TY - JOUR
T1 - Economic costs of chronic disease through lost productive life years (PLYs) among Australians aged 45–64 years from 2015 to 2030
T2 - Results from a microsimulation model
AU - Schofield, Deborah
AU - Shrestha, Rupendra N.
AU - Cunich, Michelle M.
AU - Tanton, Robert
AU - Veerman, Lennert
AU - Kelly, Simon J.
AU - Passey, Megan E.
N1 - Funding Information:
1Faculty of Pharmacy, Charles Perkins Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia 2Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, Royal Children’s Hospital Flemington Road, Parkville, Victoria, Australia 3Garvan Institute of Medical Research, Victoria Street, Darlinghurst, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia 4National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia 5Faculty of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia 6University Centre for Rural Health, School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Lismore, New South Wales, Australia Funding The development of the microsimulation model used in this research, Health&WealthMOD2030, was funded by the Australian Research Council (under grant LP100100158), and Pfizer Australia was a partner to the grant. MP was funded by fellowships from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the NSW Cancer Institute and the Sydney Medical School Foundation. All authors are independent from the funding sources, and the funding sources (including Pfizer Australia) played no part in the research design, undertaking of the analysis, formulation or interpretation of the results, decision to publish the research findings, nor in any other part of the research process.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved.
PY - 2016/1/1
Y1 - 2016/1/1
N2 - Objectives: To project the number of older workers with lost productive life years (PLYs) due to chronic disease and resultant lost income; and lost taxes and increased welfare payments from 2015 to 2030. Design, setting and participants: Using a microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, the costs of chronic disease in Australians aged 45–64 were projected to 2030. The model integrates household survey data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (SDACs) 2003 and 2009, output from long-standing microsimulation models (STINMOD (Static Incomes Model) and APPSIM (Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model)) used by various government departments, population and labour force growth data from Treasury, and disease trends data from the Australian Burden of Disease and Injury Study (2003). Respondents aged 45–64 years in the SDACs 2003 and 2009 formed the base population. Main outcome measures: Lost PLYs due to chronic disease; resultant lost income, lost taxes and increased welfare payments in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030. Results: We projected 380 000 (6.4%) people aged 45–64 years with lost PLYs in 2015, increasing to 462 000 (6.5%) in 2030—a 22% increase in absolute numbers. Those with lost PLYs experience the largest reduction in income than any other group in each year compared to those employed full time without a chronic disease, and this income gap widens over time. The total economic loss due to lost PLYs consisted of lost income modelled at $A12.6 billion in 2015, increasing to $A20.5 billion in 2030—a 62.7% increase. Additional costs to the government consisted of increased welfare payments at $A6.2 billion in 2015, increasing to $A7.3 billion in 2030—a 17.7% increase; and a loss of $A3.1 billion in taxes in 2015, increasing to $A4.7 billion in 2030—a growth of 51.6%. Conclusions: There is a need for greater investment in effective preventive health interventions which improve workers’ health and work capacity.
AB - Objectives: To project the number of older workers with lost productive life years (PLYs) due to chronic disease and resultant lost income; and lost taxes and increased welfare payments from 2015 to 2030. Design, setting and participants: Using a microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, the costs of chronic disease in Australians aged 45–64 were projected to 2030. The model integrates household survey data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (SDACs) 2003 and 2009, output from long-standing microsimulation models (STINMOD (Static Incomes Model) and APPSIM (Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model)) used by various government departments, population and labour force growth data from Treasury, and disease trends data from the Australian Burden of Disease and Injury Study (2003). Respondents aged 45–64 years in the SDACs 2003 and 2009 formed the base population. Main outcome measures: Lost PLYs due to chronic disease; resultant lost income, lost taxes and increased welfare payments in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030. Results: We projected 380 000 (6.4%) people aged 45–64 years with lost PLYs in 2015, increasing to 462 000 (6.5%) in 2030—a 22% increase in absolute numbers. Those with lost PLYs experience the largest reduction in income than any other group in each year compared to those employed full time without a chronic disease, and this income gap widens over time. The total economic loss due to lost PLYs consisted of lost income modelled at $A12.6 billion in 2015, increasing to $A20.5 billion in 2030—a 62.7% increase. Additional costs to the government consisted of increased welfare payments at $A6.2 billion in 2015, increasing to $A7.3 billion in 2030—a 17.7% increase; and a loss of $A3.1 billion in taxes in 2015, increasing to $A4.7 billion in 2030—a growth of 51.6%. Conclusions: There is a need for greater investment in effective preventive health interventions which improve workers’ health and work capacity.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85046960236&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011151
DO - 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011151
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85046960236
SN - 2044-6055
VL - 6
SP - 1
EP - 9
JO - BMJ Open
JF - BMJ Open
IS - 9
ER -