Economic forecasts and their assessment

Ian Macfarlane, John HAWKINS

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper looks at the accuracy of economic forecasts and whether it is possible to rank different forecasters by their degree of accuracy. The first section examines the accuracy of economic forecasts in general and by examining a subset of twelve Australian forecasters over a five year period. The second section addresses the question of whether it is possible to rank forecasters in order of merit. The paper concludes that the problems are sufficiently large for it to be unlikely that a meaningful and stable ranking could be obtained.
LanguageEnglish
Pages321-331
Number of pages11
JournalEconomic Record
Volume59
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - Dec 1983
Externally publishedYes

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Macfarlane, Ian ; HAWKINS, John. / Economic forecasts and their assessment. In: Economic Record. 1983 ; Vol. 59, No. 4. pp. 321-331.
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Macfarlane, I & HAWKINS, J 1983, 'Economic forecasts and their assessment', Economic Record, vol. 59, no. 4, pp. 321-331.

Economic forecasts and their assessment. / Macfarlane, Ian; HAWKINS, John.

In: Economic Record, Vol. 59, No. 4, 12.1983, p. 321-331.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AB - This paper looks at the accuracy of economic forecasts and whether it is possible to rank different forecasters by their degree of accuracy. The first section examines the accuracy of economic forecasts in general and by examining a subset of twelve Australian forecasters over a five year period. The second section addresses the question of whether it is possible to rank forecasters in order of merit. The paper concludes that the problems are sufficiently large for it to be unlikely that a meaningful and stable ranking could be obtained.

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