How can knowledge of the climate niche inform the weed risk assessment process? A case study of Chrysanthemoides monilifera in Australia

Linda Beaumont, Rachael Gallagher, Michelle Leishman, Lesley Hughes, Paul DOWNEY

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    19 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Aim Climate change and the ability of alien populations to realize different climatic niches compared to native populations pose challenges for pre-empting invasion risk. These issues are not addressed in Weed Risk Assessments (WRAs), which have been developed to identify potentially invasive species and prevent their importation. Chrysanthemoides monilifera, native to Southern Africa, has two subspecies invasive in Australia, which has led to an importation ban on all six subspecies. We assess whether the two invasive subspecies occupy different realized climatic niches, compared with native populations, and the climatic suitability of Australia for all subspecies under current and future climate scenarios. Location Southern Africa and Australia Methods Realized climatic niches of native and alien populations of two invasive subspecies (Bitou Bush and Boneseed) were compared using niche identity tests. The distribution of climatically suitable habitat within Australia for all subspecies was modelled using MaxEnt, under current and future climate scenarios. For invasive subspecies, models were calibrated using (1) native or (2) alien range data. Results Realized climatic niches of native and alien populations are not identical, with some alien populations of Boneseed occupying climatic niches absent from Southern Africa. As such, MaxEnt models for Boneseed based on native range data failed to classify one-third of Australian populations as inhabiting suitable climate. Main Conclusions We validate the Australian decision to ban all subspecies by showing that climatically suitable habitat in Australia for non-introduced subspecies exceeds that of introduced subspecies, under current and future climates. Niche shifts and climate change alter estimates of invasion risks, and this may reduce efficacy of current WRAs. We call for greater dialogue to identify and standardize a comprehensive system for incorporating these challenging issues into WRA systems to ensure that they remain effective in reducing the weed risk into the future.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)613-625
    Number of pages13
    JournalDiversity and Distributions
    Volume20
    Issue number6
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2014

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    Chrysanthemoides monilifera
    risk assessment process
    subspecies
    weed
    niche
    niches
    risk assessment
    weeds
    case studies
    climate
    Southern Africa
    climate change
    habitats
    invasive species
    habitat

    Cite this

    Beaumont, Linda ; Gallagher, Rachael ; Leishman, Michelle ; Hughes, Lesley ; DOWNEY, Paul. / How can knowledge of the climate niche inform the weed risk assessment process? A case study of Chrysanthemoides monilifera in Australia. In: Diversity and Distributions. 2014 ; Vol. 20, No. 6. pp. 613-625.
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    title = "How can knowledge of the climate niche inform the weed risk assessment process? A case study of Chrysanthemoides monilifera in Australia",
    abstract = "Aim Climate change and the ability of alien populations to realize different climatic niches compared to native populations pose challenges for pre-empting invasion risk. These issues are not addressed in Weed Risk Assessments (WRAs), which have been developed to identify potentially invasive species and prevent their importation. Chrysanthemoides monilifera, native to Southern Africa, has two subspecies invasive in Australia, which has led to an importation ban on all six subspecies. We assess whether the two invasive subspecies occupy different realized climatic niches, compared with native populations, and the climatic suitability of Australia for all subspecies under current and future climate scenarios. Location Southern Africa and Australia Methods Realized climatic niches of native and alien populations of two invasive subspecies (Bitou Bush and Boneseed) were compared using niche identity tests. The distribution of climatically suitable habitat within Australia for all subspecies was modelled using MaxEnt, under current and future climate scenarios. For invasive subspecies, models were calibrated using (1) native or (2) alien range data. Results Realized climatic niches of native and alien populations are not identical, with some alien populations of Boneseed occupying climatic niches absent from Southern Africa. As such, MaxEnt models for Boneseed based on native range data failed to classify one-third of Australian populations as inhabiting suitable climate. Main Conclusions We validate the Australian decision to ban all subspecies by showing that climatically suitable habitat in Australia for non-introduced subspecies exceeds that of introduced subspecies, under current and future climates. Niche shifts and climate change alter estimates of invasion risks, and this may reduce efficacy of current WRAs. We call for greater dialogue to identify and standardize a comprehensive system for incorporating these challenging issues into WRA systems to ensure that they remain effective in reducing the weed risk into the future.",
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    author = "Linda Beaumont and Rachael Gallagher and Michelle Leishman and Lesley Hughes and Paul DOWNEY",
    year = "2014",
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    How can knowledge of the climate niche inform the weed risk assessment process? A case study of Chrysanthemoides monilifera in Australia. / Beaumont, Linda; Gallagher, Rachael; Leishman, Michelle; Hughes, Lesley; DOWNEY, Paul.

    In: Diversity and Distributions, Vol. 20, No. 6, 2014, p. 613-625.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - How can knowledge of the climate niche inform the weed risk assessment process? A case study of Chrysanthemoides monilifera in Australia

    AU - Beaumont, Linda

    AU - Gallagher, Rachael

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    AU - Hughes, Lesley

    AU - DOWNEY, Paul

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    N2 - Aim Climate change and the ability of alien populations to realize different climatic niches compared to native populations pose challenges for pre-empting invasion risk. These issues are not addressed in Weed Risk Assessments (WRAs), which have been developed to identify potentially invasive species and prevent their importation. Chrysanthemoides monilifera, native to Southern Africa, has two subspecies invasive in Australia, which has led to an importation ban on all six subspecies. We assess whether the two invasive subspecies occupy different realized climatic niches, compared with native populations, and the climatic suitability of Australia for all subspecies under current and future climate scenarios. Location Southern Africa and Australia Methods Realized climatic niches of native and alien populations of two invasive subspecies (Bitou Bush and Boneseed) were compared using niche identity tests. The distribution of climatically suitable habitat within Australia for all subspecies was modelled using MaxEnt, under current and future climate scenarios. For invasive subspecies, models were calibrated using (1) native or (2) alien range data. Results Realized climatic niches of native and alien populations are not identical, with some alien populations of Boneseed occupying climatic niches absent from Southern Africa. As such, MaxEnt models for Boneseed based on native range data failed to classify one-third of Australian populations as inhabiting suitable climate. Main Conclusions We validate the Australian decision to ban all subspecies by showing that climatically suitable habitat in Australia for non-introduced subspecies exceeds that of introduced subspecies, under current and future climates. Niche shifts and climate change alter estimates of invasion risks, and this may reduce efficacy of current WRAs. We call for greater dialogue to identify and standardize a comprehensive system for incorporating these challenging issues into WRA systems to ensure that they remain effective in reducing the weed risk into the future.

    AB - Aim Climate change and the ability of alien populations to realize different climatic niches compared to native populations pose challenges for pre-empting invasion risk. These issues are not addressed in Weed Risk Assessments (WRAs), which have been developed to identify potentially invasive species and prevent their importation. Chrysanthemoides monilifera, native to Southern Africa, has two subspecies invasive in Australia, which has led to an importation ban on all six subspecies. We assess whether the two invasive subspecies occupy different realized climatic niches, compared with native populations, and the climatic suitability of Australia for all subspecies under current and future climate scenarios. Location Southern Africa and Australia Methods Realized climatic niches of native and alien populations of two invasive subspecies (Bitou Bush and Boneseed) were compared using niche identity tests. The distribution of climatically suitable habitat within Australia for all subspecies was modelled using MaxEnt, under current and future climate scenarios. For invasive subspecies, models were calibrated using (1) native or (2) alien range data. Results Realized climatic niches of native and alien populations are not identical, with some alien populations of Boneseed occupying climatic niches absent from Southern Africa. As such, MaxEnt models for Boneseed based on native range data failed to classify one-third of Australian populations as inhabiting suitable climate. Main Conclusions We validate the Australian decision to ban all subspecies by showing that climatically suitable habitat in Australia for non-introduced subspecies exceeds that of introduced subspecies, under current and future climates. Niche shifts and climate change alter estimates of invasion risks, and this may reduce efficacy of current WRAs. We call for greater dialogue to identify and standardize a comprehensive system for incorporating these challenging issues into WRA systems to ensure that they remain effective in reducing the weed risk into the future.

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    KW - Weed Risk Assessment.

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    KW - Climate change

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