Development of Healthmod: A Model of the use and costs of medical and related services in Australia

This paper describes the development of a microsimulation model ‘HealthMod’ which simulates the use and costs of medical and related services by Australian families. Australia has a universal social insurance scheme known as ‘Medicare’, which provides all Australians with access to free or low-cost essential medical services (primarily general practitioner services as well as diagnostic and imaging services). Individuals may pay a direct out-of pocket contribution if fees charged for services are higher than the reimbursement schedule set by government. Over 75% of visits to general practitioners in Australia are bulk billed to government, meaning that patients are not required to provide a copayment. HealthMod is based on the 2001 National Health Survey. This survey has a number of deficiencies in terms of modelling the Medicare Benefits Scheme (MBS). The paper outlines three major methodological steps that had to be taken in the model construction: the imputation of synthetic families, the imputation of short term health conditions, and the annualisation of doctor visits and costs. Some preliminary results on the use of doctor services provided through the MBS are presented.