Climate-change-driven deterioration of the condition of floodplain forest and the future for the avifauna

Ralph MAC NALLY, Hania Lada, Shaun Cunningham, Jim THOMSON, Erica Fleishman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

17 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Aim We used models of remotely sensed estimates of forest-stand condition (degree of die-back) with models of avian responses to stand condition to determine how the avifauna responded to a 13-year drought, and how the avifauna might respond to a predicted much warmer and drier climate in the next 60 years. Location Floodplain forests of the southern Murray–Darling Basin, Australia. Methods We selected 45 2-ha locations that spanned the full range of stand condition and conducted bird surveys and rapid assessments of breeding, which involved repeated measurements over the breeding season. These values were modelled as functions of stand condition and several other on-site predictors.We made hindcast estimates of the proportions of forest in different stand-condition classes. We developed a trajectory of change in these proportions under the regionally downscaled estimates of climate change under the A1F1 IPCC emission scenario, which were linked with patterns of change in drier, hotter extant forests. The hindcast and projected values were coupled with the results of the statistical models for the avifauna to provide future projections for the avifauna. Results Three avifaunal variables (measures of abundance, effective species richness and total breeding score summed for all species) were strongly related to stand condition. Hindcast estimates based on the assumption of original good condition suggested that the response variables had declined by > 25% since 1750. Projected declines in the response variables from 2009 to 2070 were > 29%, while differences between 1750 and 2070 were > 58%. Conclusions Stand condition strongly influences birds, so that reliable estimates of avifaunal change can be made by using remotely sensed estimates of stand condition. Given probable changes in forest condition under climate change, we project that the prospects for these avifauna are dire under the A1F1 or more extreme emission scenarios.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)191-202
Number of pages12
JournalGlobal Ecology and Biogeography
Volume23
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014
Externally publishedYes

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floodplain forest
avifauna
floodplains
deterioration
climate change
forest stands
birds
breeding
dieback
statistical models
trajectories
breeding season
bird
drought
basins
climate
species diversity
species richness
trajectory
basin

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MAC NALLY, Ralph ; Lada, Hania ; Cunningham, Shaun ; THOMSON, Jim ; Fleishman, Erica. / Climate-change-driven deterioration of the condition of floodplain forest and the future for the avifauna. In: Global Ecology and Biogeography. 2014 ; Vol. 23. pp. 191-202.
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title = "Climate-change-driven deterioration of the condition of floodplain forest and the future for the avifauna",
abstract = "Aim We used models of remotely sensed estimates of forest-stand condition (degree of die-back) with models of avian responses to stand condition to determine how the avifauna responded to a 13-year drought, and how the avifauna might respond to a predicted much warmer and drier climate in the next 60 years. Location Floodplain forests of the southern Murray–Darling Basin, Australia. Methods We selected 45 2-ha locations that spanned the full range of stand condition and conducted bird surveys and rapid assessments of breeding, which involved repeated measurements over the breeding season. These values were modelled as functions of stand condition and several other on-site predictors.We made hindcast estimates of the proportions of forest in different stand-condition classes. We developed a trajectory of change in these proportions under the regionally downscaled estimates of climate change under the A1F1 IPCC emission scenario, which were linked with patterns of change in drier, hotter extant forests. The hindcast and projected values were coupled with the results of the statistical models for the avifauna to provide future projections for the avifauna. Results Three avifaunal variables (measures of abundance, effective species richness and total breeding score summed for all species) were strongly related to stand condition. Hindcast estimates based on the assumption of original good condition suggested that the response variables had declined by > 25{\%} since 1750. Projected declines in the response variables from 2009 to 2070 were > 29{\%}, while differences between 1750 and 2070 were > 58{\%}. Conclusions Stand condition strongly influences birds, so that reliable estimates of avifaunal change can be made by using remotely sensed estimates of stand condition. Given probable changes in forest condition under climate change, we project that the prospects for these avifauna are dire under the A1F1 or more extreme emission scenarios.",
keywords = "Birds, extensive biodiversity assessment, floodplain forests, forest die-back, rapid biodiversity assessment, stand condition.",
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Climate-change-driven deterioration of the condition of floodplain forest and the future for the avifauna. / MAC NALLY, Ralph; Lada, Hania; Cunningham, Shaun; THOMSON, Jim; Fleishman, Erica.

In: Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 23, 2014, p. 191-202.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate-change-driven deterioration of the condition of floodplain forest and the future for the avifauna

AU - MAC NALLY, Ralph

AU - Lada, Hania

AU - Cunningham, Shaun

AU - THOMSON, Jim

AU - Fleishman, Erica

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - Aim We used models of remotely sensed estimates of forest-stand condition (degree of die-back) with models of avian responses to stand condition to determine how the avifauna responded to a 13-year drought, and how the avifauna might respond to a predicted much warmer and drier climate in the next 60 years. Location Floodplain forests of the southern Murray–Darling Basin, Australia. Methods We selected 45 2-ha locations that spanned the full range of stand condition and conducted bird surveys and rapid assessments of breeding, which involved repeated measurements over the breeding season. These values were modelled as functions of stand condition and several other on-site predictors.We made hindcast estimates of the proportions of forest in different stand-condition classes. We developed a trajectory of change in these proportions under the regionally downscaled estimates of climate change under the A1F1 IPCC emission scenario, which were linked with patterns of change in drier, hotter extant forests. The hindcast and projected values were coupled with the results of the statistical models for the avifauna to provide future projections for the avifauna. Results Three avifaunal variables (measures of abundance, effective species richness and total breeding score summed for all species) were strongly related to stand condition. Hindcast estimates based on the assumption of original good condition suggested that the response variables had declined by > 25% since 1750. Projected declines in the response variables from 2009 to 2070 were > 29%, while differences between 1750 and 2070 were > 58%. Conclusions Stand condition strongly influences birds, so that reliable estimates of avifaunal change can be made by using remotely sensed estimates of stand condition. Given probable changes in forest condition under climate change, we project that the prospects for these avifauna are dire under the A1F1 or more extreme emission scenarios.

AB - Aim We used models of remotely sensed estimates of forest-stand condition (degree of die-back) with models of avian responses to stand condition to determine how the avifauna responded to a 13-year drought, and how the avifauna might respond to a predicted much warmer and drier climate in the next 60 years. Location Floodplain forests of the southern Murray–Darling Basin, Australia. Methods We selected 45 2-ha locations that spanned the full range of stand condition and conducted bird surveys and rapid assessments of breeding, which involved repeated measurements over the breeding season. These values were modelled as functions of stand condition and several other on-site predictors.We made hindcast estimates of the proportions of forest in different stand-condition classes. We developed a trajectory of change in these proportions under the regionally downscaled estimates of climate change under the A1F1 IPCC emission scenario, which were linked with patterns of change in drier, hotter extant forests. The hindcast and projected values were coupled with the results of the statistical models for the avifauna to provide future projections for the avifauna. Results Three avifaunal variables (measures of abundance, effective species richness and total breeding score summed for all species) were strongly related to stand condition. Hindcast estimates based on the assumption of original good condition suggested that the response variables had declined by > 25% since 1750. Projected declines in the response variables from 2009 to 2070 were > 29%, while differences between 1750 and 2070 were > 58%. Conclusions Stand condition strongly influences birds, so that reliable estimates of avifaunal change can be made by using remotely sensed estimates of stand condition. Given probable changes in forest condition under climate change, we project that the prospects for these avifauna are dire under the A1F1 or more extreme emission scenarios.

KW - Birds

KW - extensive biodiversity assessment

KW - floodplain forests

KW - forest die-back

KW - rapid biodiversity assessment

KW - stand condition.

U2 - 10.1111/geb.12091

DO - 10.1111/geb.12091

M3 - Article

VL - 23

SP - 191

EP - 202

JO - Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters

JF - Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters

SN - 1466-822X

ER -