Modeling the effects of predator exclosures on a Western Snowy Plover population.

Christina Watts, Jing Cao, Christopher Panza, Christopher Dugaw, Mark Colwell, Elizabeth Burroughs

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In Humboldt County, California, nest exclosures were used between 2001 and 2006 to reduce the predation of eggs aiding in the recovery of a threatened population segment of western snowy plovers (Charadrius nivosus).
Due to a sudden increase in adult mortality in 2006, field
biologists abandoned the use of nest exclosures. This paper
describes a discrete-time stochastic model designed to compare two different management strategies (with and without exclosures) to predict the change in the plover population. The model uses beta distributions to model demographic parameters, and whenever possible, these distributions were fit to
survey data of these populations. The model shows nest exclosures to be effective in increasing chick fledging rates. However, the model also shows that an increase in adult mortality potentially caused by the nest exclosures would counteract this increase in fledging rates. The model predicts that there
will be a net negative effect on the population if these exclosures reduce adult survival to 90% of its unexclosed rate. The model also demonstrates that the population is dependent on immigration.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)529-547
Number of pages15
JournalNatural Resource Modeling
Volume25
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012
Externally publishedYes

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Predator
Nest
predator
Modeling
nest
modeling
fledging
Mortality
Model
Predict
Beta distribution
Immigration
Discrete-time Model
mortality
Stochastic models
Stochastic Model
effect
immigration
Recovery
predation

Cite this

Watts, Christina ; Cao, Jing ; Panza, Christopher ; Dugaw, Christopher ; Colwell, Mark ; Burroughs, Elizabeth. / Modeling the effects of predator exclosures on a Western Snowy Plover population. In: Natural Resource Modeling. 2012 ; Vol. 25, No. 3. pp. 529-547.
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abstract = "In Humboldt County, California, nest exclosures were used between 2001 and 2006 to reduce the predation of eggs aiding in the recovery of a threatened population segment of western snowy plovers (Charadrius nivosus).Due to a sudden increase in adult mortality in 2006, fieldbiologists abandoned the use of nest exclosures. This paperdescribes a discrete-time stochastic model designed to compare two different management strategies (with and without exclosures) to predict the change in the plover population. The model uses beta distributions to model demographic parameters, and whenever possible, these distributions were fit tosurvey data of these populations. The model shows nest exclosures to be effective in increasing chick fledging rates. However, the model also shows that an increase in adult mortality potentially caused by the nest exclosures would counteract this increase in fledging rates. The model predicts that therewill be a net negative effect on the population if these exclosures reduce adult survival to 90{\%} of its unexclosed rate. The model also demonstrates that the population is dependent on immigration.",
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Modeling the effects of predator exclosures on a Western Snowy Plover population. / Watts, Christina; Cao, Jing; Panza, Christopher; Dugaw, Christopher; Colwell, Mark; Burroughs, Elizabeth.

In: Natural Resource Modeling, Vol. 25, No. 3, 2012, p. 529-547.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AU - Cao, Jing

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