Economic Output Trends and Regional Disparities Across Vietnam's Provinces, 2010–2023

Background
Building on our previous study, which identified six convergence clubs among Vietnam's 63 provinces, this paper provides the first comprehensive examination of the evolution and dynamics of provincial GDP per capita inequality within each club over the period 2010–2023.

Methods
This study employs σ-convergence, the Theil index, and the Gini coefficient to assess trends and patterns of inequality in provincial GDP per capita within each convergence club. In addition, time-series techniques are used to analyse the growth trajectory of each province or city relative to the national average. The analysis is complemented by an exploration of key provincial characteristics and the main factors underlying the observed patterns of inequality across convergence clubs.

Results
The findings indicate a general decline in GDP per capita inequality across all convergence clubs over the study period. Whereas only nine provinces recorded GDP per capita above the national average in 2010, a considerably larger number of provinces exhibited upward convergence toward the national benchmark by 2023. Despite this progress, a group of persistently underperforming provinces remains, predominantly located in geographically remote and economically disadvantaged areas. The results also underscore the important roles of total investment and foreign direct investment in driving the observed reduction in output inequality across convergence clubs.

Policy Implications
There is a need to strengthen spillover effects from high-performing provinces, foster more inclusive economic growth in lagging regions, and implement targeted interventions to reduce interprovincial income disparities in Vietnam.