Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100

O.E. Sala; F.S. Chapin III; J.J. Armesto; E. Berlow; J. Bloomfield; R. Dirzo; E. Huber-Sanwald; L.F. Huenneke; R.B. Jackson; A. Kinzig; Rik Leemans; D.M. Lodge; H.A. Mooney; M. Oesterheld; LeRoy POFF; M.T. Sykes; Michael Walker; D.H. Wall; Brian H  Walker

doi:10.1126/science.287.5459.1770

Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100

O.E. Sala, F.S. Chapin III, J.J. Armesto, E. Berlow, J. Bloomfield, R. Dirzo, E. Huber-Sanwald, L.F. Huenneke, R.B. Jackson, A. Kinzig, Rik Leemans, D.M. Lodge, H.A. Mooney, M. Oesterheld, LeRoy POFF, M.T. Sykes, Michael Walker, D.H. Wall, Brian H Walker

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

7036 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1770-1774
Number of pages	5
Journal	Science
Volume	287
Issue number	5459
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5459.1770
Publication status	Published - 2000

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1126/science.287.5459.1770

Cite this

Sala, O. E., Chapin III, F. S., Armesto, J. J., Berlow, E., Bloomfield, J., Dirzo, R., Huber-Sanwald, E., Huenneke, L. F., Jackson, R. B., Kinzig, A., Leemans, R., Lodge, D. M., Mooney, H. A., Oesterheld, M., POFF, L., Sykes, M. T., Walker, M., Wall, D. H., & Walker, B. H. (2000). Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science, 287(5459), 1770-1774. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5459.1770

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title = "Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100",

abstract = "Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.",

author = "O.E. Sala and {Chapin III}, F.S. and J.J. Armesto and E. Berlow and J. Bloomfield and R. Dirzo and E. Huber-Sanwald and L.F. Huenneke and R.B. Jackson and A. Kinzig and Rik Leemans and D.M. Lodge and H.A. Mooney and M. Oesterheld and LeRoy POFF and M.T. Sykes and Michael Walker and D.H. Wall and Walker, {Brian H}",

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Sala, OE, Chapin III, FS, Armesto, JJ, Berlow, E, Bloomfield, J, Dirzo, R, Huber-Sanwald, E, Huenneke, LF, Jackson, RB, Kinzig, A, Leemans, R, Lodge, DM, Mooney, HA, Oesterheld, M, POFF, L, Sykes, MT, Walker, M, Wall, DH & Walker, BH 2000, 'Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100', Science, vol. 287, no. 5459, pp. 1770-1774. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5459.1770

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AU - Sala, O.E.

AU - Chapin III, F.S.

AU - Armesto, J.J.

AU - Berlow, E.

AU - Bloomfield, J.

AU - Dirzo, R.

AU - Huber-Sanwald, E.

AU - Huenneke, L.F.

AU - Jackson, R.B.

AU - Kinzig, A.

AU - Leemans, Rik

AU - Lodge, D.M.

AU - Mooney, H.A.

AU - Oesterheld, M.

AU - POFF, LeRoy

AU - Sykes, M.T.

AU - Walker, Michael

AU - Wall, D.H.

AU - Walker, Brian H

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PY - 2000

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N2 - Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.

AB - Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.

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