2013 analog TV switchoff: What are the prospects?

A decade after the Australian Government decided to embark on the conversion of analog free-to-air television to digital transmission much remains to be done to achieve that goal. After the latest changes to the implementation program, analog switchoff is planned to occur progressively starting with a regional trial in the second half of 2010 and concluding in Sydney and Melbourne at the end of 2013. The principal reason for the delay is a much slower than hoped-for take-up of digital reception equipment by consumers. Despite the enthusiastic and optimistic predictions of policy-makers Australian households have not rushed to adopt digital TV. Initially, the high cost of converting to digital was a significant disincentive, but even after a substantial decline in conversion costs a substantial proportion of consumers remains disinterested. The paper explores whether the recent modifications to the digital TV policy are likely to be sufficient to achieve the hoped for goal of analog switchoff in 2013.