Different climatic envelopes among invasive populations may lead to underestimations of current and future biological invasions

Linda Beaumont, Rachael Gallagher, Wilfried Thuiller, Paul Downey, Michelle Leishman, Lesley Hughes

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    206 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Aim We explore the impact of calibrating ecological niche models (ENMs) using (1) native range (NR) data versus (2) entire range (ER) data (native and invasive) on projections of current and future distributions of three Hieracium species. Location H. aurantiacum, H. murorum and H. pilosella are native to Europe and invasive in Australia, New Zealand and North America. Methods Differences among the native and invasive realized climatic niches of each species were quantified. Eight ENMs in BIOMOD were calibrated with (1) NR and (2) ER data. Current European, North American and Australian distributions were projected. Future Australian distributions were modelled using four climate change scenarios for 2030. Results The invasive climatic niche of H. murorum is primarily a subset of that expressed in its native range. Invasive populations of H. aurantiacum and H. pilosella occupy different climatic niches to those realized in their native ranges. Furthermore, geographically separate invasive populations of these two species have distinct climatic niches. ENMs calibrated on the realized niche of native regions projected smaller distributions than models incorporating data from species' entire ranges, and failed to correctly predict many known invasive populations. Under future climate scenarios, projected distributions decreased by similar percentages, regardless of the data used to calibrate ENMs; however, the overall sizes of projected distributions varied substantially. Main conclusions This study provides quantitative evidence that invasive populations of Hieracium species can occur in areas with different climatic conditions than experienced in their native ranges. For these, and similar species, calibration of ENMs based on NR data only will misrepresent their potential invasive distribution. These errors will propagate when estimating climate change impacts. Thus, incorporating data from species' entire distributions may result in a more thorough assessment of current and future ranges, and provides a closer approximation of the elusive fundamental niche.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)409-420
    Number of pages12
    JournalDiversity and Distributions
    Volume15
    Issue number3
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2009

    Fingerprint

    biological invasion
    niches
    niche
    Hieracium
    Pilosella aurantiaca
    climate change
    distribution
    Pilosella officinarum
    Pilosella
    ecological niche
    calibration
    biogeography
    climate

    Cite this

    Beaumont, Linda ; Gallagher, Rachael ; Thuiller, Wilfried ; Downey, Paul ; Leishman, Michelle ; Hughes, Lesley. / Different climatic envelopes among invasive populations may lead to underestimations of current and future biological invasions. In: Diversity and Distributions. 2009 ; Vol. 15, No. 3. pp. 409-420.
    @article{af32581b6b434dfe90e25ec42f274c7b,
    title = "Different climatic envelopes among invasive populations may lead to underestimations of current and future biological invasions",
    abstract = "Aim We explore the impact of calibrating ecological niche models (ENMs) using (1) native range (NR) data versus (2) entire range (ER) data (native and invasive) on projections of current and future distributions of three Hieracium species. Location H. aurantiacum, H. murorum and H. pilosella are native to Europe and invasive in Australia, New Zealand and North America. Methods Differences among the native and invasive realized climatic niches of each species were quantified. Eight ENMs in BIOMOD were calibrated with (1) NR and (2) ER data. Current European, North American and Australian distributions were projected. Future Australian distributions were modelled using four climate change scenarios for 2030. Results The invasive climatic niche of H. murorum is primarily a subset of that expressed in its native range. Invasive populations of H. aurantiacum and H. pilosella occupy different climatic niches to those realized in their native ranges. Furthermore, geographically separate invasive populations of these two species have distinct climatic niches. ENMs calibrated on the realized niche of native regions projected smaller distributions than models incorporating data from species' entire ranges, and failed to correctly predict many known invasive populations. Under future climate scenarios, projected distributions decreased by similar percentages, regardless of the data used to calibrate ENMs; however, the overall sizes of projected distributions varied substantially. Main conclusions This study provides quantitative evidence that invasive populations of Hieracium species can occur in areas with different climatic conditions than experienced in their native ranges. For these, and similar species, calibration of ENMs based on NR data only will misrepresent their potential invasive distribution. These errors will propagate when estimating climate change impacts. Thus, incorporating data from species' entire distributions may result in a more thorough assessment of current and future ranges, and provides a closer approximation of the elusive fundamental niche.",
    keywords = "Biological invasion, Climate change, Climatic niche, Ecological niche models, Hieracium, Invasive species.",
    author = "Linda Beaumont and Rachael Gallagher and Wilfried Thuiller and Paul Downey and Michelle Leishman and Lesley Hughes",
    year = "2009",
    doi = "10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00547.x",
    language = "English",
    volume = "15",
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    publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
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    Different climatic envelopes among invasive populations may lead to underestimations of current and future biological invasions. / Beaumont, Linda; Gallagher, Rachael; Thuiller, Wilfried; Downey, Paul; Leishman, Michelle; Hughes, Lesley.

    In: Diversity and Distributions, Vol. 15, No. 3, 2009, p. 409-420.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Different climatic envelopes among invasive populations may lead to underestimations of current and future biological invasions

    AU - Beaumont, Linda

    AU - Gallagher, Rachael

    AU - Thuiller, Wilfried

    AU - Downey, Paul

    AU - Leishman, Michelle

    AU - Hughes, Lesley

    PY - 2009

    Y1 - 2009

    N2 - Aim We explore the impact of calibrating ecological niche models (ENMs) using (1) native range (NR) data versus (2) entire range (ER) data (native and invasive) on projections of current and future distributions of three Hieracium species. Location H. aurantiacum, H. murorum and H. pilosella are native to Europe and invasive in Australia, New Zealand and North America. Methods Differences among the native and invasive realized climatic niches of each species were quantified. Eight ENMs in BIOMOD were calibrated with (1) NR and (2) ER data. Current European, North American and Australian distributions were projected. Future Australian distributions were modelled using four climate change scenarios for 2030. Results The invasive climatic niche of H. murorum is primarily a subset of that expressed in its native range. Invasive populations of H. aurantiacum and H. pilosella occupy different climatic niches to those realized in their native ranges. Furthermore, geographically separate invasive populations of these two species have distinct climatic niches. ENMs calibrated on the realized niche of native regions projected smaller distributions than models incorporating data from species' entire ranges, and failed to correctly predict many known invasive populations. Under future climate scenarios, projected distributions decreased by similar percentages, regardless of the data used to calibrate ENMs; however, the overall sizes of projected distributions varied substantially. Main conclusions This study provides quantitative evidence that invasive populations of Hieracium species can occur in areas with different climatic conditions than experienced in their native ranges. For these, and similar species, calibration of ENMs based on NR data only will misrepresent their potential invasive distribution. These errors will propagate when estimating climate change impacts. Thus, incorporating data from species' entire distributions may result in a more thorough assessment of current and future ranges, and provides a closer approximation of the elusive fundamental niche.

    AB - Aim We explore the impact of calibrating ecological niche models (ENMs) using (1) native range (NR) data versus (2) entire range (ER) data (native and invasive) on projections of current and future distributions of three Hieracium species. Location H. aurantiacum, H. murorum and H. pilosella are native to Europe and invasive in Australia, New Zealand and North America. Methods Differences among the native and invasive realized climatic niches of each species were quantified. Eight ENMs in BIOMOD were calibrated with (1) NR and (2) ER data. Current European, North American and Australian distributions were projected. Future Australian distributions were modelled using four climate change scenarios for 2030. Results The invasive climatic niche of H. murorum is primarily a subset of that expressed in its native range. Invasive populations of H. aurantiacum and H. pilosella occupy different climatic niches to those realized in their native ranges. Furthermore, geographically separate invasive populations of these two species have distinct climatic niches. ENMs calibrated on the realized niche of native regions projected smaller distributions than models incorporating data from species' entire ranges, and failed to correctly predict many known invasive populations. Under future climate scenarios, projected distributions decreased by similar percentages, regardless of the data used to calibrate ENMs; however, the overall sizes of projected distributions varied substantially. Main conclusions This study provides quantitative evidence that invasive populations of Hieracium species can occur in areas with different climatic conditions than experienced in their native ranges. For these, and similar species, calibration of ENMs based on NR data only will misrepresent their potential invasive distribution. These errors will propagate when estimating climate change impacts. Thus, incorporating data from species' entire distributions may result in a more thorough assessment of current and future ranges, and provides a closer approximation of the elusive fundamental niche.

    KW - Biological invasion

    KW - Climate change

    KW - Climatic niche

    KW - Ecological niche models

    KW - Hieracium

    KW - Invasive species.

    U2 - 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00547.x

    DO - 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00547.x

    M3 - Article

    VL - 15

    SP - 409

    EP - 420

    JO - Diversity and Distributions

    JF - Diversity and Distributions

    SN - 1366-9516

    IS - 3

    ER -