Abstract
| Original language | Undefined |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 2969-2975 |
| Number of pages | 7 |
| Journal | Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences |
| Volume | 273 |
| Issue number | 1604 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2006 |
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Modelling population persistence on islands: Mammal introductions in the New Zealand archipelago. / Duncan, R.P.; Forsyth, D.M.
In: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 273, No. 1604, 2006, p. 2969-2975.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
TY - JOUR
T1 - Modelling population persistence on islands: Mammal introductions in the New Zealand archipelago
AU - Duncan, R.P.
AU - Forsyth, D.M.
N1 - cited By 14
PY - 2006
Y1 - 2006
N2 - Islands are likely to differ in their susceptibility to colonization or invasion due to variation in factors that affect population persistence, including island area, climatic severity and habitat modification. We tested the importance of these factors in explaining the persistence of 164 introductions of six mammal species to 85 islands in the New Zealand archipelago using survival analysis and model selection techniques. As predicted by the theory of stochastic population growth, extinction risk was the greatest in the period immediately following introduction, declining rapidly to low probability by ca 25 years. This suggests that initially small populations were at greatest risk of extinction and that populations which survived for 25 years were likely to persist subsequently for much longer. Islands in the New Zealand archipelago become colder and windier with increasing latitude, and the probability of mammal populations persisting on islands declined steeply with increasing latitude. Hence, our results suggest that climatic suitability was an important determinant of the outcome of these invasions. The form of the relationship between latitude and persistence probability differed among species, emphasizing that the outcome of colonization attempts is species-environment specific.
AB - Islands are likely to differ in their susceptibility to colonization or invasion due to variation in factors that affect population persistence, including island area, climatic severity and habitat modification. We tested the importance of these factors in explaining the persistence of 164 introductions of six mammal species to 85 islands in the New Zealand archipelago using survival analysis and model selection techniques. As predicted by the theory of stochastic population growth, extinction risk was the greatest in the period immediately following introduction, declining rapidly to low probability by ca 25 years. This suggests that initially small populations were at greatest risk of extinction and that populations which survived for 25 years were likely to persist subsequently for much longer. Islands in the New Zealand archipelago become colder and windier with increasing latitude, and the probability of mammal populations persisting on islands declined steeply with increasing latitude. Hence, our results suggest that climatic suitability was an important determinant of the outcome of these invasions. The form of the relationship between latitude and persistence probability differed among species, emphasizing that the outcome of colonization attempts is species-environment specific.
U2 - 10.1098/rspb.2006.3662
DO - 10.1098/rspb.2006.3662
M3 - Article
VL - 273
SP - 2969
EP - 2975
JO - Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences
JF - Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences
SN - 0962-8452
IS - 1604
ER -