Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100

O.E. Sala, F.S. Chapin III, J.J. Armesto, E. Berlow, J. Bloomfield, R. Dirzo, E. Huber-Sanwald, L.F. Huenneke, R.B. Jackson, A. Kinzig, Rik Leemans, D.M. Lodge, H.A. Mooney, M. Oesterheld, LeRoy POFF, M.T. Sykes, Michael Walker, D.H. Wall, Brian H Walker

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    4906 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1770-1774
    Number of pages5
    JournalScience
    Volume287
    Issue number5459
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2000

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    biodiversity
    biome
    ranking
    land use change
    carbon dioxide
    freshwater ecosystem
    terrestrial ecosystem
    land use
    climate change
    vegetation
    nitrogen
    climate

    Cite this

    Sala, O. E., Chapin III, F. S., Armesto, J. J., Berlow, E., Bloomfield, J., Dirzo, R., ... Walker, B. H. (2000). Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science, 287(5459), 1770-1774. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5459.1770
    Sala, O.E. ; Chapin III, F.S. ; Armesto, J.J. ; Berlow, E. ; Bloomfield, J. ; Dirzo, R. ; Huber-Sanwald, E. ; Huenneke, L.F. ; Jackson, R.B. ; Kinzig, A. ; Leemans, Rik ; Lodge, D.M. ; Mooney, H.A. ; Oesterheld, M. ; POFF, LeRoy ; Sykes, M.T. ; Walker, Michael ; Wall, D.H. ; Walker, Brian H . / Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. In: Science. 2000 ; Vol. 287, No. 5459. pp. 1770-1774.
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    abstract = "Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.",
    author = "O.E. Sala and {Chapin III}, F.S. and J.J. Armesto and E. Berlow and J. Bloomfield and R. Dirzo and E. Huber-Sanwald and L.F. Huenneke and R.B. Jackson and A. Kinzig and Rik Leemans and D.M. Lodge and H.A. Mooney and M. Oesterheld and LeRoy POFF and M.T. Sykes and Michael Walker and D.H. Wall and Walker, {Brian H}",
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    Sala, OE, Chapin III, FS, Armesto, JJ, Berlow, E, Bloomfield, J, Dirzo, R, Huber-Sanwald, E, Huenneke, LF, Jackson, RB, Kinzig, A, Leemans, R, Lodge, DM, Mooney, HA, Oesterheld, M, POFF, L, Sykes, MT, Walker, M, Wall, DH & Walker, BH 2000, 'Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100', Science, vol. 287, no. 5459, pp. 1770-1774. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5459.1770

    Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. / Sala, O.E.; Chapin III, F.S.; Armesto, J.J.; Berlow, E.; Bloomfield, J.; Dirzo, R.; Huber-Sanwald, E.; Huenneke, L.F.; Jackson, R.B.; Kinzig, A.; Leemans, Rik; Lodge, D.M.; Mooney, H.A.; Oesterheld, M.; POFF, LeRoy; Sykes, M.T.; Walker, Michael; Wall, D.H.; Walker, Brian H .

    In: Science, Vol. 287, No. 5459, 2000, p. 1770-1774.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100

    AU - Sala, O.E.

    AU - Chapin III, F.S.

    AU - Armesto, J.J.

    AU - Berlow, E.

    AU - Bloomfield, J.

    AU - Dirzo, R.

    AU - Huber-Sanwald, E.

    AU - Huenneke, L.F.

    AU - Jackson, R.B.

    AU - Kinzig, A.

    AU - Leemans, Rik

    AU - Lodge, D.M.

    AU - Mooney, H.A.

    AU - Oesterheld, M.

    AU - POFF, LeRoy

    AU - Sykes, M.T.

    AU - Walker, Michael

    AU - Wall, D.H.

    AU - Walker, Brian H

    N1 - cited By 3781

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    Y1 - 2000

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    AB - Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.

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    DO - 10.1126/science.287.5459.1770

    M3 - Article

    VL - 287

    SP - 1770

    EP - 1774

    JO - The Scientific monthly

    JF - The Scientific monthly

    SN - 0036-8075

    IS - 5459

    ER -

    Sala OE, Chapin III FS, Armesto JJ, Berlow E, Bloomfield J, Dirzo R et al. Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science. 2000;287(5459):1770-1774. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5459.1770