Predicting individual risk for medial tibial stress syndrome in navy recruits

Cameron Garnock, Jeremy Witchalls, Phil Newman

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    1 Citation (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Objectives: Quantifying individual risk for medial tibial stress syndrome (MTSS) is valuable due to the high prevalence, substantial financial and service costs, and lengthy recovery time of the condition. Identification of those at risk is a key first step in prevention of the condition. This study aimed to test a suite of best evidence risk factors in a cohort of Navy recruits and to develop a predictive model for individuals at risk of MTSS. Design: Prospective cohort study of Navy recruits undergoing initial training. Methods: A prospective cohort design, this study screened recruits by assessing gender, MTSS history, years of running experience, orthotic use, BMI, navicular drop, ankle plantarflexion and hip external rotation at the beginning of basic training. Follow-up was conducted at completion of training (11 weeks). Results: Volunteers included 123 recruits (28 females and 95 males). Thirty developed MTSS (19 males and 11 females). Stepwise logistic regression of one half of the data produced a significant model (p. <. 0.001), comprising female gender (OR 4.4, 95% CI 1.0, 18.9, p = 0.05), MTSS history (OR 18.3, 95% CI 3.6, 91.5, p. <. 0.01) and increased hip ER (OR 1.1 per degree, 95% CI 1.0, 1.202, p = 0.05). Findings validated with the other half of the cohort and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed the model had 82% sensitivity and 84% specificity. Conclusions: This predictive model provides military institutions, clinicians and instructors with a strong and accurate calculator for predicting an individual recruit's risk of MTSS.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)586-590
    Number of pages5
    JournalJournal of Science and Medicine in Sport
    Volume21
    Issue number6
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2018

    Fingerprint

    Medial Tibial Stress Syndrome
    Hip
    Cohort Studies
    Ankle
    ROC Curve
    Volunteers
    Logistic Models
    Prospective Studies
    Costs and Cost Analysis
    Sensitivity and Specificity

    Cite this

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    title = "Predicting individual risk for medial tibial stress syndrome in navy recruits",
    abstract = "Objectives: Quantifying individual risk for medial tibial stress syndrome (MTSS) is valuable due to the high prevalence, substantial financial and service costs, and lengthy recovery time of the condition. Identification of those at risk is a key first step in prevention of the condition. This study aimed to test a suite of best evidence risk factors in a cohort of Navy recruits and to develop a predictive model for individuals at risk of MTSS. Design: Prospective cohort study of Navy recruits undergoing initial training. Methods: A prospective cohort design, this study screened recruits by assessing gender, MTSS history, years of running experience, orthotic use, BMI, navicular drop, ankle plantarflexion and hip external rotation at the beginning of basic training. Follow-up was conducted at completion of training (11 weeks). Results: Volunteers included 123 recruits (28 females and 95 males). Thirty developed MTSS (19 males and 11 females). Stepwise logistic regression of one half of the data produced a significant model (p. <. 0.001), comprising female gender (OR 4.4, 95{\%} CI 1.0, 18.9, p = 0.05), MTSS history (OR 18.3, 95{\%} CI 3.6, 91.5, p. <. 0.01) and increased hip ER (OR 1.1 per degree, 95{\%} CI 1.0, 1.202, p = 0.05). Findings validated with the other half of the cohort and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed the model had 82{\%} sensitivity and 84{\%} specificity. Conclusions: This predictive model provides military institutions, clinicians and instructors with a strong and accurate calculator for predicting an individual recruit's risk of MTSS.",
    keywords = "Injury prevention, Lower limb injury, Medial tibial stress syndrome, Navy recruits, Predicting injury",
    author = "Cameron Garnock and Jeremy Witchalls and Phil Newman",
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    volume = "21",
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    Predicting individual risk for medial tibial stress syndrome in navy recruits. / Garnock, Cameron; Witchalls, Jeremy; Newman, Phil.

    In: Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport, Vol. 21, No. 6, 2018, p. 586-590.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Predicting individual risk for medial tibial stress syndrome in navy recruits

    AU - Garnock, Cameron

    AU - Witchalls, Jeremy

    AU - Newman, Phil

    PY - 2018

    Y1 - 2018

    N2 - Objectives: Quantifying individual risk for medial tibial stress syndrome (MTSS) is valuable due to the high prevalence, substantial financial and service costs, and lengthy recovery time of the condition. Identification of those at risk is a key first step in prevention of the condition. This study aimed to test a suite of best evidence risk factors in a cohort of Navy recruits and to develop a predictive model for individuals at risk of MTSS. Design: Prospective cohort study of Navy recruits undergoing initial training. Methods: A prospective cohort design, this study screened recruits by assessing gender, MTSS history, years of running experience, orthotic use, BMI, navicular drop, ankle plantarflexion and hip external rotation at the beginning of basic training. Follow-up was conducted at completion of training (11 weeks). Results: Volunteers included 123 recruits (28 females and 95 males). Thirty developed MTSS (19 males and 11 females). Stepwise logistic regression of one half of the data produced a significant model (p. <. 0.001), comprising female gender (OR 4.4, 95% CI 1.0, 18.9, p = 0.05), MTSS history (OR 18.3, 95% CI 3.6, 91.5, p. <. 0.01) and increased hip ER (OR 1.1 per degree, 95% CI 1.0, 1.202, p = 0.05). Findings validated with the other half of the cohort and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed the model had 82% sensitivity and 84% specificity. Conclusions: This predictive model provides military institutions, clinicians and instructors with a strong and accurate calculator for predicting an individual recruit's risk of MTSS.

    AB - Objectives: Quantifying individual risk for medial tibial stress syndrome (MTSS) is valuable due to the high prevalence, substantial financial and service costs, and lengthy recovery time of the condition. Identification of those at risk is a key first step in prevention of the condition. This study aimed to test a suite of best evidence risk factors in a cohort of Navy recruits and to develop a predictive model for individuals at risk of MTSS. Design: Prospective cohort study of Navy recruits undergoing initial training. Methods: A prospective cohort design, this study screened recruits by assessing gender, MTSS history, years of running experience, orthotic use, BMI, navicular drop, ankle plantarflexion and hip external rotation at the beginning of basic training. Follow-up was conducted at completion of training (11 weeks). Results: Volunteers included 123 recruits (28 females and 95 males). Thirty developed MTSS (19 males and 11 females). Stepwise logistic regression of one half of the data produced a significant model (p. <. 0.001), comprising female gender (OR 4.4, 95% CI 1.0, 18.9, p = 0.05), MTSS history (OR 18.3, 95% CI 3.6, 91.5, p. <. 0.01) and increased hip ER (OR 1.1 per degree, 95% CI 1.0, 1.202, p = 0.05). Findings validated with the other half of the cohort and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed the model had 82% sensitivity and 84% specificity. Conclusions: This predictive model provides military institutions, clinicians and instructors with a strong and accurate calculator for predicting an individual recruit's risk of MTSS.

    KW - Injury prevention

    KW - Lower limb injury

    KW - Medial tibial stress syndrome

    KW - Navy recruits

    KW - Predicting injury

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    UR - http://www.mendeley.com/research/predicting-individual-risk-medial-tibial-stress-syndrome-navy-recruits-1

    U2 - 10.1016/j.jsams.2017.10.020

    DO - 10.1016/j.jsams.2017.10.020

    M3 - Article

    VL - 21

    SP - 586

    EP - 590

    JO - Australian Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport

    JF - Australian Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport

    SN - 1440-2440

    IS - 6

    ER -