Pre-emptive conservation versus "fire-fighting": A decision theoretic approach

Daniel A. Spring, Oscar Cacho, R. Mac Nally, Regis Sabbadin

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    20 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    How can conservation planners optimally and effectively allocate limited resources between imminently threatened and presently secure areas? Such choices must be made at multiple spatial scales involving a variety of conservation targets. Allocation strategies range from a “fire-fighting” approach, which gives priority to heavily developed areas at high risk of further habitat loss, to a “pre-emptive” approach giving priority to intact habitat tracts before they become threatened. We determined optimal dynamic reserve selection strategies when selections are made in imminently threatened and presently secure areas that will become threatened at uncertain times in the future. The objective was to maximize the expected number of endemic species conserved, predicted with species–area curves. The model was solved for three forms of species–area curve proposed in theoretical studies of habitat loss. Alternative scenarios were considered on the relationship between land prices and development risk. For the most commonly proposed form of the species–area relationship, the fire-fighting approach is optimal even if land prices rise substantially when presently secure areas become threatened. This reflects the assumption that species decline accelerates only after a large proportion of original habitat has been lost. The possibility of large species losses at lower levels of habitat loss justifies at least some pre-emptive conservation, even if land prices are not correlated with threat. If species decline is proportional with habitat loss, the optimal conservation strategy depends strongly on land price dynamics.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)531-540
    Number of pages10
    JournalBiological Conservation
    Volume136
    Issue number4
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2007

    Fingerprint

    fire fighting
    land values
    habitat loss
    fighting
    habitat destruction
    price dynamics
    habitat
    habitats
    theoretical study
    endemic species
    indigenous species
    land use
    decision
    land
    resource
    price

    Cite this

    Spring, Daniel A. ; Cacho, Oscar ; Mac Nally, R. ; Sabbadin, Regis. / Pre-emptive conservation versus "fire-fighting": A decision theoretic approach. In: Biological Conservation. 2007 ; Vol. 136, No. 4. pp. 531-540.
    @article{dc25ea6893114f54b8a4b4d5e77fde1d,
    title = "Pre-emptive conservation versus {"}fire-fighting{"}: A decision theoretic approach",
    abstract = "How can conservation planners optimally and effectively allocate limited resources between imminently threatened and presently secure areas? Such choices must be made at multiple spatial scales involving a variety of conservation targets. Allocation strategies range from a “fire-fighting” approach, which gives priority to heavily developed areas at high risk of further habitat loss, to a “pre-emptive” approach giving priority to intact habitat tracts before they become threatened. We determined optimal dynamic reserve selection strategies when selections are made in imminently threatened and presently secure areas that will become threatened at uncertain times in the future. The objective was to maximize the expected number of endemic species conserved, predicted with species–area curves. The model was solved for three forms of species–area curve proposed in theoretical studies of habitat loss. Alternative scenarios were considered on the relationship between land prices and development risk. For the most commonly proposed form of the species–area relationship, the fire-fighting approach is optimal even if land prices rise substantially when presently secure areas become threatened. This reflects the assumption that species decline accelerates only after a large proportion of original habitat has been lost. The possibility of large species losses at lower levels of habitat loss justifies at least some pre-emptive conservation, even if land prices are not correlated with threat. If species decline is proportional with habitat loss, the optimal conservation strategy depends strongly on land price dynamics.",
    author = "Spring, {Daniel A.} and Oscar Cacho and {Mac Nally}, R. and Regis Sabbadin",
    note = "Cited By :17 Export Date: 6 June 2017",
    year = "2007",
    doi = "10.1016/j.biocon.2006.12.024",
    language = "English",
    volume = "136",
    pages = "531--540",
    journal = "Biological Conservation",
    issn = "0006-3207",
    publisher = "Elsevier BV",
    number = "4",

    }

    Pre-emptive conservation versus "fire-fighting": A decision theoretic approach. / Spring, Daniel A.; Cacho, Oscar; Mac Nally, R.; Sabbadin, Regis.

    In: Biological Conservation, Vol. 136, No. 4, 2007, p. 531-540.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Pre-emptive conservation versus "fire-fighting": A decision theoretic approach

    AU - Spring, Daniel A.

    AU - Cacho, Oscar

    AU - Mac Nally, R.

    AU - Sabbadin, Regis

    N1 - Cited By :17 Export Date: 6 June 2017

    PY - 2007

    Y1 - 2007

    N2 - How can conservation planners optimally and effectively allocate limited resources between imminently threatened and presently secure areas? Such choices must be made at multiple spatial scales involving a variety of conservation targets. Allocation strategies range from a “fire-fighting” approach, which gives priority to heavily developed areas at high risk of further habitat loss, to a “pre-emptive” approach giving priority to intact habitat tracts before they become threatened. We determined optimal dynamic reserve selection strategies when selections are made in imminently threatened and presently secure areas that will become threatened at uncertain times in the future. The objective was to maximize the expected number of endemic species conserved, predicted with species–area curves. The model was solved for three forms of species–area curve proposed in theoretical studies of habitat loss. Alternative scenarios were considered on the relationship between land prices and development risk. For the most commonly proposed form of the species–area relationship, the fire-fighting approach is optimal even if land prices rise substantially when presently secure areas become threatened. This reflects the assumption that species decline accelerates only after a large proportion of original habitat has been lost. The possibility of large species losses at lower levels of habitat loss justifies at least some pre-emptive conservation, even if land prices are not correlated with threat. If species decline is proportional with habitat loss, the optimal conservation strategy depends strongly on land price dynamics.

    AB - How can conservation planners optimally and effectively allocate limited resources between imminently threatened and presently secure areas? Such choices must be made at multiple spatial scales involving a variety of conservation targets. Allocation strategies range from a “fire-fighting” approach, which gives priority to heavily developed areas at high risk of further habitat loss, to a “pre-emptive” approach giving priority to intact habitat tracts before they become threatened. We determined optimal dynamic reserve selection strategies when selections are made in imminently threatened and presently secure areas that will become threatened at uncertain times in the future. The objective was to maximize the expected number of endemic species conserved, predicted with species–area curves. The model was solved for three forms of species–area curve proposed in theoretical studies of habitat loss. Alternative scenarios were considered on the relationship between land prices and development risk. For the most commonly proposed form of the species–area relationship, the fire-fighting approach is optimal even if land prices rise substantially when presently secure areas become threatened. This reflects the assumption that species decline accelerates only after a large proportion of original habitat has been lost. The possibility of large species losses at lower levels of habitat loss justifies at least some pre-emptive conservation, even if land prices are not correlated with threat. If species decline is proportional with habitat loss, the optimal conservation strategy depends strongly on land price dynamics.

    U2 - 10.1016/j.biocon.2006.12.024

    DO - 10.1016/j.biocon.2006.12.024

    M3 - Article

    VL - 136

    SP - 531

    EP - 540

    JO - Biological Conservation

    JF - Biological Conservation

    SN - 0006-3207

    IS - 4

    ER -