Early warning indicators for emerging economies

John Hawkins, Marc Klau

Research output: Contribution to conference (non-published works)Paper

Abstract

This paper summarises work on early warning indicators for emerging economies. It describes in particular the use within the BIS of relatively simple indices summarising information about emerging economies currently under pressure in financial markets and those vulnerable to such pressure in the future. The survey of the literature suggests financial crises are typically preceded by overvalued exchange rates, inadequate international reserves, large foreign debt, recessions and excessive credit growth. These indicators are included in the summary indices of vulnerability. The vulnerability indices have modest predictive power for the pressure index but like other early warning signals are best regarded as an aid to analysis rather than a definitive predictive tool.
Original languageEnglish
Pages166-176
Number of pages11
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2002
EventIrving Fisher Committee Conference 2002: Challenges to Central Bank Statistical Activities - Basel, Basel, Switzerland
Duration: 20 Aug 200222 Aug 2002

Conference

ConferenceIrving Fisher Committee Conference 2002
Abbreviated titleIFC 2002
CountrySwitzerland
CityBasel
Period20/08/0222/08/02

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Hawkins, J., & Klau, M. (2002). Early warning indicators for emerging economies. 166-176. Paper presented at Irving Fisher Committee Conference 2002, Basel, Switzerland.