Modelling the impact of climate change on Pacific skipjack tuna population and fisheries

Patrick Lehodey, Inna Senina, Beatriz Calmettes, John Hampton, Simon Nicol

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

72 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

IPCC-type climate models have produced simulations of the oceanic environment that can be used to drive models of upper trophic levels to explore the impact of climate change on marine resources. We use the Spatial Ecosystem And Population Dynamics Model (SEAPODYM) to investigate the potential impact of Climate change under IPCC A2 scenario on Pacific skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis). IPCC-type models are still coarse in resolution and can produce significant anomalies, e.g., in water temperature. These limitations have direct and strong effects when modeling the dynamics of marine species. Therefore, parameter estimation experiments based on assimilation of historical fishing data are necessary to calibrate the model to these conditions before exploring the future scenarios. A new simulation based on corrected temperature fields of the A2 simulation from one climate model (IPSL-CM4) is presented. The corrected fields led to a new parameterization close to the one achieved with more realistic environment from an ocean reanalysis and satellite-derived primary production. Projected changes in skipjack population under simple fishing effort scenarios are presented. The skipjack catch and biomass is predicted to slightly increase in the Western Central Pacific Ocean until 2050 then the biomass stabilizes and starts to decrease after 2060 while the catch reaches a plateau. Both feeding and spawning habitat become progressively more favourable in the eastern Pacific Ocean and also extend to higher latitudes, while the western equatorial warm pool is predicted to become less favorable for skipjack spawning.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)95-109
Number of pages15
JournalClimatic Change
Volume119
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jul 2013
Externally publishedYes

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fishery
climate change
modeling
climate modeling
ocean
spawning
simulation
warm pool
ecosystem dynamics
fishing effort
marine resource
biomass
trophic level
primary production
parameterization
population dynamics
fishing
water temperature
plateau
anomaly

Cite this

Lehodey, Patrick ; Senina, Inna ; Calmettes, Beatriz ; Hampton, John ; Nicol, Simon. / Modelling the impact of climate change on Pacific skipjack tuna population and fisheries. In: Climatic Change. 2013 ; Vol. 119, No. 1. pp. 95-109.
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Lehodey, P, Senina, I, Calmettes, B, Hampton, J & Nicol, S 2013, 'Modelling the impact of climate change on Pacific skipjack tuna population and fisheries', Climatic Change, vol. 119, no. 1, pp. 95-109. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0595-1

Modelling the impact of climate change on Pacific skipjack tuna population and fisheries. / Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Calmettes, Beatriz; Hampton, John; Nicol, Simon.

In: Climatic Change, Vol. 119, No. 1, 01.07.2013, p. 95-109.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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