Phylogenetic approaches reveal biodiversity threats under climate change

Carlos GONZALEZ-OROZCO, Laura Pollock, Andrew Thornhill, Brent Mishler, Nunzio Knerr, Shawn Laffan, Joseph Miller, Dan Rosauer, Daniel Faith, David Nipperess, Heini Kujala, Simon Linke, Nathalie Butt, Carsten Külheim, Michael Crisp, Bernd GRUBER

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    55 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Predicting the consequences of climate change for biodiversity is critical to conservation efforts. Extensive range losses have been predicted for thousands of individual species, but less is known about how climate change might impact whole clades and landscape-scale patterns of biodiversity. Here, we show that climate change scenarios imply significant changes in phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism at a continental scale in Australia using the hyper-diverse clade of eucalypts. We predict that within the next 60 years the vast majority of species distributions (91%) across Australia will shrink in size (on average by 51%) and shift south on the basis of projected suitable climatic space. Geographic areas currently with high phylogenetic diversity and endemism are predicted to change substantially in future climate scenarios. Approximately 90% of the current areas with concentrations of palaeo-endemism (that is, places with old evolutionary diversity) are predicted to disappear or shift their location. These findings show that climate change threatens whole clades of the phylogenetic tree, and that the outlined approach can be used to forecast areas of biodiversity losses and continental-scale impacts of climate change.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1110-1114
    Number of pages5
    JournalNature Climate Change
    Volume6
    Issue number12
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2016

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    biodiversity
    climate change
    threat
    phylogenetics
    endemism
    scenario
    conservation
    climate
    loss

    Cite this

    GONZALEZ-OROZCO, C., Pollock, L., Thornhill, A., Mishler, B., Knerr, N., Laffan, S., ... GRUBER, B. (2016). Phylogenetic approaches reveal biodiversity threats under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 6(12), 1110-1114. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3126
    GONZALEZ-OROZCO, Carlos ; Pollock, Laura ; Thornhill, Andrew ; Mishler, Brent ; Knerr, Nunzio ; Laffan, Shawn ; Miller, Joseph ; Rosauer, Dan ; Faith, Daniel ; Nipperess, David ; Kujala, Heini ; Linke, Simon ; Butt, Nathalie ; Külheim, Carsten ; Crisp, Michael ; GRUBER, Bernd. / Phylogenetic approaches reveal biodiversity threats under climate change. In: Nature Climate Change. 2016 ; Vol. 6, No. 12. pp. 1110-1114.
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    title = "Phylogenetic approaches reveal biodiversity threats under climate change",
    abstract = "Predicting the consequences of climate change for biodiversity is critical to conservation efforts. Extensive range losses have been predicted for thousands of individual species, but less is known about how climate change might impact whole clades and landscape-scale patterns of biodiversity. Here, we show that climate change scenarios imply significant changes in phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism at a continental scale in Australia using the hyper-diverse clade of eucalypts. We predict that within the next 60 years the vast majority of species distributions (91{\%}) across Australia will shrink in size (on average by 51{\%}) and shift south on the basis of projected suitable climatic space. Geographic areas currently with high phylogenetic diversity and endemism are predicted to change substantially in future climate scenarios. Approximately 90{\%} of the current areas with concentrations of palaeo-endemism (that is, places with old evolutionary diversity) are predicted to disappear or shift their location. These findings show that climate change threatens whole clades of the phylogenetic tree, and that the outlined approach can be used to forecast areas of biodiversity losses and continental-scale impacts of climate change.",
    author = "Carlos GONZALEZ-OROZCO and Laura Pollock and Andrew Thornhill and Brent Mishler and Nunzio Knerr and Shawn Laffan and Joseph Miller and Dan Rosauer and Daniel Faith and David Nipperess and Heini Kujala and Simon Linke and Nathalie Butt and Carsten K{\"u}lheim and Michael Crisp and Bernd GRUBER",
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    GONZALEZ-OROZCO, C, Pollock, L, Thornhill, A, Mishler, B, Knerr, N, Laffan, S, Miller, J, Rosauer, D, Faith, D, Nipperess, D, Kujala, H, Linke, S, Butt, N, Külheim, C, Crisp, M & GRUBER, B 2016, 'Phylogenetic approaches reveal biodiversity threats under climate change', Nature Climate Change, vol. 6, no. 12, pp. 1110-1114. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3126

    Phylogenetic approaches reveal biodiversity threats under climate change. / GONZALEZ-OROZCO, Carlos; Pollock, Laura; Thornhill, Andrew; Mishler, Brent; Knerr, Nunzio; Laffan, Shawn; Miller, Joseph; Rosauer, Dan; Faith, Daniel; Nipperess, David; Kujala, Heini; Linke, Simon; Butt, Nathalie; Külheim, Carsten; Crisp, Michael; GRUBER, Bernd.

    In: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, No. 12, 2016, p. 1110-1114.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Phylogenetic approaches reveal biodiversity threats under climate change

    AU - GONZALEZ-OROZCO, Carlos

    AU - Pollock, Laura

    AU - Thornhill, Andrew

    AU - Mishler, Brent

    AU - Knerr, Nunzio

    AU - Laffan, Shawn

    AU - Miller, Joseph

    AU - Rosauer, Dan

    AU - Faith, Daniel

    AU - Nipperess, David

    AU - Kujala, Heini

    AU - Linke, Simon

    AU - Butt, Nathalie

    AU - Külheim, Carsten

    AU - Crisp, Michael

    AU - GRUBER, Bernd

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    AB - Predicting the consequences of climate change for biodiversity is critical to conservation efforts. Extensive range losses have been predicted for thousands of individual species, but less is known about how climate change might impact whole clades and landscape-scale patterns of biodiversity. Here, we show that climate change scenarios imply significant changes in phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism at a continental scale in Australia using the hyper-diverse clade of eucalypts. We predict that within the next 60 years the vast majority of species distributions (91%) across Australia will shrink in size (on average by 51%) and shift south on the basis of projected suitable climatic space. Geographic areas currently with high phylogenetic diversity and endemism are predicted to change substantially in future climate scenarios. Approximately 90% of the current areas with concentrations of palaeo-endemism (that is, places with old evolutionary diversity) are predicted to disappear or shift their location. These findings show that climate change threatens whole clades of the phylogenetic tree, and that the outlined approach can be used to forecast areas of biodiversity losses and continental-scale impacts of climate change.

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    DO - 10.1038/nclimate3126

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    GONZALEZ-OROZCO C, Pollock L, Thornhill A, Mishler B, Knerr N, Laffan S et al. Phylogenetic approaches reveal biodiversity threats under climate change. Nature Climate Change. 2016;6(12):1110-1114. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3126