Abstract
Australians 25 years of age and over who are expected to have pre-diabetes and type 2 diabetes over a
45 year simulation period. The model also simulates control of the disease in terms of glycaemic levels,
cholesterol levels, weight and blood pressure control. The model produces a wide range of
epidemiological and economic outputs to assess the current and projected impact of those with the
disease. The number and cost of complications associated with type 2 diabetes, conditioning on the level
of diabetes control, are also projected.
The model also provides the capacity to quantify the effect of hypothetical public health initiatives in the
management of type 2 diabetes and associated trends in risk factor prevalence and diabetes control over
the simulation period. While the benefits of such programs often will not manifest until many years after
implementation, the Diabetes Model simulation period enables long term benefits to be assessed beyond
traditional government planning horizons. By comparing the results of the base case status quo
projection to alternative simulations premised on interventions that either reduce the prevalence of
diabetes risk factors or improve diabetes control among those known to have the disease, it is possible to
identify the extent to which short run investments can reap long term benefits in both human and
economic terms.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 71-80 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | International Journal of Microsimulation |
| Volume | 4 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| Publication status | Published - 2011 |
Fingerprint
Cite this
}
Economic Modelling of the Prevention of Type 2 Diabetes in Australia - The Diabetes Model. / Thurecht, Linc; Brown, Laurie; Yap, Mandy.
In: International Journal of Microsimulation, Vol. 4, No. 3, 2011, p. 71-80.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
TY - JOUR
T1 - Economic Modelling of the Prevention of Type 2 Diabetes in Australia - The Diabetes Model
AU - Thurecht, Linc
AU - Brown, Laurie
AU - Yap, Mandy
PY - 2011
Y1 - 2011
N2 - This paper outlines the development of the Diabetes Model which projects the number ofAustralians 25 years of age and over who are expected to have pre-diabetes and type 2 diabetes over a45 year simulation period. The model also simulates control of the disease in terms of glycaemic levels,cholesterol levels, weight and blood pressure control. The model produces a wide range ofepidemiological and economic outputs to assess the current and projected impact of those with thedisease. The number and cost of complications associated with type 2 diabetes, conditioning on the levelof diabetes control, are also projected.The model also provides the capacity to quantify the effect of hypothetical public health initiatives in themanagement of type 2 diabetes and associated trends in risk factor prevalence and diabetes control overthe simulation period. While the benefits of such programs often will not manifest until many years afterimplementation, the Diabetes Model simulation period enables long term benefits to be assessed beyondtraditional government planning horizons. By comparing the results of the base case status quoprojection to alternative simulations premised on interventions that either reduce the prevalence ofdiabetes risk factors or improve diabetes control among those known to have the disease, it is possible toidentify the extent to which short run investments can reap long term benefits in both human andeconomic terms.
AB - This paper outlines the development of the Diabetes Model which projects the number ofAustralians 25 years of age and over who are expected to have pre-diabetes and type 2 diabetes over a45 year simulation period. The model also simulates control of the disease in terms of glycaemic levels,cholesterol levels, weight and blood pressure control. The model produces a wide range ofepidemiological and economic outputs to assess the current and projected impact of those with thedisease. The number and cost of complications associated with type 2 diabetes, conditioning on the levelof diabetes control, are also projected.The model also provides the capacity to quantify the effect of hypothetical public health initiatives in themanagement of type 2 diabetes and associated trends in risk factor prevalence and diabetes control overthe simulation period. While the benefits of such programs often will not manifest until many years afterimplementation, the Diabetes Model simulation period enables long term benefits to be assessed beyondtraditional government planning horizons. By comparing the results of the base case status quoprojection to alternative simulations premised on interventions that either reduce the prevalence ofdiabetes risk factors or improve diabetes control among those known to have the disease, it is possible toidentify the extent to which short run investments can reap long term benefits in both human andeconomic terms.
M3 - Article
VL - 4
SP - 71
EP - 80
JO - International Journal of Microsimulation
JF - International Journal of Microsimulation
SN - 1747-5864
IS - 3
ER -