Dispersal and climate warming determine range shift in model reptile populations

Maria Boyle, Lisa Schwanz, Jim HONE, Arthur GEORGES

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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    Abstract

    Average air temperature is predicted to rise by at least 3 °C across the 21st century. As individual sex (male or female) is determined by temperature in many reptiles, there are concerns that climate warming will skew offspring sex ratios and local species extinctions will follow. Range shift away from hotter areas through dispersal may prevent species extinctions in many reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), and could be facilitated or impeded by sex-biased populations at the expanding edge. We used a simulation model to examine the role of sex-determining mechanism [TSD and genotypic sex determination (GSD)], climate warming and dispersal in determining range shift and population growth in reptiles. Dispersal influenced range shift (after climate warming) in TSD species to a greater extent than in GSD species. Our novel finding is that biased sex ratios may influence range shift, through the mixing of the rare sex (females) with males located at the colder range edges, as both sexes disperse. However, if faced with climate warming of 3 °C over the next 100 years many TSD reptiles will show limited capacity for range shift.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)34-43
    Number of pages10
    JournalEcological Modelling
    Volume328
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2016

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    sex determination
    reptile
    warming
    climate
    temperature
    sex ratio
    extinction
    twenty first century
    population growth
    air temperature
    simulation

    Cite this

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    title = "Dispersal and climate warming determine range shift in model reptile populations",
    abstract = "Average air temperature is predicted to rise by at least 3 °C across the 21st century. As individual sex (male or female) is determined by temperature in many reptiles, there are concerns that climate warming will skew offspring sex ratios and local species extinctions will follow. Range shift away from hotter areas through dispersal may prevent species extinctions in many reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), and could be facilitated or impeded by sex-biased populations at the expanding edge. We used a simulation model to examine the role of sex-determining mechanism [TSD and genotypic sex determination (GSD)], climate warming and dispersal in determining range shift and population growth in reptiles. Dispersal influenced range shift (after climate warming) in TSD species to a greater extent than in GSD species. Our novel finding is that biased sex ratios may influence range shift, through the mixing of the rare sex (females) with males located at the colder range edges, as both sexes disperse. However, if faced with climate warming of 3 °C over the next 100 years many TSD reptiles will show limited capacity for range shift.",
    author = "Maria Boyle and Lisa Schwanz and Jim HONE and Arthur GEORGES",
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    language = "English",
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    pages = "34--43",
    journal = "Ecological Modelling",
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    Dispersal and climate warming determine range shift in model reptile populations. / Boyle, Maria; Schwanz, Lisa; HONE, Jim; GEORGES, Arthur.

    In: Ecological Modelling, Vol. 328, 2016, p. 34-43.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Dispersal and climate warming determine range shift in model reptile populations

    AU - Boyle, Maria

    AU - Schwanz, Lisa

    AU - HONE, Jim

    AU - GEORGES, Arthur

    PY - 2016

    Y1 - 2016

    N2 - Average air temperature is predicted to rise by at least 3 °C across the 21st century. As individual sex (male or female) is determined by temperature in many reptiles, there are concerns that climate warming will skew offspring sex ratios and local species extinctions will follow. Range shift away from hotter areas through dispersal may prevent species extinctions in many reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), and could be facilitated or impeded by sex-biased populations at the expanding edge. We used a simulation model to examine the role of sex-determining mechanism [TSD and genotypic sex determination (GSD)], climate warming and dispersal in determining range shift and population growth in reptiles. Dispersal influenced range shift (after climate warming) in TSD species to a greater extent than in GSD species. Our novel finding is that biased sex ratios may influence range shift, through the mixing of the rare sex (females) with males located at the colder range edges, as both sexes disperse. However, if faced with climate warming of 3 °C over the next 100 years many TSD reptiles will show limited capacity for range shift.

    AB - Average air temperature is predicted to rise by at least 3 °C across the 21st century. As individual sex (male or female) is determined by temperature in many reptiles, there are concerns that climate warming will skew offspring sex ratios and local species extinctions will follow. Range shift away from hotter areas through dispersal may prevent species extinctions in many reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), and could be facilitated or impeded by sex-biased populations at the expanding edge. We used a simulation model to examine the role of sex-determining mechanism [TSD and genotypic sex determination (GSD)], climate warming and dispersal in determining range shift and population growth in reptiles. Dispersal influenced range shift (after climate warming) in TSD species to a greater extent than in GSD species. Our novel finding is that biased sex ratios may influence range shift, through the mixing of the rare sex (females) with males located at the colder range edges, as both sexes disperse. However, if faced with climate warming of 3 °C over the next 100 years many TSD reptiles will show limited capacity for range shift.

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    SN - 0304-3800

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