Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Christopher Murray, Haidong wang, Rafael Lozano, Adrian Davis, Xiaofeng Liang, Maigeng Zhou, Stein Vollset, Ayse Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Safa Abdalla, Foad Abd-Allah, Muna Aziz, Semaw Ferede Abera, Victor Aboyans, Biju Abraham, Katrina Abuabara, Ibrahim Abubakar, Laith Abu-Raddad, Niveen Abu-Rmeileh, Tom Achoki, Ademola Adelekan & 271 others Zanfina Ademi, Koranteng Adofo, Arsene Adou, Jose Adsuar, Johan Arnlov, Mazin Al Khabouri, Deena Alasfoor, Mohammed Albittar, Miguel Alegretti, Alicia Aleman, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Rafael Alfonso-Cristancho, Samia Alhabib, Mohammed Ali, Raghib Ali, Francois Alla, Faris Al Lami, Peter Allebeck, Mohammad AlMazroa, Rustam Al-Shahi Salman, Ubai Alsharif, Elena Alvarez, Nelson Alviz-Guzman, Adansi Amankwaa, Alaa Badawi, Maria Bahit, Talal Bakfalouni, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Shivanthi Balalla, Amitava Banerjee, Ryan Barber, Suzanne Barker-Collo, Simon Barquera, Lars Barregard, Lope Barrero, Tonatiuh Barrientos-Gutierrez, Arindam Basu, Mohammed Basulaiman, Justin Beardsley, Fiona Charlson, Xuan Che, Honglei Chen, Yingyao Chen, Jian Sheng Chen, Zhengming Chen, Peggy Chiang, Odgerel Chimed-Ochir, Rajiv Chowdhury, Hanne Christensen, Costas Christophi, Kebede Deribe, Don Jarlais, Muluken Dessalegn, Gabrielle DeVeber, Samath Dharmaratne, Jose-Luis Diaz-Ortega, Cesar Diaz-Torne, Daniel Dicker, Eric Ding, Klara Dokova, E Dorsey, Tim Driscoll, Leilei Duan, Karen Edmond, Richard Ellenbogen, Yousef Elshrek, Thomas Furst, Saman Fahimi, Anna Fahrion, Emerito Faraon, Derek Fay, Andrea Feigl, Valery Feigin, Ibrahim Ginawi, Maurice Giroud, Elizabeth Glaser, Shifalika Goenka, Hector Dantes, Philimon Gona, Diego Gonzalez-Medina, Caterina Guinovart, Rahul Gupta, Richard Gosselin, Carolyn Gotay, Atsushi Goto, Juanita Haagsma, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Holly Hagan, Maria Hagstromer, Yara Halasa, Randah Hamadeh, Hannah Hamavid, Mouhanad Hammami, Jamie Hancock, Graeme Hankey, Gillian Hansen, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Marissa Iannarone, Kim Iburg, Bulat Idrisov, Nayu Ikeda, Kaire Innos, Manami Inoue, Farhad Islami, Kathryn Jacobsen, Simerjot Jassal, Sudha Jayaraman, Paul Jensen, Vivekanand Jha, Guohong Jiang, Ying Jiang, Jost Jonas, Jonathan Joseph, Knud Juel, Edmond Kabagambe, Haidong Kan, Andre Karch, Chante Karimkhani, Ganesan Karthikeyan, Nicholas Kassebaum, Anil Kaul, Norito kawakami, Konstantin Kazanjan, Dhruv Kazi, Andrew Kemp, Andre Kengne, Andre Keren, Maia Kereselidze, Yousef Khader, Yohannes Kinfu, Ratilal Lalloo, Tea Lallukka, Hilton Lam, Qing Lan, Van Lansingh, Heidi Larson, Anders Larsson, Pablo Lavados, Alicia Lawrynowicz, Janet Leasher, Jong-Tae Lee, James Leigh, Mall Leinsalu, Ricky Leung, Carly Levitz, Abbas Mahdi, Marek Majdan, Reza Malekzadeh, Srikanth Mangalam, Christopher Mapoma, Marape Marape, wagner MArcenes, Christopher Margono, Guy Marks, Melvin Marzan, Joseph Masci, Mohammad Mashal, Vinay Nangia, K Narayan, Denis Nash, Chakib Nejjari, Jamal Nasher, Robert Nelson, Marian Neuhouser, Sudan Neupane, Polly Newcomb, Charles Newton, Marie Ng, Frida Ngalesoni, Grant Nguyen, Nhung Nguyen, Muhammad Nisar, Shaun Odell, Martin O'Donnell, Summer Ohno, Bolajoko Olusanya, Saad Omer, John Opio, Orish Orisakwe, Katrina Ortblad, Alberto Ortiz, Maria Otayza, Boris Pavlin, Niel Pearce, Carlos Pellegrini, David Pereira, Sophie Peresson, Rogelio Perez-Padilla, Fernando Perez-Ruiz, Norberto Perico, Aslam Pervaiz, Konrad Pesudovs, Carrie Peterson, Max Petzold, Bryan Phillips, Dima Qato, Amado Quezada, D Quistberg, Murugesan Raju, Ivo Rakovac, Saleem Rana, Amany Refaat, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Antonio Ribeiro, Stefano Ricci, Patricia Riccio, Lee Richardson, Jan Richardus, Bayard Roberts, Sukanta Saha, Ramesh Sahathevan, Mohammad Sahraian, Berhe Sahle, Joshua Salomon, Deborah Salvo, Genesis Samonte, Uchechukwu Sampson, Juan Sanabria, Logan Sandar, Itamar Santos, Eric Tenkorang, Abdullah Terkawi, Bernadette Thomas, Andrew Thorne-Lyman, Amanda Thrift, GEorge Thurston, Taavi Tillmann, David Tirschwell, Imad Tleyjeh, Marcello Tonelli, Fotis Topouzis, Jeffrey Towbin, Clotilde Ubeda, Uche Uchendu, Eduardo Undurraga, Andrew Vallely, Steven Van De Vijver, Coen Van Gool, Yuri Varakin, Tommi Vasankari, Ana Vasconcelos, Gregory Wagner, Stephen Waller, Jianli Wang, Linhong Wang, XiaoRong Wang, Tati Warouw, Scott Weichenthal, Elisabete Weiderpass, Robert Weintraub, Wang Wenzhi, Gelin Xu, Rebecca Yang, Yuichiro Yano, Hiroshi Yatsuya, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok-Jun Yoon, Mustafa Younis, Chuanhua Yu, Jun Zhu, Shankuan Zhu, Davies Zonies, Xiao Zou, Joseph Zunt, Theo Vos, Alan lopez, R Gosslin, Nadim Karam, Nsanzimana Sabin, A Temesgen

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    3435 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries.

    Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

    Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions.

    Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)117-171
    Number of pages55
    JournalLancet
    Volume385
    Issue number9963
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2015

    Fingerprint

    Cause of Death
    Mortality
    Uncertainty
    Life Expectancy
    Respiratory Tract Infections
    Diarrhea
    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
    Global Burden of Disease
    Garbage
    HIV
    Parturition
    Southern Africa
    Atrial Flutter
    Life Tables
    Africa South of the Sahara
    Rotavirus
    Russia
    Wounds and Injuries
    Sickle Cell Anemia
    Statistical Models

    Cite this

    Murray, Christopher ; wang, Haidong ; Lozano, Rafael ; Davis, Adrian ; Liang, Xiaofeng ; Zhou, Maigeng ; Vollset, Stein ; Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu ; Abdalla, Safa ; Abd-Allah, Foad ; Aziz, Muna ; Abera, Semaw Ferede ; Aboyans, Victor ; Abraham, Biju ; Abuabara, Katrina ; Abubakar, Ibrahim ; Abu-Raddad, Laith ; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ; Achoki, Tom ; Adelekan, Ademola ; Ademi, Zanfina ; Adofo, Koranteng ; Adou, Arsene ; Adsuar, Jose ; Arnlov, Johan ; Al Khabouri, Mazin ; Alasfoor, Deena ; Albittar, Mohammed ; Alegretti, Miguel ; Aleman, Alicia ; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw ; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael ; Alhabib, Samia ; Ali, Mohammed ; Ali, Raghib ; Alla, Francois ; Al Lami, Faris ; Allebeck, Peter ; AlMazroa, Mohammad ; Al-Shahi Salman, Rustam ; Alsharif, Ubai ; Alvarez, Elena ; Alviz-Guzman, Nelson ; Amankwaa, Adansi ; Badawi, Alaa ; Bahit, Maria ; Bakfalouni, Talal ; Balakrishnan, Kalpana ; Balalla, Shivanthi ; Banerjee, Amitava ; Barber, Ryan ; Barker-Collo, Suzanne ; Barquera, Simon ; Barregard, Lars ; Barrero, Lope ; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh ; Basu, Arindam ; Basulaiman, Mohammed ; Beardsley, Justin ; Charlson, Fiona ; Che, Xuan ; Chen, Honglei ; Chen, Yingyao ; Chen, Jian Sheng ; Chen, Zhengming ; Chiang, Peggy ; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel ; Chowdhury, Rajiv ; Christensen, Hanne ; Christophi, Costas ; Deribe, Kebede ; Jarlais, Don ; Dessalegn, Muluken ; DeVeber, Gabrielle ; Dharmaratne, Samath ; Diaz-Ortega, Jose-Luis ; Diaz-Torne, Cesar ; Dicker, Daniel ; Ding, Eric ; Dokova, Klara ; Dorsey, E ; Driscoll, Tim ; Duan, Leilei ; Edmond, Karen ; Ellenbogen, Richard ; Elshrek, Yousef ; Furst, Thomas ; Fahimi, Saman ; Fahrion, Anna ; Faraon, Emerito ; Fay, Derek ; Feigl, Andrea ; Feigin, Valery ; Ginawi, Ibrahim ; Giroud, Maurice ; Glaser, Elizabeth ; Goenka, Shifalika ; Dantes, Hector ; Gona, Philimon ; Gonzalez-Medina, Diego ; Guinovart, Caterina ; Gupta, Rahul ; Gosselin, Richard ; Gotay, Carolyn ; Goto, Atsushi ; Haagsma, Juanita ; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima ; Hagan, Holly ; Hagstromer, Maria ; Halasa, Yara ; Hamadeh, Randah ; Hamavid, Hannah ; Hammami, Mouhanad ; Hancock, Jamie ; Hankey, Graeme ; Hansen, Gillian ; Ohkubo, Takayoshi ; Iannarone, Marissa ; Iburg, Kim ; Idrisov, Bulat ; Ikeda, Nayu ; Innos, Kaire ; Inoue, Manami ; Islami, Farhad ; Jacobsen, Kathryn ; Jassal, Simerjot ; Jayaraman, Sudha ; Jensen, Paul ; Jha, Vivekanand ; Jiang, Guohong ; Jiang, Ying ; Jonas, Jost ; Joseph, Jonathan ; Juel, Knud ; Kabagambe, Edmond ; Kan, Haidong ; Karch, Andre ; Karimkhani, Chante ; Karthikeyan, Ganesan ; Kassebaum, Nicholas ; Kaul, Anil ; kawakami, Norito ; Kazanjan, Konstantin ; Kazi, Dhruv ; Kemp, Andrew ; Kengne, Andre ; Keren, Andre ; Kereselidze, Maia ; Khader, Yousef ; Kinfu, Yohannes ; Lalloo, Ratilal ; Lallukka, Tea ; Lam, Hilton ; Lan, Qing ; Lansingh, Van ; Larson, Heidi ; Larsson, Anders ; Lavados, Pablo ; Lawrynowicz, Alicia ; Leasher, Janet ; Lee, Jong-Tae ; Leigh, James ; Leinsalu, Mall ; Leung, Ricky ; Levitz, Carly ; Mahdi, Abbas ; Majdan, Marek ; Malekzadeh, Reza ; Mangalam, Srikanth ; Mapoma, Christopher ; Marape, Marape ; MArcenes, wagner ; Margono, Christopher ; Marks, Guy ; Marzan, Melvin ; Masci, Joseph ; Mashal, Mohammad ; Nangia, Vinay ; Narayan, K ; Nash, Denis ; Nejjari, Chakib ; Nasher, Jamal ; Nelson, Robert ; Neuhouser, Marian ; Neupane, Sudan ; Newcomb, Polly ; Newton, Charles ; Ng, Marie ; Ngalesoni, Frida ; Nguyen, Grant ; Nguyen, Nhung ; Nisar, Muhammad ; Odell, Shaun ; O'Donnell, Martin ; Ohno, Summer ; Olusanya, Bolajoko ; Omer, Saad ; Opio, John ; Orisakwe, Orish ; Ortblad, Katrina ; Ortiz, Alberto ; Otayza, Maria ; Pavlin, Boris ; Pearce, Niel ; Pellegrini, Carlos ; Pereira, David ; Peresson, Sophie ; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio ; Perez-Ruiz, Fernando ; Perico, Norberto ; Pervaiz, Aslam ; Pesudovs, Konrad ; Peterson, Carrie ; Petzold, Max ; Phillips, Bryan ; Qato, Dima ; Quezada, Amado ; Quistberg, D ; Raju, Murugesan ; Rakovac, Ivo ; Rana, Saleem ; Refaat, Amany ; Remuzzi, Giuseppe ; Ribeiro, Antonio ; Ricci, Stefano ; Riccio, Patricia ; Richardson, Lee ; Richardus, Jan ; Roberts, Bayard ; Saha, Sukanta ; Sahathevan, Ramesh ; Sahraian, Mohammad ; Sahle, Berhe ; Salomon, Joshua ; Salvo, Deborah ; Samonte, Genesis ; Sampson, Uchechukwu ; Sanabria, Juan ; Sandar, Logan ; Santos, Itamar ; Tenkorang, Eric ; Terkawi, Abdullah ; Thomas, Bernadette ; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew ; Thrift, Amanda ; Thurston, GEorge ; Tillmann, Taavi ; Tirschwell, David ; Tleyjeh, Imad ; Tonelli, Marcello ; Topouzis, Fotis ; Towbin, Jeffrey ; Ubeda, Clotilde ; Uchendu, Uche ; Undurraga, Eduardo ; Vallely, Andrew ; Van De Vijver, Steven ; Van Gool, Coen ; Varakin, Yuri ; Vasankari, Tommi ; Vasconcelos, Ana ; Wagner, Gregory ; Waller, Stephen ; Wang, Jianli ; Wang, Linhong ; Wang, XiaoRong ; Warouw, Tati ; Weichenthal, Scott ; Weiderpass, Elisabete ; Weintraub, Robert ; Wenzhi, Wang ; Xu, Gelin ; Yang, Rebecca ; Yano, Yuichiro ; Yatsuya, Hiroshi ; Yip, Paul ; Yonemoto, Naohiro ; Yoon, Seok-Jun ; Younis, Mustafa ; Yu, Chuanhua ; Zhu, Jun ; Zhu, Shankuan ; Zonies, Davies ; Zou, Xiao ; Zunt, Joseph ; Vos, Theo ; lopez, Alan ; Gosslin, R ; Karam, Nadim ; Sabin, Nsanzimana ; Temesgen, A. / Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. In: Lancet. 2015 ; Vol. 385, No. 9963. pp. 117-171.
    @article{49fb5ff5b943453eb927e491f23d8d9d,
    title = "Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013",
    abstract = "Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95{\%} uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7{\%}, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21{\%}. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade",
    author = "Christopher Murray and Haidong wang and Rafael Lozano and Adrian Davis and Xiaofeng Liang and Maigeng Zhou and Stein Vollset and Ozgoren, {Ayse Abbasoglu} and Safa Abdalla and Foad Abd-Allah and Muna Aziz and Abera, {Semaw Ferede} and Victor Aboyans and Biju Abraham and Katrina Abuabara and Ibrahim Abubakar and Laith Abu-Raddad and Niveen Abu-Rmeileh and Tom Achoki and Ademola Adelekan and Zanfina Ademi and Koranteng Adofo and Arsene Adou and Jose Adsuar and Johan Arnlov and {Al Khabouri}, Mazin and Deena Alasfoor and Mohammed Albittar and Miguel Alegretti and Alicia Aleman and Alemu, {Zewdie Aderaw} and Rafael Alfonso-Cristancho and Samia Alhabib and Mohammed Ali and Raghib Ali and Francois Alla and {Al Lami}, Faris and Peter Allebeck and Mohammad AlMazroa and {Al-Shahi Salman}, Rustam and Ubai Alsharif and Elena Alvarez and Nelson Alviz-Guzman and Adansi Amankwaa and Alaa Badawi and Maria Bahit and Talal Bakfalouni and Kalpana Balakrishnan and Shivanthi Balalla and Amitava Banerjee and Ryan Barber and Suzanne Barker-Collo and Simon Barquera and Lars Barregard and Lope Barrero and Tonatiuh Barrientos-Gutierrez and Arindam Basu and Mohammed Basulaiman and Justin Beardsley and Fiona Charlson and Xuan Che and Honglei Chen and Yingyao Chen and Chen, {Jian Sheng} and Zhengming Chen and Peggy Chiang and Odgerel Chimed-Ochir and Rajiv Chowdhury and Hanne Christensen and Costas Christophi and Kebede Deribe and Don Jarlais and Muluken Dessalegn and Gabrielle DeVeber and Samath Dharmaratne and Jose-Luis Diaz-Ortega and Cesar Diaz-Torne and Daniel Dicker and Eric Ding and Klara Dokova and E Dorsey and Tim Driscoll and Leilei Duan and Karen Edmond and Richard Ellenbogen and Yousef Elshrek and Thomas Furst and Saman Fahimi and Anna Fahrion and Emerito Faraon and Derek Fay and Andrea Feigl and Valery Feigin and Ibrahim Ginawi and Maurice Giroud and Elizabeth Glaser and Shifalika Goenka and Hector Dantes and Philimon Gona and Diego Gonzalez-Medina and Caterina Guinovart and Rahul Gupta and Richard Gosselin and Carolyn Gotay and Atsushi Goto and Juanita Haagsma and Nima Hafezi-Nejad and Holly Hagan and Maria Hagstromer and Yara Halasa and Randah Hamadeh and Hannah Hamavid and Mouhanad Hammami and Jamie Hancock and Graeme Hankey and Gillian Hansen and Takayoshi Ohkubo and Marissa Iannarone and Kim Iburg and Bulat Idrisov and Nayu Ikeda and Kaire Innos and Manami Inoue and Farhad Islami and Kathryn Jacobsen and Simerjot Jassal and Sudha Jayaraman and Paul Jensen and Vivekanand Jha and Guohong Jiang and Ying Jiang and Jost Jonas and Jonathan Joseph and Knud Juel and Edmond Kabagambe and Haidong Kan and Andre Karch and Chante Karimkhani and Ganesan Karthikeyan and Nicholas Kassebaum and Anil Kaul and Norito kawakami and Konstantin Kazanjan and Dhruv Kazi and Andrew Kemp and Andre Kengne and Andre Keren and Maia Kereselidze and Yousef Khader and Yohannes Kinfu and Ratilal Lalloo and Tea Lallukka and Hilton Lam and Qing Lan and Van Lansingh and Heidi Larson and Anders Larsson and Pablo Lavados and Alicia Lawrynowicz and Janet Leasher and Jong-Tae Lee and James Leigh and Mall Leinsalu and Ricky Leung and Carly Levitz and Abbas Mahdi and Marek Majdan and Reza Malekzadeh and Srikanth Mangalam and Christopher Mapoma and Marape Marape and wagner MArcenes and Christopher Margono and Guy Marks and Melvin Marzan and Joseph Masci and Mohammad Mashal and Vinay Nangia and K Narayan and Denis Nash and Chakib Nejjari and Jamal Nasher and Robert Nelson and Marian Neuhouser and Sudan Neupane and Polly Newcomb and Charles Newton and Marie Ng and Frida Ngalesoni and Grant Nguyen and Nhung Nguyen and Muhammad Nisar and Shaun Odell and Martin O'Donnell and Summer Ohno and Bolajoko Olusanya and Saad Omer and John Opio and Orish Orisakwe and Katrina Ortblad and Alberto Ortiz and Maria Otayza and Boris Pavlin and Niel Pearce and Carlos Pellegrini and David Pereira and Sophie Peresson and Rogelio Perez-Padilla and Fernando Perez-Ruiz and Norberto Perico and Aslam Pervaiz and Konrad Pesudovs and Carrie Peterson and Max Petzold and Bryan Phillips and Dima Qato and Amado Quezada and D Quistberg and Murugesan Raju and Ivo Rakovac and Saleem Rana and Amany Refaat and Giuseppe Remuzzi and Antonio Ribeiro and Stefano Ricci and Patricia Riccio and Lee Richardson and Jan Richardus and Bayard Roberts and Sukanta Saha and Ramesh Sahathevan and Mohammad Sahraian and Berhe Sahle and Joshua Salomon and Deborah Salvo and Genesis Samonte and Uchechukwu Sampson and Juan Sanabria and Logan Sandar and Itamar Santos and Eric Tenkorang and Abdullah Terkawi and Bernadette Thomas and Andrew Thorne-Lyman and Amanda Thrift and GEorge Thurston and Taavi Tillmann and David Tirschwell and Imad Tleyjeh and Marcello Tonelli and Fotis Topouzis and Jeffrey Towbin and Clotilde Ubeda and Uche Uchendu and Eduardo Undurraga and Andrew Vallely and {Van De Vijver}, Steven and {Van Gool}, Coen and Yuri Varakin and Tommi Vasankari and Ana Vasconcelos and Gregory Wagner and Stephen Waller and Jianli Wang and Linhong Wang and XiaoRong Wang and Tati Warouw and Scott Weichenthal and Elisabete Weiderpass and Robert Weintraub and Wang Wenzhi and Gelin Xu and Rebecca Yang and Yuichiro Yano and Hiroshi Yatsuya and Paul Yip and Naohiro Yonemoto and Seok-Jun Yoon and Mustafa Younis and Chuanhua Yu and Jun Zhu and Shankuan Zhu and Davies Zonies and Xiao Zou and Joseph Zunt and Theo Vos and Alan lopez and R Gosslin and Nadim Karam and Nsanzimana Sabin and A Temesgen",
    year = "2015",
    doi = "10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61682-2",
    language = "English",
    volume = "385",
    pages = "117--171",
    journal = "Lancet",
    issn = "0140-6736",
    publisher = "Elsevier Limited",
    number = "9963",

    }

    Murray, C, wang, H, Lozano, R, Davis, A, Liang, X, Zhou, M, Vollset, S, Ozgoren, AA, Abdalla, S, Abd-Allah, F, Aziz, M, Abera, SF, Aboyans, V, Abraham, B, Abuabara, K, Abubakar, I, Abu-Raddad, L, Abu-Rmeileh, N, Achoki, T, Adelekan, A, Ademi, Z, Adofo, K, Adou, A, Adsuar, J, Arnlov, J, Al Khabouri, M, Alasfoor, D, Albittar, M, Alegretti, M, Aleman, A, Alemu, ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho, R, Alhabib, S, Ali, M, Ali, R, Alla, F, Al Lami, F, Allebeck, P, AlMazroa, M, Al-Shahi Salman, R, Alsharif, U, Alvarez, E, Alviz-Guzman, N, Amankwaa, A, Badawi, A, Bahit, M, Bakfalouni, T, Balakrishnan, K, Balalla, S, Banerjee, A, Barber, R, Barker-Collo, S, Barquera, S, Barregard, L, Barrero, L, Barrientos-Gutierrez, T, Basu, A, Basulaiman, M, Beardsley, J, Charlson, F, Che, X, Chen, H, Chen, Y, Chen, JS, Chen, Z, Chiang, P, Chimed-Ochir, O, Chowdhury, R, Christensen, H, Christophi, C, Deribe, K, Jarlais, D, Dessalegn, M, DeVeber, G, Dharmaratne, S, Diaz-Ortega, J-L, Diaz-Torne, C, Dicker, D, Ding, E, Dokova, K, Dorsey, E, Driscoll, T, Duan, L, Edmond, K, Ellenbogen, R, Elshrek, Y, Furst, T, Fahimi, S, Fahrion, A, Faraon, E, Fay, D, Feigl, A, Feigin, V, Ginawi, I, Giroud, M, Glaser, E, Goenka, S, Dantes, H, Gona, P, Gonzalez-Medina, D, Guinovart, C, Gupta, R, Gosselin, R, Gotay, C, Goto, A, Haagsma, J, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Hagan, H, Hagstromer, M, Halasa, Y, Hamadeh, R, Hamavid, H, Hammami, M, Hancock, J, Hankey, G, Hansen, G, Ohkubo, T, Iannarone, M, Iburg, K, Idrisov, B, Ikeda, N, Innos, K, Inoue, M, Islami, F, Jacobsen, K, Jassal, S, Jayaraman, S, Jensen, P, Jha, V, Jiang, G, Jiang, Y, Jonas, J, Joseph, J, Juel, K, Kabagambe, E, Kan, H, Karch, A, Karimkhani, C, Karthikeyan, G, Kassebaum, N, Kaul, A, kawakami, N, Kazanjan, K, Kazi, D, Kemp, A, Kengne, A, Keren, A, Kereselidze, M, Khader, Y, Kinfu, Y, Lalloo, R, Lallukka, T, Lam, H, Lan, Q, Lansingh, V, Larson, H, Larsson, A, Lavados, P, Lawrynowicz, A, Leasher, J, Lee, J-T, Leigh, J, Leinsalu, M, Leung, R, Levitz, C, Mahdi, A, Majdan, M, Malekzadeh, R, Mangalam, S, Mapoma, C, Marape, M, MArcenes, W, Margono, C, Marks, G, Marzan, M, Masci, J, Mashal, M, Nangia, V, Narayan, K, Nash, D, Nejjari, C, Nasher, J, Nelson, R, Neuhouser, M, Neupane, S, Newcomb, P, Newton, C, Ng, M, Ngalesoni, F, Nguyen, G, Nguyen, N, Nisar, M, Odell, S, O'Donnell, M, Ohno, S, Olusanya, B, Omer, S, Opio, J, Orisakwe, O, Ortblad, K, Ortiz, A, Otayza, M, Pavlin, B, Pearce, N, Pellegrini, C, Pereira, D, Peresson, S, Perez-Padilla, R, Perez-Ruiz, F, Perico, N, Pervaiz, A, Pesudovs, K, Peterson, C, Petzold, M, Phillips, B, Qato, D, Quezada, A, Quistberg, D, Raju, M, Rakovac, I, Rana, S, Refaat, A, Remuzzi, G, Ribeiro, A, Ricci, S, Riccio, P, Richardson, L, Richardus, J, Roberts, B, Saha, S, Sahathevan, R, Sahraian, M, Sahle, B, Salomon, J, Salvo, D, Samonte, G, Sampson, U, Sanabria, J, Sandar, L, Santos, I, Tenkorang, E, Terkawi, A, Thomas, B, Thorne-Lyman, A, Thrift, A, Thurston, GE, Tillmann, T, Tirschwell, D, Tleyjeh, I, Tonelli, M, Topouzis, F, Towbin, J, Ubeda, C, Uchendu, U, Undurraga, E, Vallely, A, Van De Vijver, S, Van Gool, C, Varakin, Y, Vasankari, T, Vasconcelos, A, Wagner, G, Waller, S, Wang, J, Wang, L, Wang, X, Warouw, T, Weichenthal, S, Weiderpass, E, Weintraub, R, Wenzhi, W, Xu, G, Yang, R, Yano, Y, Yatsuya, H, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, S-J, Younis, M, Yu, C, Zhu, J, Zhu, S, Zonies, D, Zou, X, Zunt, J, Vos, T, lopez, A, Gosslin, R, Karam, N, Sabin, N & Temesgen, A 2015, 'Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013', Lancet, vol. 385, no. 9963, pp. 117-171. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61682-2

    Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. / Murray, Christopher; wang, Haidong; Lozano, Rafael; Davis, Adrian; Liang, Xiaofeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Vollset, Stein; Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu; Abdalla, Safa; Abd-Allah, Foad; Aziz, Muna; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Aboyans, Victor; Abraham, Biju; Abuabara, Katrina; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola; Ademi, Zanfina; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsene; Adsuar, Jose; Arnlov, Johan; Al Khabouri, Mazin; Alasfoor, Deena; Albittar, Mohammed; Alegretti, Miguel; Aleman, Alicia; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Mohammed; Ali, Raghib; Alla, Francois; Al Lami, Faris; Allebeck, Peter; AlMazroa, Mohammad; Al-Shahi Salman, Rustam; Alsharif, Ubai; Alvarez, Elena; Alviz-Guzman, Nelson; Amankwaa, Adansi; Badawi, Alaa; Bahit, Maria; Bakfalouni, Talal; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balalla, Shivanthi; Banerjee, Amitava; Barber, Ryan; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; Barquera, Simon; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Basu, Arindam; Basulaiman, Mohammed; Beardsley, Justin; Charlson, Fiona; Che, Xuan; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Yingyao; Chen, Jian Sheng; Chen, Zhengming; Chiang, Peggy; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christensen, Hanne; Christophi, Costas; Deribe, Kebede; Jarlais, Don; Dessalegn, Muluken; DeVeber, Gabrielle; Dharmaratne, Samath; Diaz-Ortega, Jose-Luis; Diaz-Torne, Cesar; Dicker, Daniel; Ding, Eric; Dokova, Klara; Dorsey, E; Driscoll, Tim; Duan, Leilei; Edmond, Karen; Ellenbogen, Richard; Elshrek, Yousef; Furst, Thomas; Fahimi, Saman; Fahrion, Anna; Faraon, Emerito; Fay, Derek; Feigl, Andrea; Feigin, Valery; Ginawi, Ibrahim; Giroud, Maurice; Glaser, Elizabeth; Goenka, Shifalika; Dantes, Hector; Gona, Philimon; Gonzalez-Medina, Diego; Guinovart, Caterina; Gupta, Rahul; Gosselin, Richard; Gotay, Carolyn; Goto, Atsushi; Haagsma, Juanita; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hagan, Holly; Hagstromer, Maria; Halasa, Yara; Hamadeh, Randah; Hamavid, Hannah; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hancock, Jamie; Hankey, Graeme; Hansen, Gillian; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Iannarone, Marissa; Iburg, Kim; Idrisov, Bulat; Ikeda, Nayu; Innos, Kaire; Inoue, Manami; Islami, Farhad; Jacobsen, Kathryn; Jassal, Simerjot; Jayaraman, Sudha; Jensen, Paul; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Guohong; Jiang, Ying; Jonas, Jost; Joseph, Jonathan; Juel, Knud; Kabagambe, Edmond; Kan, Haidong; Karch, Andre; Karimkhani, Chante; Karthikeyan, Ganesan; Kassebaum, Nicholas; Kaul, Anil; kawakami, Norito; Kazanjan, Konstantin; Kazi, Dhruv; Kemp, Andrew; Kengne, Andre; Keren, Andre; Kereselidze, Maia; Khader, Yousef; Kinfu, Yohannes; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lam, Hilton; Lan, Qing; Lansingh, Van; Larson, Heidi; Larsson, Anders; Lavados, Pablo; Lawrynowicz, Alicia; Leasher, Janet; Lee, Jong-Tae; Leigh, James; Leinsalu, Mall; Leung, Ricky; Levitz, Carly; Mahdi, Abbas; Majdan, Marek; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mangalam, Srikanth; Mapoma, Christopher; Marape, Marape; MArcenes, wagner; Margono, Christopher; Marks, Guy; Marzan, Melvin; Masci, Joseph; Mashal, Mohammad; Nangia, Vinay; Narayan, K; Nash, Denis; Nejjari, Chakib; Nasher, Jamal; Nelson, Robert; Neuhouser, Marian; Neupane, Sudan; Newcomb, Polly; Newton, Charles; Ng, Marie; Ngalesoni, Frida; Nguyen, Grant; Nguyen, Nhung; Nisar, Muhammad; Odell, Shaun; O'Donnell, Martin; Ohno, Summer; Olusanya, Bolajoko; Omer, Saad; Opio, John; Orisakwe, Orish; Ortblad, Katrina; Ortiz, Alberto; Otayza, Maria; Pavlin, Boris; Pearce, Niel; Pellegrini, Carlos; Pereira, David; Peresson, Sophie; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Perez-Ruiz, Fernando; Perico, Norberto; Pervaiz, Aslam; Pesudovs, Konrad; Peterson, Carrie; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Bryan; Qato, Dima; Quezada, Amado; Quistberg, D; Raju, Murugesan; Rakovac, Ivo; Rana, Saleem; Refaat, Amany; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Ribeiro, Antonio; Ricci, Stefano; Riccio, Patricia; Richardson, Lee; Richardus, Jan; Roberts, Bayard; Saha, Sukanta; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Sahraian, Mohammad; Sahle, Berhe; Salomon, Joshua; Salvo, Deborah; Samonte, Genesis; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Sanabria, Juan; Sandar, Logan; Santos, Itamar; Tenkorang, Eric; Terkawi, Abdullah; Thomas, Bernadette; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew; Thrift, Amanda; Thurston, GEorge; Tillmann, Taavi; Tirschwell, David; Tleyjeh, Imad; Tonelli, Marcello; Topouzis, Fotis; Towbin, Jeffrey; Ubeda, Clotilde; Uchendu, Uche; Undurraga, Eduardo; Vallely, Andrew; Van De Vijver, Steven; Van Gool, Coen; Varakin, Yuri; Vasankari, Tommi; Vasconcelos, Ana; Wagner, Gregory; Waller, Stephen; Wang, Jianli; Wang, Linhong; Wang, XiaoRong; Warouw, Tati; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert; Wenzhi, Wang; Xu, Gelin; Yang, Rebecca; Yano, Yuichiro; Yatsuya, Hiroshi; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa; Yu, Chuanhua; Zhu, Jun; Zhu, Shankuan; Zonies, Davies; Zou, Xiao; Zunt, Joseph; Vos, Theo; lopez, Alan; Gosslin, R; Karam, Nadim; Sabin, Nsanzimana; Temesgen, A.

    In: Lancet, Vol. 385, No. 9963, 2015, p. 117-171.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

    AU - Murray, Christopher

    AU - wang, Haidong

    AU - Lozano, Rafael

    AU - Davis, Adrian

    AU - Liang, Xiaofeng

    AU - Zhou, Maigeng

    AU - Vollset, Stein

    AU - Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu

    AU - Abdalla, Safa

    AU - Abd-Allah, Foad

    AU - Aziz, Muna

    AU - Abera, Semaw Ferede

    AU - Aboyans, Victor

    AU - Abraham, Biju

    AU - Abuabara, Katrina

    AU - Abubakar, Ibrahim

    AU - Abu-Raddad, Laith

    AU - Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen

    AU - Achoki, Tom

    AU - Adelekan, Ademola

    AU - Ademi, Zanfina

    AU - Adofo, Koranteng

    AU - Adou, Arsene

    AU - Adsuar, Jose

    AU - Arnlov, Johan

    AU - Al Khabouri, Mazin

    AU - Alasfoor, Deena

    AU - Albittar, Mohammed

    AU - Alegretti, Miguel

    AU - Aleman, Alicia

    AU - Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw

    AU - Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael

    AU - Alhabib, Samia

    AU - Ali, Mohammed

    AU - Ali, Raghib

    AU - Alla, Francois

    AU - Al Lami, Faris

    AU - Allebeck, Peter

    AU - AlMazroa, Mohammad

    AU - Al-Shahi Salman, Rustam

    AU - Alsharif, Ubai

    AU - Alvarez, Elena

    AU - Alviz-Guzman, Nelson

    AU - Amankwaa, Adansi

    AU - Badawi, Alaa

    AU - Bahit, Maria

    AU - Bakfalouni, Talal

    AU - Balakrishnan, Kalpana

    AU - Balalla, Shivanthi

    AU - Banerjee, Amitava

    AU - Barber, Ryan

    AU - Barker-Collo, Suzanne

    AU - Barquera, Simon

    AU - Barregard, Lars

    AU - Barrero, Lope

    AU - Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh

    AU - Basu, Arindam

    AU - Basulaiman, Mohammed

    AU - Beardsley, Justin

    AU - Charlson, Fiona

    AU - Che, Xuan

    AU - Chen, Honglei

    AU - Chen, Yingyao

    AU - Chen, Jian Sheng

    AU - Chen, Zhengming

    AU - Chiang, Peggy

    AU - Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel

    AU - Chowdhury, Rajiv

    AU - Christensen, Hanne

    AU - Christophi, Costas

    AU - Deribe, Kebede

    AU - Jarlais, Don

    AU - Dessalegn, Muluken

    AU - DeVeber, Gabrielle

    AU - Dharmaratne, Samath

    AU - Diaz-Ortega, Jose-Luis

    AU - Diaz-Torne, Cesar

    AU - Dicker, Daniel

    AU - Ding, Eric

    AU - Dokova, Klara

    AU - Dorsey, E

    AU - Driscoll, Tim

    AU - Duan, Leilei

    AU - Edmond, Karen

    AU - Ellenbogen, Richard

    AU - Elshrek, Yousef

    AU - Furst, Thomas

    AU - Fahimi, Saman

    AU - Fahrion, Anna

    AU - Faraon, Emerito

    AU - Fay, Derek

    AU - Feigl, Andrea

    AU - Feigin, Valery

    AU - Ginawi, Ibrahim

    AU - Giroud, Maurice

    AU - Glaser, Elizabeth

    AU - Goenka, Shifalika

    AU - Dantes, Hector

    AU - Gona, Philimon

    AU - Gonzalez-Medina, Diego

    AU - Guinovart, Caterina

    AU - Gupta, Rahul

    AU - Gosselin, Richard

    AU - Gotay, Carolyn

    AU - Goto, Atsushi

    AU - Haagsma, Juanita

    AU - Hafezi-Nejad, Nima

    AU - Hagan, Holly

    AU - Hagstromer, Maria

    AU - Halasa, Yara

    AU - Hamadeh, Randah

    AU - Hamavid, Hannah

    AU - Hammami, Mouhanad

    AU - Hancock, Jamie

    AU - Hankey, Graeme

    AU - Hansen, Gillian

    AU - Ohkubo, Takayoshi

    AU - Iannarone, Marissa

    AU - Iburg, Kim

    AU - Idrisov, Bulat

    AU - Ikeda, Nayu

    AU - Innos, Kaire

    AU - Inoue, Manami

    AU - Islami, Farhad

    AU - Jacobsen, Kathryn

    AU - Jassal, Simerjot

    AU - Jayaraman, Sudha

    AU - Jensen, Paul

    AU - Jha, Vivekanand

    AU - Jiang, Guohong

    AU - Jiang, Ying

    AU - Jonas, Jost

    AU - Joseph, Jonathan

    AU - Juel, Knud

    AU - Kabagambe, Edmond

    AU - Kan, Haidong

    AU - Karch, Andre

    AU - Karimkhani, Chante

    AU - Karthikeyan, Ganesan

    AU - Kassebaum, Nicholas

    AU - Kaul, Anil

    AU - kawakami, Norito

    AU - Kazanjan, Konstantin

    AU - Kazi, Dhruv

    AU - Kemp, Andrew

    AU - Kengne, Andre

    AU - Keren, Andre

    AU - Kereselidze, Maia

    AU - Khader, Yousef

    AU - Kinfu, Yohannes

    AU - Lalloo, Ratilal

    AU - Lallukka, Tea

    AU - Lam, Hilton

    AU - Lan, Qing

    AU - Lansingh, Van

    AU - Larson, Heidi

    AU - Larsson, Anders

    AU - Lavados, Pablo

    AU - Lawrynowicz, Alicia

    AU - Leasher, Janet

    AU - Lee, Jong-Tae

    AU - Leigh, James

    AU - Leinsalu, Mall

    AU - Leung, Ricky

    AU - Levitz, Carly

    AU - Mahdi, Abbas

    AU - Majdan, Marek

    AU - Malekzadeh, Reza

    AU - Mangalam, Srikanth

    AU - Mapoma, Christopher

    AU - Marape, Marape

    AU - MArcenes, wagner

    AU - Margono, Christopher

    AU - Marks, Guy

    AU - Marzan, Melvin

    AU - Masci, Joseph

    AU - Mashal, Mohammad

    AU - Nangia, Vinay

    AU - Narayan, K

    AU - Nash, Denis

    AU - Nejjari, Chakib

    AU - Nasher, Jamal

    AU - Nelson, Robert

    AU - Neuhouser, Marian

    AU - Neupane, Sudan

    AU - Newcomb, Polly

    AU - Newton, Charles

    AU - Ng, Marie

    AU - Ngalesoni, Frida

    AU - Nguyen, Grant

    AU - Nguyen, Nhung

    AU - Nisar, Muhammad

    AU - Odell, Shaun

    AU - O'Donnell, Martin

    AU - Ohno, Summer

    AU - Olusanya, Bolajoko

    AU - Omer, Saad

    AU - Opio, John

    AU - Orisakwe, Orish

    AU - Ortblad, Katrina

    AU - Ortiz, Alberto

    AU - Otayza, Maria

    AU - Pavlin, Boris

    AU - Pearce, Niel

    AU - Pellegrini, Carlos

    AU - Pereira, David

    AU - Peresson, Sophie

    AU - Perez-Padilla, Rogelio

    AU - Perez-Ruiz, Fernando

    AU - Perico, Norberto

    AU - Pervaiz, Aslam

    AU - Pesudovs, Konrad

    AU - Peterson, Carrie

    AU - Petzold, Max

    AU - Phillips, Bryan

    AU - Qato, Dima

    AU - Quezada, Amado

    AU - Quistberg, D

    AU - Raju, Murugesan

    AU - Rakovac, Ivo

    AU - Rana, Saleem

    AU - Refaat, Amany

    AU - Remuzzi, Giuseppe

    AU - Ribeiro, Antonio

    AU - Ricci, Stefano

    AU - Riccio, Patricia

    AU - Richardson, Lee

    AU - Richardus, Jan

    AU - Roberts, Bayard

    AU - Saha, Sukanta

    AU - Sahathevan, Ramesh

    AU - Sahraian, Mohammad

    AU - Sahle, Berhe

    AU - Salomon, Joshua

    AU - Salvo, Deborah

    AU - Samonte, Genesis

    AU - Sampson, Uchechukwu

    AU - Sanabria, Juan

    AU - Sandar, Logan

    AU - Santos, Itamar

    AU - Tenkorang, Eric

    AU - Terkawi, Abdullah

    AU - Thomas, Bernadette

    AU - Thorne-Lyman, Andrew

    AU - Thrift, Amanda

    AU - Thurston, GEorge

    AU - Tillmann, Taavi

    AU - Tirschwell, David

    AU - Tleyjeh, Imad

    AU - Tonelli, Marcello

    AU - Topouzis, Fotis

    AU - Towbin, Jeffrey

    AU - Ubeda, Clotilde

    AU - Uchendu, Uche

    AU - Undurraga, Eduardo

    AU - Vallely, Andrew

    AU - Van De Vijver, Steven

    AU - Van Gool, Coen

    AU - Varakin, Yuri

    AU - Vasankari, Tommi

    AU - Vasconcelos, Ana

    AU - Wagner, Gregory

    AU - Waller, Stephen

    AU - Wang, Jianli

    AU - Wang, Linhong

    AU - Wang, XiaoRong

    AU - Warouw, Tati

    AU - Weichenthal, Scott

    AU - Weiderpass, Elisabete

    AU - Weintraub, Robert

    AU - Wenzhi, Wang

    AU - Xu, Gelin

    AU - Yang, Rebecca

    AU - Yano, Yuichiro

    AU - Yatsuya, Hiroshi

    AU - Yip, Paul

    AU - Yonemoto, Naohiro

    AU - Yoon, Seok-Jun

    AU - Younis, Mustafa

    AU - Yu, Chuanhua

    AU - Zhu, Jun

    AU - Zhu, Shankuan

    AU - Zonies, Davies

    AU - Zou, Xiao

    AU - Zunt, Joseph

    AU - Vos, Theo

    AU - lopez, Alan

    AU - Gosslin, R

    AU - Karam, Nadim

    AU - Sabin, Nsanzimana

    AU - Temesgen, A

    PY - 2015

    Y1 - 2015

    N2 - Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade

    AB - Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade

    U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61682-2

    DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61682-2

    M3 - Article

    VL - 385

    SP - 117

    EP - 171

    JO - Lancet

    JF - Lancet

    SN - 0140-6736

    IS - 9963

    ER -