Measuring potential vulnerabilities in emerging market economies

John Hawkins, Mark Klau

Research output: Working paper

Abstract

This paper describes some experiments with the construction of relatively simple indices which summarise in a systematic and objective way information about emerging economies currently under pressure in financial markets and those vulnerable to such pressure in the future. A survey of the literature suggests financial crises are typically preceded by overvalued exchange rates, inadequate
international reserves, recessions and excessive credit growth. These indicators and others, such as short-term external debt, which appear more important in recent crises are included in the summary indices of vulnerability. The vulnerability indices are shown to have modest predictive power for the pressure index but are far from conclusive in themselves.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationBasel, Switzerland
PublisherBank for International Settlements
Number of pages46
Publication statusPublished - 2000

Publication series

NameBIS Working Papers
PublisherBank for International Settlements
ISSN (Print)1020-0959

Fingerprint

Emerging market economies
Vulnerability
Recession
Financial markets
Financial crisis
Predictive power
Emerging economies
Experiment
Exchange rates
External debt
Credit growth

Cite this

Hawkins, J., & Klau, M. (2000). Measuring potential vulnerabilities in emerging market economies. (BIS Working Papers). Basel, Switzerland: Bank for International Settlements.
Hawkins, John ; Klau, Mark. / Measuring potential vulnerabilities in emerging market economies. Basel, Switzerland : Bank for International Settlements, 2000. (BIS Working Papers).
@techreport{def8e0d6e20741cc9b2580cf268e4695,
title = "Measuring potential vulnerabilities in emerging market economies",
abstract = "This paper describes some experiments with the construction of relatively simple indices which summarise in a systematic and objective way information about emerging economies currently under pressure in financial markets and those vulnerable to such pressure in the future. A survey of the literature suggests financial crises are typically preceded by overvalued exchange rates, inadequateinternational reserves, recessions and excessive credit growth. These indicators and others, such as short-term external debt, which appear more important in recent crises are included in the summary indices of vulnerability. The vulnerability indices are shown to have modest predictive power for the pressure index but are far from conclusive in themselves.",
author = "John Hawkins and Mark Klau",
year = "2000",
language = "English",
series = "BIS Working Papers",
publisher = "Bank for International Settlements",
type = "WorkingPaper",
institution = "Bank for International Settlements",

}

Hawkins, J & Klau, M 2000 'Measuring potential vulnerabilities in emerging market economies' BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland.

Measuring potential vulnerabilities in emerging market economies. / Hawkins, John; Klau, Mark.

Basel, Switzerland : Bank for International Settlements, 2000. (BIS Working Papers).

Research output: Working paper

TY - UNPB

T1 - Measuring potential vulnerabilities in emerging market economies

AU - Hawkins, John

AU - Klau, Mark

PY - 2000

Y1 - 2000

N2 - This paper describes some experiments with the construction of relatively simple indices which summarise in a systematic and objective way information about emerging economies currently under pressure in financial markets and those vulnerable to such pressure in the future. A survey of the literature suggests financial crises are typically preceded by overvalued exchange rates, inadequateinternational reserves, recessions and excessive credit growth. These indicators and others, such as short-term external debt, which appear more important in recent crises are included in the summary indices of vulnerability. The vulnerability indices are shown to have modest predictive power for the pressure index but are far from conclusive in themselves.

AB - This paper describes some experiments with the construction of relatively simple indices which summarise in a systematic and objective way information about emerging economies currently under pressure in financial markets and those vulnerable to such pressure in the future. A survey of the literature suggests financial crises are typically preceded by overvalued exchange rates, inadequateinternational reserves, recessions and excessive credit growth. These indicators and others, such as short-term external debt, which appear more important in recent crises are included in the summary indices of vulnerability. The vulnerability indices are shown to have modest predictive power for the pressure index but are far from conclusive in themselves.

M3 - Working paper

T3 - BIS Working Papers

BT - Measuring potential vulnerabilities in emerging market economies

PB - Bank for International Settlements

CY - Basel, Switzerland

ER -

Hawkins J, Klau M. Measuring potential vulnerabilities in emerging market economies. Basel, Switzerland: Bank for International Settlements. 2000. (BIS Working Papers).