Modeling anthropometric indices in relation to 10-year (2002–2012) incidence of cardiovascular disease, among apparently healthy individuals: The ATTICA study

Aims Body fat accumulation is implicated in the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Our objective was to explore potential associations between anthropometric indices and the 10-year CVD incidence in Greek adults without previous CVD. Methods During 2001–2, we enrolled 3042 adults without CVD from the general population of Attica, Greece. In 2011–2, the 10-year study follow-up was performed, recording the CVD incidence in 1958 participants with baseline body mass index (BMI) ≥18.5 kg/m². Results The study 10-year CVD incidence was 15.8%, exhibiting a gradual increase according to the baseline body mass index (BMI) category. Baseline BMI ≥30 kg/m² was related with significantly higher 10-year CVD risk compared to BMI <25 kg/m², even after adjustment for age and other known CVD risk factors. Baseline BMI, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, waist-to-height ratio and waist-to-hip-to-height ratio were independently associated with the 10-year CVD risk in multi-adjusted models. Gender-specific analyses showed that these associations were more evident in men compared to women, with baseline BMI exhibiting an independent association with the 10-year CVD incidence in men. Conclusions Our results indicate that even simple anthropometric indices exhibit independent associations with CVD risk in a representative sample of the Greek general population without previous CVD.