Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries

an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Amanuel AlemuAbajobir, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Kaja Abbas, Foad Abd-Allah, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Abdishakur M Abdulle, Semaw Ferede Abera, Victor Aboyans, Laith J. Abu-Raddad, Niveen M. E Abu-Rmeileh, Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji, Olatunji Adetokunboh, Ashkan Afshin, Anurag Agrawal, Sutapa Agrawal, Aliasghar Kiadaliri, Hamid Ahmadieh, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour & 1 others Yohannes KINFU

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

93 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.Methods: We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings: Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9–66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6–88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1–87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8–87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6–11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8–13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5–13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2–8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1423-1459
Number of pages37
JournalThe Lancet
Volume390
Issue number10100
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 16 Sep 2017

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Population Growth
Conservation of Natural Resources
Health
Central African Republic
Universal Coverage
Equatorial Guinea
Lesotho
Somalia
Global Burden of Disease
Laos
Rwanda
Cambodia
Iceland
Afghanistan
Mortality
United Nations
Maternal Mortality
Quality of Health Care
Singapore
Wounds and Injuries

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AlemuAbajobir, Amanuel ; Hassen Abate, Kalkidan ; Abbafati, Cristiana ; Abbas, Kaja ; Abd-Allah, Foad ; Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Rizwan ; Abdulle, Abdishakur M ; Abera, Semaw Ferede ; Aboyans, Victor ; Abu-Raddad, Laith J. ; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E ; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi ; Adetokunboh, Olatunji ; Afshin, Ashkan ; Agrawal, Anurag ; Agrawal, Sutapa ; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar ; Ahmadieh, Hamid ; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir ; Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine ; KINFU, Yohannes. / Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries : an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. In: The Lancet. 2017 ; Vol. 390, No. 10100. pp. 1423-1459.
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abstract = "Background: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.Methods: We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings: Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9–66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95{\%} uncertainty interval 84·6–88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1–87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8–87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6–11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8–13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5–13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2–8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60{\%} of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5{\%} of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past",
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author = "Amanuel AlemuAbajobir and {Hassen Abate}, Kalkidan and Cristiana Abbafati and Kaja Abbas and Foad Abd-Allah and {Suliankatchi Abdulkader}, Rizwan and Abdulle, {Abdishakur M} and Abera, {Semaw Ferede} and Victor Aboyans and Abu-Raddad, {Laith J.} and Abu-Rmeileh, {Niveen M. E} and Adedeji, {Isaac Akinkunmi} and Olatunji Adetokunboh and Ashkan Afshin and Anurag Agrawal and Sutapa Agrawal and Aliasghar Kiadaliri and Hamid Ahmadieh and Ahmed, {Muktar Beshir} and Aichour, {Miloud Taki Eddine} and Yohannes KINFU",
note = "Copyright {\circledC} 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.",
year = "2017",
month = "9",
day = "16",
doi = "10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X",
language = "English",
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pages = "1423--1459",
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AlemuAbajobir, A, Hassen Abate, K, Abbafati, C, Abbas, K, Abd-Allah, F, Suliankatchi Abdulkader, R, Abdulle, AM, Abera, SF, Aboyans, V, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abu-Rmeileh, NME, Adedeji, IA, Adetokunboh, O, Afshin, A, Agrawal, A, Agrawal, S, Kiadaliri, A, Ahmadieh, H, Ahmed, MB, Aichour, MTE & KINFU, Y 2017, 'Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016', The Lancet, vol. 390, no. 10100, pp. 1423-1459. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries : an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. / AlemuAbajobir, Amanuel; Hassen Abate, Kalkidan; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Kaja; Abd-Allah, Foad; Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Rizwan; Abdulle, Abdishakur M; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Aboyans, Victor; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adetokunboh, Olatunji; Afshin, Ashkan; Agrawal, Anurag; Agrawal, Sutapa; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar; Ahmadieh, Hamid; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine; KINFU, Yohannes.

In: The Lancet, Vol. 390, No. 10100, 16.09.2017, p. 1423-1459.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries

T2 - an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

AU - AlemuAbajobir, Amanuel

AU - Hassen Abate, Kalkidan

AU - Abbafati, Cristiana

AU - Abbas, Kaja

AU - Abd-Allah, Foad

AU - Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Rizwan

AU - Abdulle, Abdishakur M

AU - Abera, Semaw Ferede

AU - Aboyans, Victor

AU - Abu-Raddad, Laith J.

AU - Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E

AU - Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi

AU - Adetokunboh, Olatunji

AU - Afshin, Ashkan

AU - Agrawal, Anurag

AU - Agrawal, Sutapa

AU - Kiadaliri, Aliasghar

AU - Ahmadieh, Hamid

AU - Ahmed, Muktar Beshir

AU - Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine

AU - KINFU, Yohannes

N1 - Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

PY - 2017/9/16

Y1 - 2017/9/16

N2 - Background: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.Methods: We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings: Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9–66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6–88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1–87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8–87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6–11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8–13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5–13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2–8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past

AB - Background: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.Methods: We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings: Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9–66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6–88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1–87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8–87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6–11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8–13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5–13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2–8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past

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KW - Adult

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KW - Female

KW - Global Burden of Disease/statistics & numerical data

KW - Global Health/statistics & numerical data

KW - Health Status

KW - Health Status Indicators

KW - Humans

KW - Infant

KW - Infant Mortality

KW - Infant, Newborn

KW - Male

KW - Middle Aged

KW - Noncommunicable Diseases/epidemiology

KW - Quality-Adjusted Life Years

KW - Sex Offenses/statistics & numerical data

KW - Young Adult

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JO - Lancet

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