TY - JOUR
T1 - Dispersal and climate warming determine range shift in model reptile populations
AU - Boyle, Maria
AU - Schwanz, Lisa
AU - HONE, Jim
AU - GEORGES, Arthur
PY - 2016
Y1 - 2016
N2 - Average air temperature is predicted to rise by at least 3 °C across the 21st century. As individual sex (male or female) is determined by temperature in many reptiles, there are concerns that climate warming will skew offspring sex ratios and local species extinctions will follow. Range shift away from hotter areas through dispersal may prevent species extinctions in many reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), and could be facilitated or impeded by sex-biased populations at the expanding edge. We used a simulation model to examine the role of sex-determining mechanism [TSD and genotypic sex determination (GSD)], climate warming and dispersal in determining range shift and population growth in reptiles. Dispersal influenced range shift (after climate warming) in TSD species to a greater extent than in GSD species. Our novel finding is that biased sex ratios may influence range shift, through the mixing of the rare sex (females) with males located at the colder range edges, as both sexes disperse. However, if faced with climate warming of 3 °C over the next 100 years many TSD reptiles will show limited capacity for range shift.
AB - Average air temperature is predicted to rise by at least 3 °C across the 21st century. As individual sex (male or female) is determined by temperature in many reptiles, there are concerns that climate warming will skew offspring sex ratios and local species extinctions will follow. Range shift away from hotter areas through dispersal may prevent species extinctions in many reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), and could be facilitated or impeded by sex-biased populations at the expanding edge. We used a simulation model to examine the role of sex-determining mechanism [TSD and genotypic sex determination (GSD)], climate warming and dispersal in determining range shift and population growth in reptiles. Dispersal influenced range shift (after climate warming) in TSD species to a greater extent than in GSD species. Our novel finding is that biased sex ratios may influence range shift, through the mixing of the rare sex (females) with males located at the colder range edges, as both sexes disperse. However, if faced with climate warming of 3 °C over the next 100 years many TSD reptiles will show limited capacity for range shift.
KW - Climate warming
KW - Dispersal
KW - Range shift
KW - Temperature-dependent sex determination
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84959276109&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.mendeley.com/research/dispersal-climate-warming-determine-range-shift-model-reptile-populations
U2 - 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.02.011
DO - 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.02.011
M3 - Article
SN - 0304-3800
VL - 328
SP - 34
EP - 43
JO - Ecological Modelling
JF - Ecological Modelling
ER -