Development of a new spatial analysis tool in mental health: identification of highly autocorrelated areas (hot-spots) of schizophrenia using a Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm model (MOEA/HS)

This study had two objectives: 1) to design and develop a computer-based tool, called Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm/Hot-Spots (MOEA/HS), to identify and geographically locate highly autocorrelated zones or hot-spots and which merges different methods, and 2) to carry out a demonstration study in a geographical area where previous information about the distribution of schizophrenia prevalence is available and which can therefore be compared. Methods - Local Indicators of Spatial Aggregation (LISA) models as well as the Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive Model (CAR) were used as objectives in a multicriteria framework when highly autocorrelated zones (hot-spots) need to be identified and geographically located. A Multi- Objective Evolutionary Algorithm (MOEA) model was designed and used to identify highly autocorrelated areas of the prevalence of schizophrenia in Andalusia. Hot-spots were statistically identified using exponential-based QQ-Plots (statistics of extremes). Results - Efficient solutions (Pareto set) from MOEA/HS were analysed statistically and one main hot-spot was identified and spatially located. Our model can be used to identify and locate geographical hot-spots of schizophrenia prevalence in a large and complicated region. Conclusions - MOEA/HS enables a compromise to be achieved between different econometric methods by highlighting very special zones in complex areas where schizophrenia shows a high autocorrelation. Declaration of Interest: This study was partly supported by the Andalusian Government, [P05-TIC-00531, PAI:P06-CTS- 01765, CTS-587,PI-338/2008]; the Ministry of Education and Science [TIN2005-08386-C05-02] and the Ministry of Health [PI08/90752]. No additional financial sources have been received. No involvements are in conflict with this paper.