Is the relationship between predator and prey abundances

Jim Hone, Charles KREBS, Mark O'Donoghue

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    10 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Abstract Context. Predator dynamics may be related to prey abundance and influenced by environmental effects, such as climate. Predatorâ¿¿prey interactions may be represented by mechanistic models that comprise a deterministic skeleton with stochastic climatic forcing. Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate on predatorâ¿¿prey dynamics. The lynx and snowshoe hare predatorâ¿¿prey system in the Kluane region of the Yukon, Canada, is used as a case study. The specific hypothesis is that climate influences the relationship between lynx and hare abundance. Methods.Weevaluate 10 linear relationships between predator and prey abundance and effects of climate.Weuse data on lynx and snowshoe hare abundance over 21 years in the Yukon as the predatorâ¿¿prey system, and three alternative broad-scale climate indices: the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific North American (PNA) index and the North Pacific index (NPI). Key results. There was more support, as assessed by Akaike weights (wi = 0.600), evidence ratio (=4.73) andR2 (=0.77) for a model of predator (lynx) and prior prey (hare) abundance with an effect of prior climate (winter NAO) when combined in a multiplicative, rather than in an additive, manner. The results infer that climate changes the amplitude of the lynx cycle with lower predator (lynx) abundance with positive values of winter NAO for a given hare density. Conclusions. The study provides evidence that predatorâ¿¿prey dynamics are related to climate in an interactive manner. The ecological mechanism for the interactive effect is not clear, and alternative hypotheses are proposed for future evaluation. Implications. The study implies that changes in climate may alter predatorâ¿¿prey relationships.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)419-425
    Number of pages7
    JournalWildlife Research
    Volume38
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2011

    Fingerprint

    Lynx
    predator
    hares
    climate
    predators
    North Atlantic Oscillation
    Yukon Territory
    winter
    climate change
    Lepus americanus
    mechanistic models
    skeleton
    environmental effect
    Canada
    case studies
    effect

    Cite this

    Hone, Jim ; KREBS, Charles ; O'Donoghue, Mark. / Is the relationship between predator and prey abundances. In: Wildlife Research. 2011 ; Vol. 38. pp. 419-425.
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    title = "Is the relationship between predator and prey abundances",
    abstract = "Abstract Context. Predator dynamics may be related to prey abundance and influenced by environmental effects, such as climate. Predator{\^a}¿¿prey interactions may be represented by mechanistic models that comprise a deterministic skeleton with stochastic climatic forcing. Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate on predator{\^a}¿¿prey dynamics. The lynx and snowshoe hare predator{\^a}¿¿prey system in the Kluane region of the Yukon, Canada, is used as a case study. The specific hypothesis is that climate influences the relationship between lynx and hare abundance. Methods.Weevaluate 10 linear relationships between predator and prey abundance and effects of climate.Weuse data on lynx and snowshoe hare abundance over 21 years in the Yukon as the predator{\^a}¿¿prey system, and three alternative broad-scale climate indices: the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific North American (PNA) index and the North Pacific index (NPI). Key results. There was more support, as assessed by Akaike weights (wi = 0.600), evidence ratio (=4.73) andR2 (=0.77) for a model of predator (lynx) and prior prey (hare) abundance with an effect of prior climate (winter NAO) when combined in a multiplicative, rather than in an additive, manner. The results infer that climate changes the amplitude of the lynx cycle with lower predator (lynx) abundance with positive values of winter NAO for a given hare density. Conclusions. The study provides evidence that predator{\^a}¿¿prey dynamics are related to climate in an interactive manner. The ecological mechanism for the interactive effect is not clear, and alternative hypotheses are proposed for future evaluation. Implications. The study implies that changes in climate may alter predator{\^a}¿¿prey relationships.",
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    year = "2011",
    doi = "10.1071/WR11009",
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    }

    Is the relationship between predator and prey abundances. / Hone, Jim; KREBS, Charles; O'Donoghue, Mark.

    In: Wildlife Research, Vol. 38, 2011, p. 419-425.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Is the relationship between predator and prey abundances

    AU - Hone, Jim

    AU - KREBS, Charles

    AU - O'Donoghue, Mark

    PY - 2011

    Y1 - 2011

    N2 - Abstract Context. Predator dynamics may be related to prey abundance and influenced by environmental effects, such as climate. Predatorâ¿¿prey interactions may be represented by mechanistic models that comprise a deterministic skeleton with stochastic climatic forcing. Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate on predatorâ¿¿prey dynamics. The lynx and snowshoe hare predatorâ¿¿prey system in the Kluane region of the Yukon, Canada, is used as a case study. The specific hypothesis is that climate influences the relationship between lynx and hare abundance. Methods.Weevaluate 10 linear relationships between predator and prey abundance and effects of climate.Weuse data on lynx and snowshoe hare abundance over 21 years in the Yukon as the predatorâ¿¿prey system, and three alternative broad-scale climate indices: the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific North American (PNA) index and the North Pacific index (NPI). Key results. There was more support, as assessed by Akaike weights (wi = 0.600), evidence ratio (=4.73) andR2 (=0.77) for a model of predator (lynx) and prior prey (hare) abundance with an effect of prior climate (winter NAO) when combined in a multiplicative, rather than in an additive, manner. The results infer that climate changes the amplitude of the lynx cycle with lower predator (lynx) abundance with positive values of winter NAO for a given hare density. Conclusions. The study provides evidence that predatorâ¿¿prey dynamics are related to climate in an interactive manner. The ecological mechanism for the interactive effect is not clear, and alternative hypotheses are proposed for future evaluation. Implications. The study implies that changes in climate may alter predatorâ¿¿prey relationships.

    AB - Abstract Context. Predator dynamics may be related to prey abundance and influenced by environmental effects, such as climate. Predatorâ¿¿prey interactions may be represented by mechanistic models that comprise a deterministic skeleton with stochastic climatic forcing. Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate on predatorâ¿¿prey dynamics. The lynx and snowshoe hare predatorâ¿¿prey system in the Kluane region of the Yukon, Canada, is used as a case study. The specific hypothesis is that climate influences the relationship between lynx and hare abundance. Methods.Weevaluate 10 linear relationships between predator and prey abundance and effects of climate.Weuse data on lynx and snowshoe hare abundance over 21 years in the Yukon as the predatorâ¿¿prey system, and three alternative broad-scale climate indices: the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific North American (PNA) index and the North Pacific index (NPI). Key results. There was more support, as assessed by Akaike weights (wi = 0.600), evidence ratio (=4.73) andR2 (=0.77) for a model of predator (lynx) and prior prey (hare) abundance with an effect of prior climate (winter NAO) when combined in a multiplicative, rather than in an additive, manner. The results infer that climate changes the amplitude of the lynx cycle with lower predator (lynx) abundance with positive values of winter NAO for a given hare density. Conclusions. The study provides evidence that predatorâ¿¿prey dynamics are related to climate in an interactive manner. The ecological mechanism for the interactive effect is not clear, and alternative hypotheses are proposed for future evaluation. Implications. The study implies that changes in climate may alter predatorâ¿¿prey relationships.

    KW - Climate change

    KW - Lynx canadensis

    KW - North Atlantic Oscillation

    KW - population dynamics

    KW - predatorâ¿¿prey

    KW - models.

    U2 - 10.1071/WR11009

    DO - 10.1071/WR11009

    M3 - Article

    VL - 38

    SP - 419

    EP - 425

    JO - Australian Wildlife Research

    JF - Australian Wildlife Research

    SN - 1035-3712

    ER -