Global, regional and national levels of neonatal, infant and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Haidong Wang, Chelsea Liddell, Matthew Coates, Meghan Mooney, Carly Levitz, Austin Schumacher, Henry Apfel, Marissa Iannarone, Bryan Phillips, Katherine Lofgren, Logan Sandar, Rob Dorrington, Ivo Rakovac, Troy Jacobs, Xiaofeng Liang, Maigeng Zhou, Jun Zhu, Gonghuan Yang, Yanping Wang, Shiwei Liu & 211 others Yichong Li, Ayse Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Semaw Ferede Abera, Ibrahim Abubakar, Tom Achoki, Ademola Adelekan, Zanfina Ademi, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Peter Allen, Mohammad AlMazroa, Elena Alvarez, Adansi Amankwaa, Azmeraw Amare, Walid Ammar, Palwasha Anwari, Solveig Cunningham, Majed Masoud Asad, Reza Assadi, Amitava Banerjee, Sanjay Basu, Neeraj Bedi, Tolesa Bekele, Michelle Bell, Zulfiqar Bhutta, Jed Blore, Berrak Basara, Soufiane Boufous, Nicholas Breitborde, Nigel Bruce, Linh Ngoc Bui, Jonathan Carapetis, Rosario Cárdenas, David Carpenter, Valeria Caso, Ruben Castro, Ferrán Catalá-Lopéz, Alanur Cavlin, Xuan Che, Peggy Chiang, Rajiv Chowdhury, Costas Christophi, Ting-Wu Chuang, Massimo Cirillo, Iuri da Leite, Karen Courville, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Adrian Davis, Anand Dayama, Kebede Deribe, Samath Dharmaratne, Mukesh Dherani, Ugur Dilmen, Eric Ding, Karen Edmond, Sergei Ermakov, Farshad Farzadfar, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Daniel Obadare Fijabi, Nataliya Foigt, Mohammad Forouzanfar, Ana Garcia, Johanna Geleijnse, Bradford Gessner, Ketevan Goginashvili, Philimon Gona, Atsushi Goto, Hebe Gouda, Mark Green, Karen Greenwell, Harish Chander Gugnani, Rahul Gupta, Randah Hamadeh, Mouhanad Hammami, Hilda Harb, Simon Hay, Mohammad Hedayati, HDean Hosgood, Damian Hoy, Bulat Idrisov, Farhad Islami, Samaya Ismayilova, Vivekanand Jha, Guohong Jiang, Jost Jonas, Knud Juel, Edmond Kabagambe, Dhruv Kazi, Andre Kengne, Maia Kereselidze, Yousef Khader, Shams Hassan Khalif, Young-Ho Khang, Daniel Kim, Yohannes KINFU, Jonas Kinge, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Soewarta Kosen, Barthelemy Defo, GAnil Kumar, Kaushalendra Kumar, Ravi Kumar, Taavi Lai, Qing Lan, Anders Larsson, Jong-Tae Lee, Mall Leinsalu, Stephen Lim, Steven Lipshultz, Giancarlo Logroscino, Paulo Lotufo, Raimundas Lunevicius, Ronan Lyons, Stefan Ma, Abbas Mahdi, Melvin Marzan, Mohammad Mashal, Tasara Mazorodze, John McGrath, Ziad Memish, Walter Mendoza, George Mensah, Atte Meretoja, Ted Miller, Edward Mills, Karzan Mohammad, Ali Mokdad, Lorenzo Monasta, Marcella Montico, Ami Moore, Joanna Moschandreas, William Msemburi, Ulrich Mueller, Magdalena Muszynska, Mohsen Naghavi, Kovin Naidoo, KM Narayan, Chakib Nejjari, Marie Ng, Jean de Dieu Ngirabega, Mark Nieuwenhuijsen, Luke Nyakarahuka, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Saad Omer, Angel Caicedo, Victoria Wyk, Dan Pope, Farshad Pourmalek, Dorairaj Prabhakaran, Sajjad Rahman, Saleem Rana, Robert Quentin Reilly, David Rojas-Rueda, Luca Ronfani, Lesley Rushton, Mohammad Saeedi, Joshua Salomon, Uchechukwu Sampson, Itamar Santos, Monika Sawhney, Jürgen Schmidt, Marina Shakh-Nazarova, Jun She, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Kenji Shibuya, Hwashin Shin, Kawkab Shishani, Ivy Shiue, Inga Sigfusdottir, Jasvinder Singh, Vegard Skirbekk, Karen Sliwa, Sergey Soshnikov, Luciano Sposato, Vasiliki Kalliopi Stathopoulo, Konstantinos Stroumpoulis, Karen Tabb, Roberto Talongwa, Carolina Teixeira, Abdullah Terkawi, Alan Thomson, Andrew Thorne-Lyman, Hideaki Toyoshima, Zacharie Dimbuene, Parfait Uwaliraye, Selen Uzun, Tommi Vasankari, Ana Vasconcelos, Vasiliy Vlassov, Stein Vollset, Stephen Waller, Xia Wan, Scott Weichenthal, Elisabete Weiderpass, Robert Weintraub, Ronny Westerman, James Wilkinson, Hywel Williams, Yang Yang, Gokalp Yentur, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mustafa Younis, Chuanhua Yu, Kim Jin, Maysaa Zaki, Shankuan Zhu, Theo Vos, Alan Lopez, Christopher Murray, et al.,

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    388 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Background: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. Methods: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. Findings: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. Interpretation: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)957-979
    Number of pages23
    JournalLancet
    Volume384
    Issue number9947
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2014

    Fingerprint

    Child Mortality
    Mortality
    Developing Countries
    Africa South of the Sahara
    Age Groups
    Education
    Guinea-Bissau
    Mothers
    Parturition
    Central Africa
    Global Burden of Disease
    Western Africa
    Selection Bias
    Singapore
    Censuses
    HIV
    Health

    Cite this

    Wang, Haidong ; Liddell, Chelsea ; Coates, Matthew ; Mooney, Meghan ; Levitz, Carly ; Schumacher, Austin ; Apfel, Henry ; Iannarone, Marissa ; Phillips, Bryan ; Lofgren, Katherine ; Sandar, Logan ; Dorrington, Rob ; Rakovac, Ivo ; Jacobs, Troy ; Liang, Xiaofeng ; Zhou, Maigeng ; Zhu, Jun ; Yang, Gonghuan ; Wang, Yanping ; Liu, Shiwei ; Li, Yichong ; Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu ; Abera, Semaw Ferede ; Abubakar, Ibrahim ; Achoki, Tom ; Adelekan, Ademola ; Ademi, Zanfina ; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw ; Allen, Peter ; AlMazroa, Mohammad ; Alvarez, Elena ; Amankwaa, Adansi ; Amare, Azmeraw ; Ammar, Walid ; Anwari, Palwasha ; Cunningham, Solveig ; Asad, Majed Masoud ; Assadi, Reza ; Banerjee, Amitava ; Basu, Sanjay ; Bedi, Neeraj ; Bekele, Tolesa ; Bell, Michelle ; Bhutta, Zulfiqar ; Blore, Jed ; Basara, Berrak ; Boufous, Soufiane ; Breitborde, Nicholas ; Bruce, Nigel ; Ngoc Bui, Linh ; Carapetis, Jonathan ; Cárdenas, Rosario ; Carpenter, David ; Caso, Valeria ; Castro, Ruben ; Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán ; Cavlin, Alanur ; Che, Xuan ; Chiang, Peggy ; Chowdhury, Rajiv ; Christophi, Costas ; Chuang, Ting-Wu ; Cirillo, Massimo ; Leite, Iuri da ; Courville, Karen ; Dandona, Lalit ; Dandona, Rakhi ; Davis, Adrian ; Dayama, Anand ; Deribe, Kebede ; Dharmaratne, Samath ; Dherani, Mukesh ; Dilmen, Ugur ; Ding, Eric ; Edmond, Karen ; Ermakov, Sergei ; Farzadfar, Farshad ; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad ; Fijabi, Daniel Obadare ; Foigt, Nataliya ; Forouzanfar, Mohammad ; Garcia, Ana ; Geleijnse, Johanna ; Gessner, Bradford ; Goginashvili, Ketevan ; Gona, Philimon ; Goto, Atsushi ; Gouda, Hebe ; Green, Mark ; Greenwell, Karen ; Chander Gugnani, Harish ; Gupta, Rahul ; Hamadeh, Randah ; Hammami, Mouhanad ; Harb, Hilda ; Hay, Simon ; Hedayati, Mohammad ; Hosgood, HDean ; Hoy, Damian ; Idrisov, Bulat ; Islami, Farhad ; Ismayilova, Samaya ; Jha, Vivekanand ; Jiang, Guohong ; Jonas, Jost ; Juel, Knud ; Kabagambe, Edmond ; Kazi, Dhruv ; Kengne, Andre ; Kereselidze, Maia ; Khader, Yousef ; Hassan Khalif, Shams ; Khang, Young-Ho ; Kim, Daniel ; KINFU, Yohannes ; Kinge, Jonas ; Kokubo, Yoshihiro ; Kosen, Soewarta ; Defo, Barthelemy ; Kumar, GAnil ; Kumar, Kaushalendra ; Kumar, Ravi ; Lai, Taavi ; Lan, Qing ; Larsson, Anders ; Lee, Jong-Tae ; Leinsalu, Mall ; Lim, Stephen ; Lipshultz, Steven ; Logroscino, Giancarlo ; Lotufo, Paulo ; Lunevicius, Raimundas ; Lyons, Ronan ; Ma, Stefan ; Mahdi, Abbas ; Marzan, Melvin ; Mashal, Mohammad ; Mazorodze, Tasara ; McGrath, John ; Memish, Ziad ; Mendoza, Walter ; Mensah, George ; Meretoja, Atte ; Miller, Ted ; Mills, Edward ; Mohammad, Karzan ; Mokdad, Ali ; Monasta, Lorenzo ; Montico, Marcella ; Moore, Ami ; Moschandreas, Joanna ; Msemburi, William ; Mueller, Ulrich ; Muszynska, Magdalena ; Naghavi, Mohsen ; Naidoo, Kovin ; Narayan, KM ; Nejjari, Chakib ; Ng, Marie ; de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean ; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark ; Nyakarahuka, Luke ; Ohkubo, Takayoshi ; Omer, Saad ; Caicedo, Angel ; Wyk, Victoria ; Pope, Dan ; Pourmalek, Farshad ; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj ; Rahman, Sajjad ; Rana, Saleem ; Quentin Reilly, Robert ; Rojas-Rueda, David ; Ronfani, Luca ; Rushton, Lesley ; Saeedi, Mohammad ; Salomon, Joshua ; Sampson, Uchechukwu ; Santos, Itamar ; Sawhney, Monika ; Schmidt, Jürgen ; Shakh-Nazarova, Marina ; She, Jun ; Sheikhbahaei, Sara ; Shibuya, Kenji ; Shin, Hwashin ; Shishani, Kawkab ; Shiue, Ivy ; Sigfusdottir, Inga ; Singh, Jasvinder ; Skirbekk, Vegard ; Sliwa, Karen ; Soshnikov, Sergey ; Sposato, Luciano ; Kalliopi Stathopoulo, Vasiliki ; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos ; Tabb, Karen ; Talongwa, Roberto ; Teixeira, Carolina ; Terkawi, Abdullah ; Thomson, Alan ; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew ; Toyoshima, Hideaki ; Dimbuene, Zacharie ; Uwaliraye, Parfait ; Uzun, Selen ; Vasankari, Tommi ; Vasconcelos, Ana ; Vlassov, Vasiliy ; Vollset, Stein ; Waller, Stephen ; Wan, Xia ; Weichenthal, Scott ; Weiderpass, Elisabete ; Weintraub, Robert ; Westerman, Ronny ; Wilkinson, James ; Williams, Hywel ; Yang, Yang ; Yentur, Gokalp ; Yip, Paul ; Yonemoto, Naohiro ; Younis, Mustafa ; Yu, Chuanhua ; Jin, Kim ; Zaki, Maysaa ; Zhu, Shankuan ; Vos, Theo ; Lopez, Alan ; Murray, Christopher ; al., et. / Global, regional and national levels of neonatal, infant and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. In: Lancet. 2014 ; Vol. 384, No. 9947. pp. 957-979.
    @article{11ec726418754df58132a966829da4f7,
    title = "Global, regional and national levels of neonatal, infant and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013",
    abstract = "Background: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. Methods: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. Findings: We estimated that 6·3 million (95{\%} UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64{\%} reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8{\%} to 0·1{\%}. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6{\%} of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4{\%} in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1{\%} of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. Interpretation: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.",
    keywords = "Child Mortality/trends, Child, Preschool, Global Health/statistics & numerical data, Humans, Infant, Infant Mortality/trends, Infant, Newborn, Organizational Objectives, Risk Factors, Socioeconomic Factors",
    author = "Haidong Wang and Chelsea Liddell and Matthew Coates and Meghan Mooney and Carly Levitz and Austin Schumacher and Henry Apfel and Marissa Iannarone and Bryan Phillips and Katherine Lofgren and Logan Sandar and Rob Dorrington and Ivo Rakovac and Troy Jacobs and Xiaofeng Liang and Maigeng Zhou and Jun Zhu and Gonghuan Yang and Yanping Wang and Shiwei Liu and Yichong Li and Ozgoren, {Ayse Abbasoglu} and Abera, {Semaw Ferede} and Ibrahim Abubakar and Tom Achoki and Ademola Adelekan and Zanfina Ademi and Alemu, {Zewdie Aderaw} and Peter Allen and Mohammad AlMazroa and Elena Alvarez and Adansi Amankwaa and Azmeraw Amare and Walid Ammar and Palwasha Anwari and Solveig Cunningham and Asad, {Majed Masoud} and Reza Assadi and Amitava Banerjee and Sanjay Basu and Neeraj Bedi and Tolesa Bekele and Michelle Bell and Zulfiqar Bhutta and Jed Blore and Berrak Basara and Soufiane Boufous and Nicholas Breitborde and Nigel Bruce and {Ngoc Bui}, Linh and Jonathan Carapetis and Rosario C{\'a}rdenas and David Carpenter and Valeria Caso and Ruben Castro and Ferr{\'a}n Catal{\'a}-Lop{\'e}z and Alanur Cavlin and Xuan Che and Peggy Chiang and Rajiv Chowdhury and Costas Christophi and Ting-Wu Chuang and Massimo Cirillo and Leite, {Iuri da} and Karen Courville and Lalit Dandona and Rakhi Dandona and Adrian Davis and Anand Dayama and Kebede Deribe and Samath Dharmaratne and Mukesh Dherani and Ugur Dilmen and Eric Ding and Karen Edmond and Sergei Ermakov and Farshad Farzadfar and Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad and Fijabi, {Daniel Obadare} and Nataliya Foigt and Mohammad Forouzanfar and Ana Garcia and Johanna Geleijnse and Bradford Gessner and Ketevan Goginashvili and Philimon Gona and Atsushi Goto and Hebe Gouda and Mark Green and Karen Greenwell and {Chander Gugnani}, Harish and Rahul Gupta and Randah Hamadeh and Mouhanad Hammami and Hilda Harb and Simon Hay and Mohammad Hedayati and HDean Hosgood and Damian Hoy and Bulat Idrisov and Farhad Islami and Samaya Ismayilova and Vivekanand Jha and Guohong Jiang and Jost Jonas and Knud Juel and Edmond Kabagambe and Dhruv Kazi and Andre Kengne and Maia Kereselidze and Yousef Khader and {Hassan Khalif}, Shams and Young-Ho Khang and Daniel Kim and Yohannes KINFU and Jonas Kinge and Yoshihiro Kokubo and Soewarta Kosen and Barthelemy Defo and GAnil Kumar and Kaushalendra Kumar and Ravi Kumar and Taavi Lai and Qing Lan and Anders Larsson and Jong-Tae Lee and Mall Leinsalu and Stephen Lim and Steven Lipshultz and Giancarlo Logroscino and Paulo Lotufo and Raimundas Lunevicius and Ronan Lyons and Stefan Ma and Abbas Mahdi and Melvin Marzan and Mohammad Mashal and Tasara Mazorodze and John McGrath and Ziad Memish and Walter Mendoza and George Mensah and Atte Meretoja and Ted Miller and Edward Mills and Karzan Mohammad and Ali Mokdad and Lorenzo Monasta and Marcella Montico and Ami Moore and Joanna Moschandreas and William Msemburi and Ulrich Mueller and Magdalena Muszynska and Mohsen Naghavi and Kovin Naidoo and KM Narayan and Chakib Nejjari and Marie Ng and {de Dieu Ngirabega}, Jean and Mark Nieuwenhuijsen and Luke Nyakarahuka and Takayoshi Ohkubo and Saad Omer and Angel Caicedo and Victoria Wyk and Dan Pope and Farshad Pourmalek and Dorairaj Prabhakaran and Sajjad Rahman and Saleem Rana and {Quentin Reilly}, Robert and David Rojas-Rueda and Luca Ronfani and Lesley Rushton and Mohammad Saeedi and Joshua Salomon and Uchechukwu Sampson and Itamar Santos and Monika Sawhney and J{\"u}rgen Schmidt and Marina Shakh-Nazarova and Jun She and Sara Sheikhbahaei and Kenji Shibuya and Hwashin Shin and Kawkab Shishani and Ivy Shiue and Inga Sigfusdottir and Jasvinder Singh and Vegard Skirbekk and Karen Sliwa and Sergey Soshnikov and Luciano Sposato and {Kalliopi Stathopoulo}, Vasiliki and Konstantinos Stroumpoulis and Karen Tabb and Roberto Talongwa and Carolina Teixeira and Abdullah Terkawi and Alan Thomson and Andrew Thorne-Lyman and Hideaki Toyoshima and Zacharie Dimbuene and Parfait Uwaliraye and Selen Uzun and Tommi Vasankari and Ana Vasconcelos and Vasiliy Vlassov and Stein Vollset and Stephen Waller and Xia Wan and Scott Weichenthal and Elisabete Weiderpass and Robert Weintraub and Ronny Westerman and James Wilkinson and Hywel Williams and Yang Yang and Gokalp Yentur and Paul Yip and Naohiro Yonemoto and Mustafa Younis and Chuanhua Yu and Kim Jin and Maysaa Zaki and Shankuan Zhu and Theo Vos and Alan Lopez and Christopher Murray and et al.,",
    note = "Copyright {\circledC} 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",
    year = "2014",
    doi = "10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60497-9",
    language = "English",
    volume = "384",
    pages = "957--979",
    journal = "Lancet",
    issn = "0140-6736",
    publisher = "Elsevier Limited",
    number = "9947",

    }

    Wang, H, Liddell, C, Coates, M, Mooney, M, Levitz, C, Schumacher, A, Apfel, H, Iannarone, M, Phillips, B, Lofgren, K, Sandar, L, Dorrington, R, Rakovac, I, Jacobs, T, Liang, X, Zhou, M, Zhu, J, Yang, G, Wang, Y, Liu, S, Li, Y, Ozgoren, AA, Abera, SF, Abubakar, I, Achoki, T, Adelekan, A, Ademi, Z, Alemu, ZA, Allen, P, AlMazroa, M, Alvarez, E, Amankwaa, A, Amare, A, Ammar, W, Anwari, P, Cunningham, S, Asad, MM, Assadi, R, Banerjee, A, Basu, S, Bedi, N, Bekele, T, Bell, M, Bhutta, Z, Blore, J, Basara, B, Boufous, S, Breitborde, N, Bruce, N, Ngoc Bui, L, Carapetis, J, Cárdenas, R, Carpenter, D, Caso, V, Castro, R, Catalá-Lopéz, F, Cavlin, A, Che, X, Chiang, P, Chowdhury, R, Christophi, C, Chuang, T-W, Cirillo, M, Leite, I, Courville, K, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Davis, A, Dayama, A, Deribe, K, Dharmaratne, S, Dherani, M, Dilmen, U, Ding, E, Edmond, K, Ermakov, S, Farzadfar, F, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fijabi, DO, Foigt, N, Forouzanfar, M, Garcia, A, Geleijnse, J, Gessner, B, Goginashvili, K, Gona, P, Goto, A, Gouda, H, Green, M, Greenwell, K, Chander Gugnani, H, Gupta, R, Hamadeh, R, Hammami, M, Harb, H, Hay, S, Hedayati, M, Hosgood, HD, Hoy, D, Idrisov, B, Islami, F, Ismayilova, S, Jha, V, Jiang, G, Jonas, J, Juel, K, Kabagambe, E, Kazi, D, Kengne, A, Kereselidze, M, Khader, Y, Hassan Khalif, S, Khang, Y-H, Kim, D, KINFU, Y, Kinge, J, Kokubo, Y, Kosen, S, Defo, B, Kumar, GA, Kumar, K, Kumar, R, Lai, T, Lan, Q, Larsson, A, Lee, J-T, Leinsalu, M, Lim, S, Lipshultz, S, Logroscino, G, Lotufo, P, Lunevicius, R, Lyons, R, Ma, S, Mahdi, A, Marzan, M, Mashal, M, Mazorodze, T, McGrath, J, Memish, Z, Mendoza, W, Mensah, G, Meretoja, A, Miller, T, Mills, E, Mohammad, K, Mokdad, A, Monasta, L, Montico, M, Moore, A, Moschandreas, J, Msemburi, W, Mueller, U, Muszynska, M, Naghavi, M, Naidoo, K, Narayan, KM, Nejjari, C, Ng, M, de Dieu Ngirabega, J, Nieuwenhuijsen, M, Nyakarahuka, L, Ohkubo, T, Omer, S, Caicedo, A, Wyk, V, Pope, D, Pourmalek, F, Prabhakaran, D, Rahman, S, Rana, S, Quentin Reilly, R, Rojas-Rueda, D, Ronfani, L, Rushton, L, Saeedi, M, Salomon, J, Sampson, U, Santos, I, Sawhney, M, Schmidt, J, Shakh-Nazarova, M, She, J, Sheikhbahaei, S, Shibuya, K, Shin, H, Shishani, K, Shiue, I, Sigfusdottir, I, Singh, J, Skirbekk, V, Sliwa, K, Soshnikov, S, Sposato, L, Kalliopi Stathopoulo, V, Stroumpoulis, K, Tabb, K, Talongwa, R, Teixeira, C, Terkawi, A, Thomson, A, Thorne-Lyman, A, Toyoshima, H, Dimbuene, Z, Uwaliraye, P, Uzun, S, Vasankari, T, Vasconcelos, A, Vlassov, V, Vollset, S, Waller, S, Wan, X, Weichenthal, S, Weiderpass, E, Weintraub, R, Westerman, R, Wilkinson, J, Williams, H, Yang, Y, Yentur, G, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Younis, M, Yu, C, Jin, K, Zaki, M, Zhu, S, Vos, T, Lopez, A, Murray, C & al., E 2014, 'Global, regional and national levels of neonatal, infant and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013', Lancet, vol. 384, no. 9947, pp. 957-979. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60497-9

    Global, regional and national levels of neonatal, infant and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. / Wang, Haidong; Liddell, Chelsea; Coates, Matthew; Mooney, Meghan; Levitz, Carly; Schumacher, Austin; Apfel, Henry; Iannarone, Marissa; Phillips, Bryan; Lofgren, Katherine; Sandar, Logan; Dorrington, Rob; Rakovac, Ivo; Jacobs, Troy; Liang, Xiaofeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Zhu, Jun; Yang, Gonghuan; Wang, Yanping; Liu, Shiwei; Li, Yichong; Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola; Ademi, Zanfina; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Allen, Peter; AlMazroa, Mohammad; Alvarez, Elena; Amankwaa, Adansi; Amare, Azmeraw; Ammar, Walid; Anwari, Palwasha; Cunningham, Solveig; Asad, Majed Masoud; Assadi, Reza; Banerjee, Amitava; Basu, Sanjay; Bedi, Neeraj; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle; Bhutta, Zulfiqar; Blore, Jed; Basara, Berrak; Boufous, Soufiane; Breitborde, Nicholas; Bruce, Nigel; Ngoc Bui, Linh; Carapetis, Jonathan; Cárdenas, Rosario; Carpenter, David; Caso, Valeria; Castro, Ruben; Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán; Cavlin, Alanur; Che, Xuan; Chiang, Peggy; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christophi, Costas; Chuang, Ting-Wu; Cirillo, Massimo; Leite, Iuri da; Courville, Karen; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Davis, Adrian; Dayama, Anand; Deribe, Kebede; Dharmaratne, Samath; Dherani, Mukesh; Dilmen, Ugur; Ding, Eric; Edmond, Karen; Ermakov, Sergei; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fijabi, Daniel Obadare; Foigt, Nataliya; Forouzanfar, Mohammad; Garcia, Ana; Geleijnse, Johanna; Gessner, Bradford; Goginashvili, Ketevan; Gona, Philimon; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe; Green, Mark; Greenwell, Karen; Chander Gugnani, Harish; Gupta, Rahul; Hamadeh, Randah; Hammami, Mouhanad; Harb, Hilda; Hay, Simon; Hedayati, Mohammad; Hosgood, HDean; Hoy, Damian; Idrisov, Bulat; Islami, Farhad; Ismayilova, Samaya; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Guohong; Jonas, Jost; Juel, Knud; Kabagambe, Edmond; Kazi, Dhruv; Kengne, Andre; Kereselidze, Maia; Khader, Yousef; Hassan Khalif, Shams; Khang, Young-Ho; Kim, Daniel; KINFU, Yohannes; Kinge, Jonas; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kosen, Soewarta; Defo, Barthelemy; Kumar, GAnil; Kumar, Kaushalendra; Kumar, Ravi; Lai, Taavi; Lan, Qing; Larsson, Anders; Lee, Jong-Tae; Leinsalu, Mall; Lim, Stephen; Lipshultz, Steven; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Lotufo, Paulo; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Lyons, Ronan; Ma, Stefan; Mahdi, Abbas; Marzan, Melvin; Mashal, Mohammad; Mazorodze, Tasara; McGrath, John; Memish, Ziad; Mendoza, Walter; Mensah, George; Meretoja, Atte; Miller, Ted; Mills, Edward; Mohammad, Karzan; Mokdad, Ali; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montico, Marcella; Moore, Ami; Moschandreas, Joanna; Msemburi, William; Mueller, Ulrich; Muszynska, Magdalena; Naghavi, Mohsen; Naidoo, Kovin; Narayan, KM; Nejjari, Chakib; Ng, Marie; de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Omer, Saad; Caicedo, Angel; Wyk, Victoria; Pope, Dan; Pourmalek, Farshad; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Rahman, Sajjad; Rana, Saleem; Quentin Reilly, Robert; Rojas-Rueda, David; Ronfani, Luca; Rushton, Lesley; Saeedi, Mohammad; Salomon, Joshua; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Santos, Itamar; Sawhney, Monika; Schmidt, Jürgen; Shakh-Nazarova, Marina; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Hwashin; Shishani, Kawkab; Shiue, Ivy; Sigfusdottir, Inga; Singh, Jasvinder; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sliwa, Karen; Soshnikov, Sergey; Sposato, Luciano; Kalliopi Stathopoulo, Vasiliki; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Tabb, Karen; Talongwa, Roberto; Teixeira, Carolina; Terkawi, Abdullah; Thomson, Alan; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Dimbuene, Zacharie; Uwaliraye, Parfait; Uzun, Selen; Vasankari, Tommi; Vasconcelos, Ana; Vlassov, Vasiliy; Vollset, Stein; Waller, Stephen; Wan, Xia; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert; Westerman, Ronny; Wilkinson, James; Williams, Hywel; Yang, Yang; Yentur, Gokalp; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Younis, Mustafa; Yu, Chuanhua; Jin, Kim; Zaki, Maysaa; Zhu, Shankuan; Vos, Theo; Lopez, Alan; Murray, Christopher; al., et.

    In: Lancet, Vol. 384, No. 9947, 2014, p. 957-979.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Global, regional and national levels of neonatal, infant and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

    AU - Wang, Haidong

    AU - Liddell, Chelsea

    AU - Coates, Matthew

    AU - Mooney, Meghan

    AU - Levitz, Carly

    AU - Schumacher, Austin

    AU - Apfel, Henry

    AU - Iannarone, Marissa

    AU - Phillips, Bryan

    AU - Lofgren, Katherine

    AU - Sandar, Logan

    AU - Dorrington, Rob

    AU - Rakovac, Ivo

    AU - Jacobs, Troy

    AU - Liang, Xiaofeng

    AU - Zhou, Maigeng

    AU - Zhu, Jun

    AU - Yang, Gonghuan

    AU - Wang, Yanping

    AU - Liu, Shiwei

    AU - Li, Yichong

    AU - Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu

    AU - Abera, Semaw Ferede

    AU - Abubakar, Ibrahim

    AU - Achoki, Tom

    AU - Adelekan, Ademola

    AU - Ademi, Zanfina

    AU - Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw

    AU - Allen, Peter

    AU - AlMazroa, Mohammad

    AU - Alvarez, Elena

    AU - Amankwaa, Adansi

    AU - Amare, Azmeraw

    AU - Ammar, Walid

    AU - Anwari, Palwasha

    AU - Cunningham, Solveig

    AU - Asad, Majed Masoud

    AU - Assadi, Reza

    AU - Banerjee, Amitava

    AU - Basu, Sanjay

    AU - Bedi, Neeraj

    AU - Bekele, Tolesa

    AU - Bell, Michelle

    AU - Bhutta, Zulfiqar

    AU - Blore, Jed

    AU - Basara, Berrak

    AU - Boufous, Soufiane

    AU - Breitborde, Nicholas

    AU - Bruce, Nigel

    AU - Ngoc Bui, Linh

    AU - Carapetis, Jonathan

    AU - Cárdenas, Rosario

    AU - Carpenter, David

    AU - Caso, Valeria

    AU - Castro, Ruben

    AU - Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán

    AU - Cavlin, Alanur

    AU - Che, Xuan

    AU - Chiang, Peggy

    AU - Chowdhury, Rajiv

    AU - Christophi, Costas

    AU - Chuang, Ting-Wu

    AU - Cirillo, Massimo

    AU - Leite, Iuri da

    AU - Courville, Karen

    AU - Dandona, Lalit

    AU - Dandona, Rakhi

    AU - Davis, Adrian

    AU - Dayama, Anand

    AU - Deribe, Kebede

    AU - Dharmaratne, Samath

    AU - Dherani, Mukesh

    AU - Dilmen, Ugur

    AU - Ding, Eric

    AU - Edmond, Karen

    AU - Ermakov, Sergei

    AU - Farzadfar, Farshad

    AU - Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad

    AU - Fijabi, Daniel Obadare

    AU - Foigt, Nataliya

    AU - Forouzanfar, Mohammad

    AU - Garcia, Ana

    AU - Geleijnse, Johanna

    AU - Gessner, Bradford

    AU - Goginashvili, Ketevan

    AU - Gona, Philimon

    AU - Goto, Atsushi

    AU - Gouda, Hebe

    AU - Green, Mark

    AU - Greenwell, Karen

    AU - Chander Gugnani, Harish

    AU - Gupta, Rahul

    AU - Hamadeh, Randah

    AU - Hammami, Mouhanad

    AU - Harb, Hilda

    AU - Hay, Simon

    AU - Hedayati, Mohammad

    AU - Hosgood, HDean

    AU - Hoy, Damian

    AU - Idrisov, Bulat

    AU - Islami, Farhad

    AU - Ismayilova, Samaya

    AU - Jha, Vivekanand

    AU - Jiang, Guohong

    AU - Jonas, Jost

    AU - Juel, Knud

    AU - Kabagambe, Edmond

    AU - Kazi, Dhruv

    AU - Kengne, Andre

    AU - Kereselidze, Maia

    AU - Khader, Yousef

    AU - Hassan Khalif, Shams

    AU - Khang, Young-Ho

    AU - Kim, Daniel

    AU - KINFU, Yohannes

    AU - Kinge, Jonas

    AU - Kokubo, Yoshihiro

    AU - Kosen, Soewarta

    AU - Defo, Barthelemy

    AU - Kumar, GAnil

    AU - Kumar, Kaushalendra

    AU - Kumar, Ravi

    AU - Lai, Taavi

    AU - Lan, Qing

    AU - Larsson, Anders

    AU - Lee, Jong-Tae

    AU - Leinsalu, Mall

    AU - Lim, Stephen

    AU - Lipshultz, Steven

    AU - Logroscino, Giancarlo

    AU - Lotufo, Paulo

    AU - Lunevicius, Raimundas

    AU - Lyons, Ronan

    AU - Ma, Stefan

    AU - Mahdi, Abbas

    AU - Marzan, Melvin

    AU - Mashal, Mohammad

    AU - Mazorodze, Tasara

    AU - McGrath, John

    AU - Memish, Ziad

    AU - Mendoza, Walter

    AU - Mensah, George

    AU - Meretoja, Atte

    AU - Miller, Ted

    AU - Mills, Edward

    AU - Mohammad, Karzan

    AU - Mokdad, Ali

    AU - Monasta, Lorenzo

    AU - Montico, Marcella

    AU - Moore, Ami

    AU - Moschandreas, Joanna

    AU - Msemburi, William

    AU - Mueller, Ulrich

    AU - Muszynska, Magdalena

    AU - Naghavi, Mohsen

    AU - Naidoo, Kovin

    AU - Narayan, KM

    AU - Nejjari, Chakib

    AU - Ng, Marie

    AU - de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean

    AU - Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark

    AU - Nyakarahuka, Luke

    AU - Ohkubo, Takayoshi

    AU - Omer, Saad

    AU - Caicedo, Angel

    AU - Wyk, Victoria

    AU - Pope, Dan

    AU - Pourmalek, Farshad

    AU - Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

    AU - Rahman, Sajjad

    AU - Rana, Saleem

    AU - Quentin Reilly, Robert

    AU - Rojas-Rueda, David

    AU - Ronfani, Luca

    AU - Rushton, Lesley

    AU - Saeedi, Mohammad

    AU - Salomon, Joshua

    AU - Sampson, Uchechukwu

    AU - Santos, Itamar

    AU - Sawhney, Monika

    AU - Schmidt, Jürgen

    AU - Shakh-Nazarova, Marina

    AU - She, Jun

    AU - Sheikhbahaei, Sara

    AU - Shibuya, Kenji

    AU - Shin, Hwashin

    AU - Shishani, Kawkab

    AU - Shiue, Ivy

    AU - Sigfusdottir, Inga

    AU - Singh, Jasvinder

    AU - Skirbekk, Vegard

    AU - Sliwa, Karen

    AU - Soshnikov, Sergey

    AU - Sposato, Luciano

    AU - Kalliopi Stathopoulo, Vasiliki

    AU - Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos

    AU - Tabb, Karen

    AU - Talongwa, Roberto

    AU - Teixeira, Carolina

    AU - Terkawi, Abdullah

    AU - Thomson, Alan

    AU - Thorne-Lyman, Andrew

    AU - Toyoshima, Hideaki

    AU - Dimbuene, Zacharie

    AU - Uwaliraye, Parfait

    AU - Uzun, Selen

    AU - Vasankari, Tommi

    AU - Vasconcelos, Ana

    AU - Vlassov, Vasiliy

    AU - Vollset, Stein

    AU - Waller, Stephen

    AU - Wan, Xia

    AU - Weichenthal, Scott

    AU - Weiderpass, Elisabete

    AU - Weintraub, Robert

    AU - Westerman, Ronny

    AU - Wilkinson, James

    AU - Williams, Hywel

    AU - Yang, Yang

    AU - Yentur, Gokalp

    AU - Yip, Paul

    AU - Yonemoto, Naohiro

    AU - Younis, Mustafa

    AU - Yu, Chuanhua

    AU - Jin, Kim

    AU - Zaki, Maysaa

    AU - Zhu, Shankuan

    AU - Vos, Theo

    AU - Lopez, Alan

    AU - Murray, Christopher

    AU - al.,, et

    N1 - Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

    PY - 2014

    Y1 - 2014

    N2 - Background: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. Methods: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. Findings: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. Interpretation: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.

    AB - Background: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. Methods: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. Findings: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. Interpretation: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.

    KW - Child Mortality/trends

    KW - Child, Preschool

    KW - Global Health/statistics & numerical data

    KW - Humans

    KW - Infant

    KW - Infant Mortality/trends

    KW - Infant, Newborn

    KW - Organizational Objectives

    KW - Risk Factors

    KW - Socioeconomic Factors

    UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84904972811&partnerID=8YFLogxK

    U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60497-9

    DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60497-9

    M3 - Article

    VL - 384

    SP - 957

    EP - 979

    JO - Lancet

    JF - Lancet

    SN - 0140-6736

    IS - 9947

    ER -