TY - JOUR
T1 - Future air pollution related health burdens associated with RCP emission changes in the UK
AU - Fenech, Sara
AU - Doherty, Ruth M.
AU - O'Connor, Fiona M.
AU - Heaviside, Clare
AU - Macintyre, Helen L.
AU - Vardoulakis, Sotiris
AU - Agnew, Paul
AU - Neal, Lucy S.
N1 - Funding Information:
Sara Fenech's PhD was funded by Public Health England (PHE). The development of the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol (UKCA) Model and Fiona M. O'Connor is supported by the Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). Clare Heaviside is supported by a NERC fellowship (NE/R01440X/1). The research was part funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Environmental Change and Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in partnership with Public Health England (PHE), and in collaboration with the University of Exeter, University College London, and the Met Office UK. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, the Department of Health or Public Health England.
Funding Information:
Sara Fenech's PhD was funded by Public Health England (PHE). The development of the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol (UKCA) Model and Fiona M. O'Connor is supported by the Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme ( GA01101 ). Clare Heaviside is supported by a NERC fellowship ( NE/R01440X/1 ). The research was part funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Environmental Change and Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in partnership with Public Health England (PHE), and in collaboration with the University of Exeter, University College London, and the Met Office UK. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, the Department of Health or Public Health England.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2021/6/15
Y1 - 2021/6/15
N2 - Three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used to simulate future ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the United Kingdom (UK) for the 2050s relative to the 2000s with an air quality model (AQUM) at a 12 km horizontal resolution. The present-day and future attributable fractions (AF) of mortality associated with long-term exposure to annual mean O3, NO2 and PM2.5 have accordingly been estimated for the first time for regions across England, Scotland and Wales. Across the three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), simulated annual mean of the daily maximum 8-h mean (MDA8) O3 concentrations increase compared to present-day, likely due to decreases in NOx (nitrogen oxides) emissions, leading to less titration of O3 by NO. Annual mean NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations decrease under all RCPs for the 2050s, mostly driven by decreases in NOx and sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions, respectively. The AF of mortality associated with long-term exposure to annual mean MDA8 O3 is estimated to increase in the future across all the regions and for all RCPs. Reductions in NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations lead to reductions in the AF estimated for future periods under all RCPs, for both pollutants. Total mortality burdens are also highly sensitive to future population projections. Accounting for population projections exacerbates differences in total UK-wide MDA8 O3-health burdens between present-day and future by up to a factor of ~3 but diminishes differences in NO2-health burdens. For PM2.5, accounting for future population projections results in additional UK-wide deaths brought forward compared to present-day under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, even though the simulated PM2.5 concentrations for the 2050s are estimated to decrease. Thus, these results highlight the sensitivity of future health burdens in the UK to future trends in atmospheric emissions over the UK as well as future population projections.
AB - Three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used to simulate future ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the United Kingdom (UK) for the 2050s relative to the 2000s with an air quality model (AQUM) at a 12 km horizontal resolution. The present-day and future attributable fractions (AF) of mortality associated with long-term exposure to annual mean O3, NO2 and PM2.5 have accordingly been estimated for the first time for regions across England, Scotland and Wales. Across the three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), simulated annual mean of the daily maximum 8-h mean (MDA8) O3 concentrations increase compared to present-day, likely due to decreases in NOx (nitrogen oxides) emissions, leading to less titration of O3 by NO. Annual mean NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations decrease under all RCPs for the 2050s, mostly driven by decreases in NOx and sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions, respectively. The AF of mortality associated with long-term exposure to annual mean MDA8 O3 is estimated to increase in the future across all the regions and for all RCPs. Reductions in NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations lead to reductions in the AF estimated for future periods under all RCPs, for both pollutants. Total mortality burdens are also highly sensitive to future population projections. Accounting for population projections exacerbates differences in total UK-wide MDA8 O3-health burdens between present-day and future by up to a factor of ~3 but diminishes differences in NO2-health burdens. For PM2.5, accounting for future population projections results in additional UK-wide deaths brought forward compared to present-day under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, even though the simulated PM2.5 concentrations for the 2050s are estimated to decrease. Thus, these results highlight the sensitivity of future health burdens in the UK to future trends in atmospheric emissions over the UK as well as future population projections.
KW - Climate change
KW - Health impacts
KW - Nitrogen dioxide
KW - Ozone
KW - Particulate matter
KW - Population projections
KW - RCPs
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85100723772&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145635
DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145635
M3 - Article
C2 - 33582353
AN - SCOPUS:85100723772
SN - 0048-9697
VL - 773
SP - 1
EP - 39
JO - Science of the Total Environment
JF - Science of the Total Environment
M1 - 145635
ER -
