Abstract
Defence and security organisations rely on the use of scenarios for a wide range of activities; from strategic and contingency planning to training and experimentation exercises. In the grand strategic space, scenarios normally take the form of linguistic stories, whereby a picture of a context is painted using storytelling principles. The manner in which these stories are narrated can paint different mental models in planners’ minds and open opportunities for the realisation of different contextualisations and initialisations of these stories. In this chapter, we review some scenario design methods in the defence and security domain.We then illustrate how evolutionary computation techniques can be used to evolve different narrations of a strategic story. First, we present a simple representation of a story that allows evolution to operate on it in a simple manner. However, the simplicity of the representation comes with the cost of designing a set of linguistic constraints and transformations to guarantee that any random chromosome can get transformed into a unique coherent and causally consistent story. Second, we demonstrate that the representation being utilised in this approach can simultaneously serve as the basis to form a strategic story as well as the basis to design simulation models to evaluate these stories. This flexibility fulfils a large gap in current scenario planning methodologies, whereby the strategic scenario is represented in the form of a linguistic story, while the evaluation of that scenario is completely left for the human to subjectively decide on it.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | Recent Advances in Computational Intelligence in Defense and Security |
| Editors | Rami Abielmona, Rafael Falcon, Nur Zincir-Heywood, Hussein A. Abbass |
| Place of Publication | Switzerland |
| Publisher | Springer-Verlag London Ltd. |
| Chapter | 23 |
| Pages | 635-661 |
| Number of pages | 27 |
| ISBN (Electronic) | 9783319264509 |
| ISBN (Print) | 9783319264486 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2016 |
Publication series
| Name | Studies in Computational Intelligence |
|---|---|
| Volume | 621 |
| ISSN (Print) | 1860-949X |
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Evolving narrations of strategic defence and security scenarios for computational scenario planning. / Wang, Kun; Petraki, Eleni; Abbass, Hussein.
Recent Advances in Computational Intelligence in Defense and Security. ed. / Rami Abielmona; Rafael Falcon; Nur Zincir-Heywood; Hussein A. Abbass. Switzerland : Springer-Verlag London Ltd., 2016. p. 635-661 (Studies in Computational Intelligence; Vol. 621).Research output: A Conference proceeding or a Chapter in Book › Chapter
TY - CHAP
T1 - Evolving narrations of strategic defence and security scenarios for computational scenario planning
AU - Wang, Kun
AU - Petraki, Eleni
AU - Abbass, Hussein
PY - 2016
Y1 - 2016
N2 - Defence and security organisations rely on the use of scenarios for a wide range of activities; from strategic and contingency planning to training and experimentation exercises. In the grand strategic space, scenarios normally take the form of linguistic stories, whereby a picture of a context is painted using storytelling principles. The manner in which these stories are narrated can paint different mental models in planners’ minds and open opportunities for the realisation of different contextualisations and initialisations of these stories. In this chapter, we review some scenario design methods in the defence and security domain.We then illustrate how evolutionary computation techniques can be used to evolve different narrations of a strategic story. First, we present a simple representation of a story that allows evolution to operate on it in a simple manner. However, the simplicity of the representation comes with the cost of designing a set of linguistic constraints and transformations to guarantee that any random chromosome can get transformed into a unique coherent and causally consistent story. Second, we demonstrate that the representation being utilised in this approach can simultaneously serve as the basis to form a strategic story as well as the basis to design simulation models to evaluate these stories. This flexibility fulfils a large gap in current scenario planning methodologies, whereby the strategic scenario is represented in the form of a linguistic story, while the evaluation of that scenario is completely left for the human to subjectively decide on it.
AB - Defence and security organisations rely on the use of scenarios for a wide range of activities; from strategic and contingency planning to training and experimentation exercises. In the grand strategic space, scenarios normally take the form of linguistic stories, whereby a picture of a context is painted using storytelling principles. The manner in which these stories are narrated can paint different mental models in planners’ minds and open opportunities for the realisation of different contextualisations and initialisations of these stories. In this chapter, we review some scenario design methods in the defence and security domain.We then illustrate how evolutionary computation techniques can be used to evolve different narrations of a strategic story. First, we present a simple representation of a story that allows evolution to operate on it in a simple manner. However, the simplicity of the representation comes with the cost of designing a set of linguistic constraints and transformations to guarantee that any random chromosome can get transformed into a unique coherent and causally consistent story. Second, we demonstrate that the representation being utilised in this approach can simultaneously serve as the basis to form a strategic story as well as the basis to design simulation models to evaluate these stories. This flexibility fulfils a large gap in current scenario planning methodologies, whereby the strategic scenario is represented in the form of a linguistic story, while the evaluation of that scenario is completely left for the human to subjectively decide on it.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84951858739&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.mendeley.com/research/evolving-narrations-strategic-defence-security-scenarios-computational-scenario-planning
U2 - 10.1007/978-3-319-26450-9_23
DO - 10.1007/978-3-319-26450-9_23
M3 - Chapter
SN - 9783319264486
T3 - Studies in Computational Intelligence
SP - 635
EP - 661
BT - Recent Advances in Computational Intelligence in Defense and Security
A2 - Abielmona, Rami
A2 - Falcon, Rafael
A2 - Zincir-Heywood, Nur
A2 - Abbass, Hussein A.
PB - Springer-Verlag London Ltd.
CY - Switzerland
ER -