@article{8f6f8e9722c34d8e826a53c115848ece,
title = "China's Health Expenditure Projections To 2035: Future Trajectory And The Estimated Impact Of Reforms",
abstract = "To understand the future trajectory of health expenditure in China if current trends continue and the estimated impact of reforms, this study projected health expenditure by disease and function from 2015 to 2035. Current health expenditure in China is projected to grow 8.4 percent annually, on average, in that period. The growth will mainly be driven by rapid increases in services per case of disease and unit cost, which respectively contribute 4.3 and 2.4 percentage points. Circulatory disease expenditure is projected to increase to 23.4 percent of health expenditure by 2035. The biggest challenge facing the Chinese health system is the projected rapid growth in inpatient services. Three percent of gross domestic product could be saved by 2035 by slowing the growth of inpatient service use from 8.2 percent per year in 2016 to 3.5 percent per year in 2035. Health expenditure in 2035 could be reduced by 3.5 percent if the smoking rate were cut in half and by 3.4 percent if the high blood pressure rate were cut by 25 percent. Future action in controlling health expenditure growth in China should focus on the high growth in inpatient services expenditure and interventions to reduce risk factors.",
keywords = "Health expenditure, Projection",
author = "Tiemin Zhai and John Goss and Tania Dmytraczenko and Yuhui Zhang and Jinjing Li and Peipei Chai",
note = "Funding Information: A previous version of this article was presented at the Biennial World Congress of the International Health Economics Association at Boston University, in Massachusetts, July 7–11, 2017. This study was funded by the World Bank and by resources committed by each of the authors. The corresponding author had full access to the data in the study and final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication. The authors thank Rachel Davey and Jim Butler for all of their helpful efforts, without which this work would not have been possible. The authors also thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions on how to improve the quality of the paper. Finally, the authors are grateful to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation for sharing prevalent case data and the China National Health Development Research Center for sharing the national health accounts data in China used in this study. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019 Project HOPE— The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.",
year = "2019",
month = may,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1377/hlthaff.2018.05324",
language = "English",
volume = "38",
pages = "835--843",
journal = "Health affairs (Project Hope)",
issn = "0278-2715",
publisher = "Project Hope",
number = "5",
}