TY - JOUR
T1 - A method to identify drivers of societal change likely to affect natural assets in the future, illustrated with Australia's native biodiversity
AU - PEPPER, David
AU - Lada, Hania
AU - Thompson, J
AU - Bakar, Shuvo
AU - Lake, Phillip
AU - MAC NALLY, Ralph
PY - 2017
Y1 - 2017
N2 - Human society has a profound adverse effect on natural assets as human populations increase and as global climate changes. We need to envisage different futures that encompass plausible human responses to threats and change, and become more mindful of their likely impacts on natural assets. We describe a method for developing a set of future scenarios for a natural asset at national scale under ongoing human population growth and climate change. The method involves expansive consideration of potential drivers of societal change, a reduction of these to form a small set of key drivers to which contrasting settings are assigned, which we use to develop a set of different scenarios. We use Australia's native biodiversity as the focus to illustrate the method
AB - Human society has a profound adverse effect on natural assets as human populations increase and as global climate changes. We need to envisage different futures that encompass plausible human responses to threats and change, and become more mindful of their likely impacts on natural assets. We describe a method for developing a set of future scenarios for a natural asset at national scale under ongoing human population growth and climate change. The method involves expansive consideration of potential drivers of societal change, a reduction of these to form a small set of key drivers to which contrasting settings are assigned, which we use to develop a set of different scenarios. We use Australia's native biodiversity as the focus to illustrate the method
U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.112
DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.112
M3 - Article
VL - 581-582
SP - 80
EP - 86
JO - Science of the Total Environment
JF - Science of the Total Environment
SN - 0048-9697
ER -