TY - JOUR
T1 - Climate change may impair electricity generation and economic viability of future Amazon hydropower
AU - Almeida, Rafael M.
AU - Fleischmann, Ayan S.
AU - Breda, Joao P. F.
AU - Cardoso, Diego S.
AU - Angarita, Hector
AU - Collischonn, Walter
AU - Forsberg, Bruce
AU - Garcia-Villacorta, Roosevelt
AU - Hamilton, Stephen K.
AU - Hannam, Phillip M.
AU - Paiva, Rodrigo
AU - Poff, N. LeRoy
AU - Sethi, Suresh A.
AU - Shi, Qinru
AU - Gomes, Carla P.
AU - Flecker, Alexander S.
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported by Cornell University's Atkinson Center for Sustainability through a Postdoctoral Fellowship to R.M.A. and the Atkinson Academic Venture Fund. We thank all participants of the Amazon Dams Computational Sustainability Working group and appreciate helpful comments from the Cornell Limnology Group.
Funding Information:
This work was supported by Cornell University’s Atkinson Center for Sustainability through a Postdoctoral Fellowship to R.M.A. and the Atkinson Academic Venture Fund. We thank all participants of the Amazon Dams Computational Sustainability Working group and appreciate helpful comments from the Cornell Limnology Group.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021
PY - 2021/11
Y1 - 2021/11
N2 - Numerous hydropower facilities are under construction or planned in tropical and subtropical rivers worldwide. While dams are typically designed considering historic river discharge regimes, climate change is likely to induce large-scale alterations in river hydrology. Here we analyze how future climate change will affect river hydrology, electricity generation, and economic viability of > 350 potential hydropower dams across the Amazon, Earth’s largest river basin and a global hotspot for future hydropower development. Midcentury projections for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios show basin-wide reductions of river discharge (means, 13 and 16%, respectively) and hydropower generation (19 and 27%). Declines are sharper for dams in Brazil, which harbors 60% of the proposed projects. Climate change will cause more frequent low-discharge interruption of hydropower generation and less frequent full-capacity operation. Consequently, the minimum electricity sale price for projects to break even more than doubles at many proposed dams, rendering much of future Amazon hydropower less competitive than increasingly lower cost renewable sources such as wind and solar. Climate-smart power systems will be fundamental to support environmentally and financially sustainable energy development in hydropower-dependent regions.
AB - Numerous hydropower facilities are under construction or planned in tropical and subtropical rivers worldwide. While dams are typically designed considering historic river discharge regimes, climate change is likely to induce large-scale alterations in river hydrology. Here we analyze how future climate change will affect river hydrology, electricity generation, and economic viability of > 350 potential hydropower dams across the Amazon, Earth’s largest river basin and a global hotspot for future hydropower development. Midcentury projections for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios show basin-wide reductions of river discharge (means, 13 and 16%, respectively) and hydropower generation (19 and 27%). Declines are sharper for dams in Brazil, which harbors 60% of the proposed projects. Climate change will cause more frequent low-discharge interruption of hydropower generation and less frequent full-capacity operation. Consequently, the minimum electricity sale price for projects to break even more than doubles at many proposed dams, rendering much of future Amazon hydropower less competitive than increasingly lower cost renewable sources such as wind and solar. Climate-smart power systems will be fundamental to support environmentally and financially sustainable energy development in hydropower-dependent regions.
KW - Hydroelectricity
KW - Levelized cost of electricity
KW - Streamflow
KW - Environmental change
KW - Energy policy
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85116088448&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102383
DO - 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102383
M3 - Article
SN - 0959-3780
VL - 71
SP - 1
EP - 10
JO - Global Environmental Change
JF - Global Environmental Change
M1 - 102383
ER -