Non-uniform interhemispheric temperature trends over the past 550 years

Richard Duncan, Pavla Fenwick, Jonathan Palmer, Matt McGlone, Chris Turney

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    10 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    The warming trend over the last century in the northern hemisphere (NH) was interrupted by cooling from AD 1940 to 1975, a period during which the southern hemisphere experienced pronounced warming. The cause of these departures from steady warming at multidecadal timescales are unclear; the prevailing explanation is that they are driven by non-uniformity in external forcings but recent models suggest internal climate drivers may play a key role. Paleoclimate datasets can help provide a longterm perspective. Here we use tree-rings to reconstruct New Zealand mean annual temperature over the last 550 years and demonstrate that this has frequently cycled out-of-phase with NH mean annual temperature at a periodicity of around 30–60 years. Hence, observed multidecadal fluctuations around the recent warming trend have precedents in the past, strongly implicating natural limate variation as their cause. We consider the implications of these changes in understanding and modelling future climate change.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1429-1438
    Number of pages10
    JournalClimate Dynamics
    Volume35
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2010

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    warming
    Northern Hemisphere
    temperature
    tree ring
    paleoclimate
    periodicity
    Southern Hemisphere
    cooling
    timescale
    climate change
    trend
    climate
    modeling

    Cite this

    Duncan, Richard ; Fenwick, Pavla ; Palmer, Jonathan ; McGlone, Matt ; Turney, Chris. / Non-uniform interhemispheric temperature trends over the past 550 years. In: Climate Dynamics. 2010 ; Vol. 35. pp. 1429-1438.
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    abstract = "The warming trend over the last century in the northern hemisphere (NH) was interrupted by cooling from AD 1940 to 1975, a period during which the southern hemisphere experienced pronounced warming. The cause of these departures from steady warming at multidecadal timescales are unclear; the prevailing explanation is that they are driven by non-uniformity in external forcings but recent models suggest internal climate drivers may play a key role. Paleoclimate datasets can help provide a longterm perspective. Here we use tree-rings to reconstruct New Zealand mean annual temperature over the last 550 years and demonstrate that this has frequently cycled out-of-phase with NH mean annual temperature at a periodicity of around 30–60 years. Hence, observed multidecadal fluctuations around the recent warming trend have precedents in the past, strongly implicating natural limate variation as their cause. We consider the implications of these changes in understanding and modelling future climate change.",
    keywords = "New Zealand, Dendrochronology, Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Interhemispheric temperature variability, Multi-decadal temperature change.",
    author = "Richard Duncan and Pavla Fenwick and Jonathan Palmer and Matt McGlone and Chris Turney",
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    Non-uniform interhemispheric temperature trends over the past 550 years. / Duncan, Richard; Fenwick, Pavla; Palmer, Jonathan; McGlone, Matt; Turney, Chris.

    In: Climate Dynamics, Vol. 35, 2010, p. 1429-1438.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Non-uniform interhemispheric temperature trends over the past 550 years

    AU - Duncan, Richard

    AU - Fenwick, Pavla

    AU - Palmer, Jonathan

    AU - McGlone, Matt

    AU - Turney, Chris

    PY - 2010

    Y1 - 2010

    N2 - The warming trend over the last century in the northern hemisphere (NH) was interrupted by cooling from AD 1940 to 1975, a period during which the southern hemisphere experienced pronounced warming. The cause of these departures from steady warming at multidecadal timescales are unclear; the prevailing explanation is that they are driven by non-uniformity in external forcings but recent models suggest internal climate drivers may play a key role. Paleoclimate datasets can help provide a longterm perspective. Here we use tree-rings to reconstruct New Zealand mean annual temperature over the last 550 years and demonstrate that this has frequently cycled out-of-phase with NH mean annual temperature at a periodicity of around 30–60 years. Hence, observed multidecadal fluctuations around the recent warming trend have precedents in the past, strongly implicating natural limate variation as their cause. We consider the implications of these changes in understanding and modelling future climate change.

    AB - The warming trend over the last century in the northern hemisphere (NH) was interrupted by cooling from AD 1940 to 1975, a period during which the southern hemisphere experienced pronounced warming. The cause of these departures from steady warming at multidecadal timescales are unclear; the prevailing explanation is that they are driven by non-uniformity in external forcings but recent models suggest internal climate drivers may play a key role. Paleoclimate datasets can help provide a longterm perspective. Here we use tree-rings to reconstruct New Zealand mean annual temperature over the last 550 years and demonstrate that this has frequently cycled out-of-phase with NH mean annual temperature at a periodicity of around 30–60 years. Hence, observed multidecadal fluctuations around the recent warming trend have precedents in the past, strongly implicating natural limate variation as their cause. We consider the implications of these changes in understanding and modelling future climate change.

    KW - New Zealand

    KW - Dendrochronology

    KW - Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

    KW - Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

    KW - Interhemispheric temperature variability

    KW - Multi-decadal temperature change.

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