Plant traits and extinction in urban areas: a meta-analysis of 11 cities

Richard Duncan, Steven Clemants, Richard Corlett, Amy Hahs, Michael McCarthy, Mark McDonnell, Mark Schwartz, Ken Thompson, Peter Vesk, Nicholas Williams

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    63 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Aim Urban environments around the world share many features in common, including the local extinction of native plant species.We tested the hypothesis that similarity in environmental conditions among urban areas should select for plant species with a particular suite of traits suited to those conditions, and lead to the selective extinction of species lacking those traits. Location Eleven cities with data on the plant species that persisted and those that went locally extinct within at least the last 100 years following urbanization. Methods We compiled data on 11 plant traits for 8269 native species in the 11 cities and used hierarchical logistic regression models to identify the degree to which traits could distinguish species that persisted from those that went locally extinct in each city. The trait effects from each city were then combined in a meta-analysis. Results The cities fell into two groups: those with relatively low rates of extinction (less than 0.05% species per year – Adelaide, Hong Kong, Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco), for which no traits reliably predicted the pattern of extinction, and those with higher rates of extinction (> 0.08% species per year – Auckland, Chicago, Melbourne, New York, Singapore and Worcester, MA), where shortstatured, small-seeded plants were more likely to go extinct. Main conclusions Our analysis reveals patterns in trait selectivity consistent with local studies, suggesting some consistency in trait selection by urbanization. Overall, however, few traits reliably predicted the pattern of plant extinction across cities, making it difficult to identify a priori the extinction-prone species most likely to be affected by urban expansion.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)509-519
    Number of pages11
    JournalGlobal Ecology and Biogeography
    Volume20
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2011

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    meta-analysis
    urban areas
    extinction
    urban area
    urbanization
    local extinction
    Singapore
    native species
    city
    logistics
    environmental conditions
    indigenous species
    environmental factors
    China
    plant species

    Cite this

    Duncan, R., Clemants, S., Corlett, R., Hahs, A., McCarthy, M., McDonnell, M., ... Williams, N. (2011). Plant traits and extinction in urban areas: a meta-analysis of 11 cities. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 20, 509-519. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00633.x
    Duncan, Richard ; Clemants, Steven ; Corlett, Richard ; Hahs, Amy ; McCarthy, Michael ; McDonnell, Mark ; Schwartz, Mark ; Thompson, Ken ; Vesk, Peter ; Williams, Nicholas. / Plant traits and extinction in urban areas: a meta-analysis of 11 cities. In: Global Ecology and Biogeography. 2011 ; Vol. 20. pp. 509-519.
    @article{4070fdfefdac49d28069791a3a8c2fa1,
    title = "Plant traits and extinction in urban areas: a meta-analysis of 11 cities",
    abstract = "Aim Urban environments around the world share many features in common, including the local extinction of native plant species.We tested the hypothesis that similarity in environmental conditions among urban areas should select for plant species with a particular suite of traits suited to those conditions, and lead to the selective extinction of species lacking those traits. Location Eleven cities with data on the plant species that persisted and those that went locally extinct within at least the last 100 years following urbanization. Methods We compiled data on 11 plant traits for 8269 native species in the 11 cities and used hierarchical logistic regression models to identify the degree to which traits could distinguish species that persisted from those that went locally extinct in each city. The trait effects from each city were then combined in a meta-analysis. Results The cities fell into two groups: those with relatively low rates of extinction (less than 0.05{\%} species per year – Adelaide, Hong Kong, Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco), for which no traits reliably predicted the pattern of extinction, and those with higher rates of extinction (> 0.08{\%} species per year – Auckland, Chicago, Melbourne, New York, Singapore and Worcester, MA), where shortstatured, small-seeded plants were more likely to go extinct. Main conclusions Our analysis reveals patterns in trait selectivity consistent with local studies, suggesting some consistency in trait selection by urbanization. Overall, however, few traits reliably predicted the pattern of plant extinction across cities, making it difficult to identify a priori the extinction-prone species most likely to be affected by urban expansion.",
    keywords = "Bayesian hierarchical models, extinction, global change, meta-analysis, plant traits, species persistence, trait selection, urbanization.",
    author = "Richard Duncan and Steven Clemants and Richard Corlett and Amy Hahs and Michael McCarthy and Mark McDonnell and Mark Schwartz and Ken Thompson and Peter Vesk and Nicholas Williams",
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    Duncan, R, Clemants, S, Corlett, R, Hahs, A, McCarthy, M, McDonnell, M, Schwartz, M, Thompson, K, Vesk, P & Williams, N 2011, 'Plant traits and extinction in urban areas: a meta-analysis of 11 cities', Global Ecology and Biogeography, vol. 20, pp. 509-519. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00633.x

    Plant traits and extinction in urban areas: a meta-analysis of 11 cities. / Duncan, Richard; Clemants, Steven; Corlett, Richard; Hahs, Amy; McCarthy, Michael; McDonnell, Mark; Schwartz, Mark; Thompson, Ken; Vesk, Peter; Williams, Nicholas.

    In: Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 20, 2011, p. 509-519.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Plant traits and extinction in urban areas: a meta-analysis of 11 cities

    AU - Duncan, Richard

    AU - Clemants, Steven

    AU - Corlett, Richard

    AU - Hahs, Amy

    AU - McCarthy, Michael

    AU - McDonnell, Mark

    AU - Schwartz, Mark

    AU - Thompson, Ken

    AU - Vesk, Peter

    AU - Williams, Nicholas

    PY - 2011

    Y1 - 2011

    N2 - Aim Urban environments around the world share many features in common, including the local extinction of native plant species.We tested the hypothesis that similarity in environmental conditions among urban areas should select for plant species with a particular suite of traits suited to those conditions, and lead to the selective extinction of species lacking those traits. Location Eleven cities with data on the plant species that persisted and those that went locally extinct within at least the last 100 years following urbanization. Methods We compiled data on 11 plant traits for 8269 native species in the 11 cities and used hierarchical logistic regression models to identify the degree to which traits could distinguish species that persisted from those that went locally extinct in each city. The trait effects from each city were then combined in a meta-analysis. Results The cities fell into two groups: those with relatively low rates of extinction (less than 0.05% species per year – Adelaide, Hong Kong, Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco), for which no traits reliably predicted the pattern of extinction, and those with higher rates of extinction (> 0.08% species per year – Auckland, Chicago, Melbourne, New York, Singapore and Worcester, MA), where shortstatured, small-seeded plants were more likely to go extinct. Main conclusions Our analysis reveals patterns in trait selectivity consistent with local studies, suggesting some consistency in trait selection by urbanization. Overall, however, few traits reliably predicted the pattern of plant extinction across cities, making it difficult to identify a priori the extinction-prone species most likely to be affected by urban expansion.

    AB - Aim Urban environments around the world share many features in common, including the local extinction of native plant species.We tested the hypothesis that similarity in environmental conditions among urban areas should select for plant species with a particular suite of traits suited to those conditions, and lead to the selective extinction of species lacking those traits. Location Eleven cities with data on the plant species that persisted and those that went locally extinct within at least the last 100 years following urbanization. Methods We compiled data on 11 plant traits for 8269 native species in the 11 cities and used hierarchical logistic regression models to identify the degree to which traits could distinguish species that persisted from those that went locally extinct in each city. The trait effects from each city were then combined in a meta-analysis. Results The cities fell into two groups: those with relatively low rates of extinction (less than 0.05% species per year – Adelaide, Hong Kong, Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco), for which no traits reliably predicted the pattern of extinction, and those with higher rates of extinction (> 0.08% species per year – Auckland, Chicago, Melbourne, New York, Singapore and Worcester, MA), where shortstatured, small-seeded plants were more likely to go extinct. Main conclusions Our analysis reveals patterns in trait selectivity consistent with local studies, suggesting some consistency in trait selection by urbanization. Overall, however, few traits reliably predicted the pattern of plant extinction across cities, making it difficult to identify a priori the extinction-prone species most likely to be affected by urban expansion.

    KW - Bayesian hierarchical models

    KW - extinction

    KW - global change

    KW - meta-analysis

    KW - plant traits

    KW - species persistence

    KW - trait selection

    KW - urbanization.

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    M3 - Article

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    JO - Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters

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