Analysis of NHMRC Workforce data from 2000 to 2016 and associated predictive modelling

Laurie Brown, Xiaodong Gong, Jinjing Li

Research output: Book/ReportOther


This report analysed the patterns and the dynamics of applications to and funded awards of the People Support schemes administered by NHMRC over the period 2000-2015. For the purposes of the study, all of the individual People Support schemes were classified into four groups: postgraduate scholarships; early career fellowships (ECFs); career development fellowships (CDFs) for mid-career researchers; and research fellowships (RFs) for senior researchers. The analyses were
undertaken in two parts:

1. Historical data analysis 2000-2015. These analyses included a description of the distribution of the applications and the researchers over the period; a stock and flow analysis by the four People Support schemes and broad research area; and an analysis of the characteristics and the dynamics of researchers in the schemes and whether participating in one scheme interacts with their participation in and funding success in another scheme; and

2. Predictive modelling 2010-2026. A simulation model was constructed to predict the likely future application profiles to NHMRC’s People Support schemes and funded applicants over the next 10 years based on the historical patterns and trends. Three scenarios were simulated: an extension of currents patterns and trends (base case simulation); 50 per cent reduction in early career fellowships (scenario 1); and 50 per cent reduction in early career fellowships and 50 per cent increase in career development fellowships (scenario 2).

The aim is for the Report findings to be used as input into the discussions on the Structural Review of NHMRC’s Grant Program.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationCanberra
PublisherNATSEM, University of Canberra
Commissioning bodyNational Health and Medical Research Council
Number of pages58
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2017


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