A method to identify drivers of societal change likely to affect natural assets in the future, illustrated with Australia's native biodiversity

David PEPPER, Hania Lada, J Thompson, Shuvo Bakar, Phillip Lake, Ralph MAC NALLY

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    1 Citation (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Human society has a profound adverse effect on natural assets as human populations increase and as global climate changes. We need to envisage different futures that encompass plausible human responses to threats and change, and become more mindful of their likely impacts on natural assets. We describe a method for developing a set of future scenarios for a natural asset at national scale under ongoing human population growth and climate change. The method involves expansive consideration of potential drivers of societal change, a reduction of these to form a small set of key drivers to which contrasting settings are assigned, which we use to develop a set of different scenarios. We use Australia's native biodiversity as the focus to illustrate the method
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)80-86
    Number of pages7
    JournalScience of the Total Environment
    Volume581-582
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2017

    Fingerprint

    Biodiversity
    Climate change
    biodiversity
    climate change
    global climate
    population growth
    method
    human population

    Cite this

    @article{77055d9456b74c9db8530fedb6c3c099,
    title = "A method to identify drivers of societal change likely to affect natural assets in the future, illustrated with Australia's native biodiversity",
    abstract = "Human society has a profound adverse effect on natural assets as human populations increase and as global climate changes. We need to envisage different futures that encompass plausible human responses to threats and change, and become more mindful of their likely impacts on natural assets. We describe a method for developing a set of future scenarios for a natural asset at national scale under ongoing human population growth and climate change. The method involves expansive consideration of potential drivers of societal change, a reduction of these to form a small set of key drivers to which contrasting settings are assigned, which we use to develop a set of different scenarios. We use Australia's native biodiversity as the focus to illustrate the method",
    author = "David PEPPER and Hania Lada and J Thompson and Shuvo Bakar and Phillip Lake and {MAC NALLY}, Ralph",
    year = "2017",
    doi = "10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.112",
    language = "English",
    volume = "581-582",
    pages = "80--86",
    journal = "Science of the Total Environment",
    issn = "0048-9697",
    publisher = "Elsevier",

    }

    A method to identify drivers of societal change likely to affect natural assets in the future, illustrated with Australia's native biodiversity. / PEPPER, David; Lada, Hania; Thompson, J; Bakar, Shuvo; Lake, Phillip; MAC NALLY, Ralph.

    In: Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 581-582, 2017, p. 80-86.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - A method to identify drivers of societal change likely to affect natural assets in the future, illustrated with Australia's native biodiversity

    AU - PEPPER, David

    AU - Lada, Hania

    AU - Thompson, J

    AU - Bakar, Shuvo

    AU - Lake, Phillip

    AU - MAC NALLY, Ralph

    PY - 2017

    Y1 - 2017

    N2 - Human society has a profound adverse effect on natural assets as human populations increase and as global climate changes. We need to envisage different futures that encompass plausible human responses to threats and change, and become more mindful of their likely impacts on natural assets. We describe a method for developing a set of future scenarios for a natural asset at national scale under ongoing human population growth and climate change. The method involves expansive consideration of potential drivers of societal change, a reduction of these to form a small set of key drivers to which contrasting settings are assigned, which we use to develop a set of different scenarios. We use Australia's native biodiversity as the focus to illustrate the method

    AB - Human society has a profound adverse effect on natural assets as human populations increase and as global climate changes. We need to envisage different futures that encompass plausible human responses to threats and change, and become more mindful of their likely impacts on natural assets. We describe a method for developing a set of future scenarios for a natural asset at national scale under ongoing human population growth and climate change. The method involves expansive consideration of potential drivers of societal change, a reduction of these to form a small set of key drivers to which contrasting settings are assigned, which we use to develop a set of different scenarios. We use Australia's native biodiversity as the focus to illustrate the method

    U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.112

    DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.112

    M3 - Article

    VL - 581-582

    SP - 80

    EP - 86

    JO - Science of the Total Environment

    JF - Science of the Total Environment

    SN - 0048-9697

    ER -