Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017

a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

GBD 2017 Population and Fertility Collaborators, Kerrie E. Doyle, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Yohannes Kinfu, John J. McGrath, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Mark A. Stokes

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

24 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1995-2051
Number of pages57
JournalThe Lancet
Volume392
Issue number10159
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018

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Fertility
Population
Population Growth
Niger
Age Groups
Demography
Africa South of the Sahara
Mortality
Global Burden of Disease
Uncertainty
Reproductive History
Birth Rate
Censuses
Chad
Oceania
Cyprus
Mali
Puerto Rico
Eastern Europe
Southeastern Asia

Cite this

GBD 2017 Population and Fertility Collaborators, Doyle, K. E., Islam, S. M. S., Kinfu, Y., McGrath, J. J., Rahman, M. H. U., & Stokes, M. A. (2018). Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The Lancet, 392(10159), 1995-2051. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32278-5
GBD 2017 Population and Fertility Collaborators ; Doyle, Kerrie E. ; Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful ; Kinfu, Yohannes ; McGrath, John J. ; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur ; Stokes, Mark A. / Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. In: The Lancet. 2018 ; Vol. 392, No. 10159. pp. 1995-2051.
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title = "Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017",
abstract = "Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4{\%} (95{\%} uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2{\%} (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0{\%}; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1{\%} in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5{\%} in 1963 to 0·7{\%} in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7{\%}. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9{\%} to 65·3{\%}. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95{\%} UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0{\%} were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65{\%} of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50{\%} of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.",
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{Ars{\`e}ne Kouablan} and Adsuar, {Jose C.} and Mohsen Afarideh and Ashkan Afshin and Gina Agarwal and Agesa, {Kareha M.} and Aghayan, {Sargis Aghasi} and Sutapa Agrawal and Alireza Ahmadi and Mehdi Ahmadi and Ahmed, {Muktar Beshir} and Sayem Ahmed and Aichour, {Amani Nidhal} and Ibtihel Aichour and Aichour, {Miloud Taki Eddine} and Akanda, {Ali S.} and Akbari, {Mohammad Esmaeil} and Mohammed Akibu and Akinyemi, {Rufus Olusola} and Tomi Akinyemiju and Nadia Akseer and Fares Alahdab and Ziyad Al-Aly and Khurshid Alam and Animut Alebel and Aleman, {Alicia V.} and Alene, {Kefyalew Addis} and Ayman Al-Eyadhy and Raghib Ali and Mehran Alijanzadeh and Reza Alizadeh-Navaei and Aljunid, {Syed Mohamed} and Ala'a Alkerwi and Fran{\cc}ois Alla and Peter Allebeck and Ali Almasi and Jordi Alonso and Al-Raddadi, {Rajaa M.} and Ubai Alsharif and Khalid Altirkawi and Nelson Alvis-Guzman and Amare, {Azmeraw T.} and Walid Ammar and Anber, {Nahla Hamed} and Andrei, {Catalina Liliana} and Sofia Androudi and Animut, {Megbaru Debalkie} and Hossein Ansari and Ansha, {Mustafa Geleto} and Antonio, {Carl Abelardo T.} and Appiah, {Seth Christopher Yaw} and Olatunde Aremu and Areri, {Habtamu Abera} and Nicholas Arian and Johan {\"A}rnl{\"o}v and Al Artaman and Aryal, {Krishna K.} and Hamid Asayesh and Asfaw, {Ephrem Tsegay} and Asgedom, {Solomon Weldegebreal} and Reza Assadi and Atey, {Tesfay Mehari Mehari} and Suleman Atique and Atteraya, {Madhu Sudhan} and Marcel Ausloos and Avokpaho, {Euripide F.G.A.} and Ashish Awasthi and {Ayala Quintanilla}, {Beatriz Paulina} and Yohanes Ayele and Rakesh Ayer and Ayuk, {Tambe B.} and Azzopardi, {Peter S.} and Babalola, {Tesleem Kayode} and Arefeh Babazadeh and Hamid Badali and Alaa Badawi and Bali, {Ayele Geleto} and Maciej Banach and Barker-Collo, {Suzanne Lyn} and B{\"a}rnighausen, {Till Winfried} and Barrero, {Lope H.} and Huda Basaleem and Quique Bassat and Arindam Basu and Baune, {Bernhard T.} and Baynes, {Habtamu Wondifraw} and Ettore Beghi and Masoud Behzadifar and Meysam Behzadifar and Bekele, {Bayu Begashaw} and Belachew, {Abate Bekele} and Belay, {Aregawi Gebreyesus} and Ezra Belay and Belay, {Saba Abraham} and Belay, {Yihalem Abebe} and Bell, {Michelle L.} and Bello, {Aminu K.} and Bennett, {Derrick A.} and Bensenor, {Isabela M.} and Gilles Bergeron and Adugnaw Berhane and Berman, {Adam E.} and Eduardo Bernabe and Bernstein, {Robert S.} and Bertolacci, {Gregory J.} and Mircea Beuran and Suraj Bhattarai and Soumyadeep Bhaumik and Bhutta, {Zulfiqar A.} and Belete Biadgo and Ali Bijani and Boris Bikbov and Nigus Bililign and {Bin Sayeed}, {Muhammad Shahdaat} and Birlik, {Sait Mentes} and Charles Birungi and Tuhin Biswas and Hailemichael Bizuneh and Archie Bleyer and Basara, {Berrak Bora} and Cristina Bosetti and Soufiane Boufous and Brady, {Oliver J.} and Bragazzi, {Nicola Luigi} and Michael Brainin and Alexandra Brazinova and Breitborde, {Nicholas J.K.} and Hermann Brenner and Brewer, {Jerry D.} and Briant, {Paul Svitil} and Gabrielle Britton and Roy Burstein and Reinhard Busse and Butt, {Zahid A.} and Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado and Campos-Nonato, {Ismael R.} and {Campuzano Rincon}, {Julio Cesar} and Jorge Cano and Mate Car and Rosario C{\'a}rdenas and Carrero, {Juan J.} and F{\'e}lix Carvalho and Casta{\~n}eda-Orjuela, {Carlos A.} and {Castillo Rivas}, Jacqueline and Franz Castro and Ferr{\'a}n Catal{\'a}-L{\'o}pez and Alanur {\cC}avlin and Ester Cerin and Julian Chalek and Chang, {Hsing Yi} and Chang, {Jung Chen} and Aparajita Chattopadhyay and Pankaj Chaturvedi and Chiang, {Peggy Pei Chia} and Chin, {Ken Lee} and Chisumpa, {Vesper Hichilombwe} and Abdulaal Chitheer and Choi, {Jee Young J.} and Rajiv Chowdhury and Christopher, {Devasahayam J.} and Cicuttini, {Flavia M.} and Ciobanu, {Liliana G.} and Massimo Cirillo and Claro, {Rafael M.} and Daniel Collado-Mateo and Constantin, {Maria Magdalena} and Sara Conti and Cyrus Cooper and Cooper, {Leslie Trumbull} and Leslie Cornaby and Cortesi, {Paolo Angelo} and Monica Cortinovis and Megan Costa and Elizabeth Cromwell and Crowe, {Christopher Stephen} and Petra Cukelj and Matthew Cunningham and Daba, {Alemneh Kabeta} and Dachew, {Berihun Assefa} and Lalit Dandona and Rakhi Dandona and Dargan, {Paul I.} and Ahmad Daryani and {Das Gupta}, Rajat and {Das Neves}, Jos{\'e} and Dasa, {Tamirat Tesfaye} and Dash, {Aditya Prasad} and Weaver, {Nicole Davis} and Davitoiu, {Dragos Virgil} and Kairat Davletov and {De Leo}, Diego and {De Neve}, {Jan Walter} and Degefa, {Meaza Girma} and Louisa Degenhardt and Degfie, {Tizta Tilahun} and Selina Deiparine and Demoz, {Gebre Teklemariam} and Balem Demtsu and Edgar Denova-Guti{\'e}rrez and Kebede Deribe and Nikolaos Dervenis and {Des Jarlais}, {Don C.} and Dessie, {Getenet Ayalew} and Dharmaratne, {Samath D.} and Meghnath Dhimal and Daniel Dicker and Ding, {Eric L.} and Doyle, {Kerrie E.} and Islam, {Sheikh Mohammed Shariful} and Yohannes Kinfu and McGrath, {John J.} and Rahman, {Mohammad Hifz Ur} and Stokes, {Mark A.}",
year = "2018",
doi = "10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32278-5",
language = "English",
volume = "392",
pages = "1995--2051",
journal = "Lancet",
issn = "0140-6736",
publisher = "Elsevier Limited",
number = "10159",

}

GBD 2017 Population and Fertility Collaborators, Doyle, KE, Islam, SMS, Kinfu, Y, McGrath, JJ, Rahman, MHU & Stokes, MA 2018, 'Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017', The Lancet, vol. 392, no. 10159, pp. 1995-2051. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32278-5

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. / GBD 2017 Population and Fertility Collaborators; Doyle, Kerrie E.; Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful; Kinfu, Yohannes; McGrath, John J.; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur; Stokes, Mark A.

In: The Lancet, Vol. 392, No. 10159, 2018, p. 1995-2051.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017

T2 - a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

AU - GBD 2017 Population and Fertility Collaborators

AU - Murray, Christopher J.L.

AU - Callender, Charlton S.K.H.

AU - Kulikoff, Xie Rachel

AU - Srinivasan, Vinay

AU - Abate, Degu

AU - Abate, Kalkidan Hassen

AU - Abay, Solomon M.

AU - Abbasi, Nooshin

AU - Abbastabar, Hedayat

AU - Abdela, Jemal

AU - Abdelalim, Ahmed

AU - Abdel-Rahman, Omar

AU - Abdi, Alireza

AU - Abdoli, Nasrin

AU - Abdollahpour, Ibrahim

AU - Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi

AU - Abebe, Haftom Temesgen

AU - Abebe, Molla

AU - Abebe, Zegeye

AU - Abebo, Teshome Abuka

AU - Abejie, Ayenew Negesse

AU - Aboyans, Victor

AU - Abraha, Haftom Niguse

AU - Abreu, Daisy Maria Xavier

AU - Abrham, Aklilu Roba

AU - Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal

AU - Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E.

AU - Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou

AU - Acharya, Pawan

AU - Adamu, Abdu A.

AU - Adebayo, Oladimeji M.

AU - Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi

AU - Adekanmbi, Victor

AU - Adetokunboh, Olatunji O.

AU - Adhena, Beyene Meressa

AU - Adhikari, Tara Ballav

AU - Adib, Mina G.

AU - Adou, Arsène Kouablan

AU - Adsuar, Jose C.

AU - Afarideh, Mohsen

AU - Afshin, Ashkan

AU - Agarwal, Gina

AU - Agesa, Kareha M.

AU - Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi

AU - Agrawal, Sutapa

AU - Ahmadi, Alireza

AU - Ahmadi, Mehdi

AU - Ahmed, Muktar Beshir

AU - Ahmed, Sayem

AU - Aichour, Amani Nidhal

AU - Aichour, Ibtihel

AU - Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine

AU - Akanda, Ali S.

AU - Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil

AU - Akibu, Mohammed

AU - Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola

AU - Akinyemiju, Tomi

AU - Akseer, Nadia

AU - Alahdab, Fares

AU - Al-Aly, Ziyad

AU - Alam, Khurshid

AU - Alebel, Animut

AU - Aleman, Alicia V.

AU - Alene, Kefyalew Addis

AU - Al-Eyadhy, Ayman

AU - Ali, Raghib

AU - Alijanzadeh, Mehran

AU - Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza

AU - Aljunid, Syed Mohamed

AU - Alkerwi, Ala'a

AU - Alla, François

AU - Allebeck, Peter

AU - Almasi, Ali

AU - Alonso, Jordi

AU - Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M.

AU - Alsharif, Ubai

AU - Altirkawi, Khalid

AU - Alvis-Guzman, Nelson

AU - Amare, Azmeraw T.

AU - Ammar, Walid

AU - Anber, Nahla Hamed

AU - Andrei, Catalina Liliana

AU - Androudi, Sofia

AU - Animut, Megbaru Debalkie

AU - Ansari, Hossein

AU - Ansha, Mustafa Geleto

AU - Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.

AU - Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw

AU - Aremu, Olatunde

AU - Areri, Habtamu Abera

AU - Arian, Nicholas

AU - Ärnlöv, Johan

AU - Artaman, Al

AU - Aryal, Krishna K.

AU - Asayesh, Hamid

AU - Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay

AU - Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal

AU - Assadi, Reza

AU - Atey, Tesfay Mehari Mehari

AU - Atique, Suleman

AU - Atteraya, Madhu Sudhan

AU - Ausloos, Marcel

AU - Avokpaho, Euripide F.G.A.

AU - Awasthi, Ashish

AU - Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina

AU - Ayele, Yohanes

AU - Ayer, Rakesh

AU - Ayuk, Tambe B.

AU - Azzopardi, Peter S.

AU - Babalola, Tesleem Kayode

AU - Babazadeh, Arefeh

AU - Badali, Hamid

AU - Badawi, Alaa

AU - Bali, Ayele Geleto

AU - Banach, Maciej

AU - Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn

AU - Bärnighausen, Till Winfried

AU - Barrero, Lope H.

AU - Basaleem, Huda

AU - Bassat, Quique

AU - Basu, Arindam

AU - Baune, Bernhard T.

AU - Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw

AU - Beghi, Ettore

AU - Behzadifar, Masoud

AU - Behzadifar, Meysam

AU - Bekele, Bayu Begashaw

AU - Belachew, Abate Bekele

AU - Belay, Aregawi Gebreyesus

AU - Belay, Ezra

AU - Belay, Saba Abraham

AU - Belay, Yihalem Abebe

AU - Bell, Michelle L.

AU - Bello, Aminu K.

AU - Bennett, Derrick A.

AU - Bensenor, Isabela M.

AU - Bergeron, Gilles

AU - Berhane, Adugnaw

AU - Berman, Adam E.

AU - Bernabe, Eduardo

AU - Bernstein, Robert S.

AU - Bertolacci, Gregory J.

AU - Beuran, Mircea

AU - Bhattarai, Suraj

AU - Bhaumik, Soumyadeep

AU - Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.

AU - Biadgo, Belete

AU - Bijani, Ali

AU - Bikbov, Boris

AU - Bililign, Nigus

AU - Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat

AU - Birlik, Sait Mentes

AU - Birungi, Charles

AU - Biswas, Tuhin

AU - Bizuneh, Hailemichael

AU - Bleyer, Archie

AU - Basara, Berrak Bora

AU - Bosetti, Cristina

AU - Boufous, Soufiane

AU - Brady, Oliver J.

AU - Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi

AU - Brainin, Michael

AU - Brazinova, Alexandra

AU - Breitborde, Nicholas J.K.

AU - Brenner, Hermann

AU - Brewer, Jerry D.

AU - Briant, Paul Svitil

AU - Britton, Gabrielle

AU - Burstein, Roy

AU - Busse, Reinhard

AU - Butt, Zahid A.

AU - Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero

AU - Campos-Nonato, Ismael R.

AU - Campuzano Rincon, Julio Cesar

AU - Cano, Jorge

AU - Car, Mate

AU - Cárdenas, Rosario

AU - Carrero, Juan J.

AU - Carvalho, Félix

AU - Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A.

AU - Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline

AU - Castro, Franz

AU - Catalá-López, Ferrán

AU - Çavlin, Alanur

AU - Cerin, Ester

AU - Chalek, Julian

AU - Chang, Hsing Yi

AU - Chang, Jung Chen

AU - Chattopadhyay, Aparajita

AU - Chaturvedi, Pankaj

AU - Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia

AU - Chin, Ken Lee

AU - Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe

AU - Chitheer, Abdulaal

AU - Choi, Jee Young J.

AU - Chowdhury, Rajiv

AU - Christopher, Devasahayam J.

AU - Cicuttini, Flavia M.

AU - Ciobanu, Liliana G.

AU - Cirillo, Massimo

AU - Claro, Rafael M.

AU - Collado-Mateo, Daniel

AU - Constantin, Maria Magdalena

AU - Conti, Sara

AU - Cooper, Cyrus

AU - Cooper, Leslie Trumbull

AU - Cornaby, Leslie

AU - Cortesi, Paolo Angelo

AU - Cortinovis, Monica

AU - Costa, Megan

AU - Cromwell, Elizabeth

AU - Crowe, Christopher Stephen

AU - Cukelj, Petra

AU - Cunningham, Matthew

AU - Daba, Alemneh Kabeta

AU - Dachew, Berihun Assefa

AU - Dandona, Lalit

AU - Dandona, Rakhi

AU - Dargan, Paul I.

AU - Daryani, Ahmad

AU - Das Gupta, Rajat

AU - Das Neves, José

AU - Dasa, Tamirat Tesfaye

AU - Dash, Aditya Prasad

AU - Weaver, Nicole Davis

AU - Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil

AU - Davletov, Kairat

AU - De Leo, Diego

AU - De Neve, Jan Walter

AU - Degefa, Meaza Girma

AU - Degenhardt, Louisa

AU - Degfie, Tizta Tilahun

AU - Deiparine, Selina

AU - Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam

AU - Demtsu, Balem

AU - Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar

AU - Deribe, Kebede

AU - Dervenis, Nikolaos

AU - Des Jarlais, Don C.

AU - Dessie, Getenet Ayalew

AU - Dharmaratne, Samath D.

AU - Dhimal, Meghnath

AU - Dicker, Daniel

AU - Ding, Eric L.

AU - Doyle, Kerrie E.

AU - Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful

AU - Kinfu, Yohannes

AU - McGrath, John J.

AU - Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur

AU - Stokes, Mark A.

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

AB - Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

KW - Adolescent

KW - Adult

KW - Aged

KW - Birth Rate

KW - Child

KW - Child, Preschool

KW - Female

KW - Global Burden of Disease/statistics & numerical data

KW - Global Health/statistics & numerical data

KW - Humans

KW - Infant

KW - Infant, Newborn

KW - Male

KW - Maternal Age

KW - Middle Aged

KW - Mortality

KW - Population Density

KW - Population Growth

KW - Young Adult

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85056166986&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32278-5

DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32278-5

M3 - Article

VL - 392

SP - 1995

EP - 2051

JO - Lancet

JF - Lancet

SN - 0140-6736

IS - 10159

ER -