Predicting the effects of freshwater diversions on juvenile brown shrimp growth and production: a Bayesian-based approach

Aaron Adamack, Craig Stow, Doran Mason, Lawrence Rozas, Thomas Minello

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    15 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Freshwater diversions from the Mississippi River may help restore coastal wetlands in Louisiana, but their implementation will alter temperature and salinity regimes, potentially affecting juvenile shrimp growth and production. We developed a bioenergetics model for brown shrimp Farfantepenaeus aztecus to investigate water temperature and salinity effects on brown shrimp growth. The model used a Bayesian framework that provided estimates of parameter and model uncertainty. Temperature affected shrimp metabolism, whereas salinity modified food availability. Mortality was modeled using a size-dependent function. We examined the effects of diversion timing (February, March, April and May), length (2ÿ 14, as well as 30 and 60 d), temperature change (+1, 0, ⿿1, ⿿5 and ⿿10°C), initial salinity (5, 15, 25), salinity during the diversion (2, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25) and prey biomass response time (7, 14 and 28 d) on juvenile brown shrimp production. Diversions during February and March had little effect on shrimp, but 30 and 60 d diversions starting in April and May often had large, negative effects on production. April and May diversions that dropped water temperature by 5°C or more could decrease juvenile brown shrimp production by 40 to 60% compared with the baseline, no diversion scenarios. Whether changes in salinity had a positive or negative effect on brown shrimp production depended on the initial salinity of the scenario. Longer diversions and slower prey response times extended the duration brown shrimp were exposed to either the positive or negative effects of diversions, and this magnified the overall (positive or negative) effect on shrimp production. Limiting diversions to February and March when brown shrimp populations are not abundant would minimize negative effects on shrimp production, though managers will be constrained by the needs of other species such as oysters, as well as ecosystem considerations.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)155-173
    Number of pages19
    JournalMarine Ecology Progress Series
    Volume444
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2012

    Fingerprint

    shrimp
    salinity
    water temperature
    bioenergetics
    coastal wetland
    temperature
    effect
    Farfantepenaeus aztecus
    parameter uncertainty
    model uncertainty
    metabolism
    Mississippi River
    water salinity
    mortality
    oysters
    energy metabolism
    ecosystem
    biomass
    managers
    wetlands

    Cite this

    Adamack, Aaron ; Stow, Craig ; Mason, Doran ; Rozas, Lawrence ; Minello, Thomas. / Predicting the effects of freshwater diversions on juvenile brown shrimp growth and production: a Bayesian-based approach. In: Marine Ecology Progress Series. 2012 ; Vol. 444. pp. 155-173.
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    abstract = "Freshwater diversions from the Mississippi River may help restore coastal wetlands in Louisiana, but their implementation will alter temperature and salinity regimes, potentially affecting juvenile shrimp growth and production. We developed a bioenergetics model for brown shrimp Farfantepenaeus aztecus to investigate water temperature and salinity effects on brown shrimp growth. The model used a Bayesian framework that provided estimates of parameter and model uncertainty. Temperature affected shrimp metabolism, whereas salinity modified food availability. Mortality was modeled using a size-dependent function. We examined the effects of diversion timing (February, March, April and May), length (2{\~A}¿ 14, as well as 30 and 60 d), temperature change (+1, 0, {\^a}¿¿1, {\^a}¿¿5 and {\^a}¿¿10{\^A}°C), initial salinity (5, 15, 25), salinity during the diversion (2, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25) and prey biomass response time (7, 14 and 28 d) on juvenile brown shrimp production. Diversions during February and March had little effect on shrimp, but 30 and 60 d diversions starting in April and May often had large, negative effects on production. April and May diversions that dropped water temperature by 5{\^A}°C or more could decrease juvenile brown shrimp production by 40 to 60{\%} compared with the baseline, no diversion scenarios. Whether changes in salinity had a positive or negative effect on brown shrimp production depended on the initial salinity of the scenario. Longer diversions and slower prey response times extended the duration brown shrimp were exposed to either the positive or negative effects of diversions, and this magnified the overall (positive or negative) effect on shrimp production. Limiting diversions to February and March when brown shrimp populations are not abundant would minimize negative effects on shrimp production, though managers will be constrained by the needs of other species such as oysters, as well as ecosystem considerations.",
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    Predicting the effects of freshwater diversions on juvenile brown shrimp growth and production: a Bayesian-based approach. / Adamack, Aaron; Stow, Craig; Mason, Doran; Rozas, Lawrence; Minello, Thomas.

    In: Marine Ecology Progress Series, Vol. 444, 2012, p. 155-173.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Predicting the effects of freshwater diversions on juvenile brown shrimp growth and production: a Bayesian-based approach

    AU - Adamack, Aaron

    AU - Stow, Craig

    AU - Mason, Doran

    AU - Rozas, Lawrence

    AU - Minello, Thomas

    PY - 2012

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    N2 - Freshwater diversions from the Mississippi River may help restore coastal wetlands in Louisiana, but their implementation will alter temperature and salinity regimes, potentially affecting juvenile shrimp growth and production. We developed a bioenergetics model for brown shrimp Farfantepenaeus aztecus to investigate water temperature and salinity effects on brown shrimp growth. The model used a Bayesian framework that provided estimates of parameter and model uncertainty. Temperature affected shrimp metabolism, whereas salinity modified food availability. Mortality was modeled using a size-dependent function. We examined the effects of diversion timing (February, March, April and May), length (2ÿ 14, as well as 30 and 60 d), temperature change (+1, 0, ⿿1, ⿿5 and ⿿10°C), initial salinity (5, 15, 25), salinity during the diversion (2, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25) and prey biomass response time (7, 14 and 28 d) on juvenile brown shrimp production. Diversions during February and March had little effect on shrimp, but 30 and 60 d diversions starting in April and May often had large, negative effects on production. April and May diversions that dropped water temperature by 5°C or more could decrease juvenile brown shrimp production by 40 to 60% compared with the baseline, no diversion scenarios. Whether changes in salinity had a positive or negative effect on brown shrimp production depended on the initial salinity of the scenario. Longer diversions and slower prey response times extended the duration brown shrimp were exposed to either the positive or negative effects of diversions, and this magnified the overall (positive or negative) effect on shrimp production. Limiting diversions to February and March when brown shrimp populations are not abundant would minimize negative effects on shrimp production, though managers will be constrained by the needs of other species such as oysters, as well as ecosystem considerations.

    AB - Freshwater diversions from the Mississippi River may help restore coastal wetlands in Louisiana, but their implementation will alter temperature and salinity regimes, potentially affecting juvenile shrimp growth and production. We developed a bioenergetics model for brown shrimp Farfantepenaeus aztecus to investigate water temperature and salinity effects on brown shrimp growth. The model used a Bayesian framework that provided estimates of parameter and model uncertainty. Temperature affected shrimp metabolism, whereas salinity modified food availability. Mortality was modeled using a size-dependent function. We examined the effects of diversion timing (February, March, April and May), length (2ÿ 14, as well as 30 and 60 d), temperature change (+1, 0, ⿿1, ⿿5 and ⿿10°C), initial salinity (5, 15, 25), salinity during the diversion (2, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25) and prey biomass response time (7, 14 and 28 d) on juvenile brown shrimp production. Diversions during February and March had little effect on shrimp, but 30 and 60 d diversions starting in April and May often had large, negative effects on production. April and May diversions that dropped water temperature by 5°C or more could decrease juvenile brown shrimp production by 40 to 60% compared with the baseline, no diversion scenarios. Whether changes in salinity had a positive or negative effect on brown shrimp production depended on the initial salinity of the scenario. Longer diversions and slower prey response times extended the duration brown shrimp were exposed to either the positive or negative effects of diversions, and this magnified the overall (positive or negative) effect on shrimp production. Limiting diversions to February and March when brown shrimp populations are not abundant would minimize negative effects on shrimp production, though managers will be constrained by the needs of other species such as oysters, as well as ecosystem considerations.

    KW - Farfantepenaeus aztecus

    KW - Restoration

    KW - Salt marsh

    KW - Freshwater diversion

    KW - Mississippi River

    KW - Louisiana

    U2 - 10.3354/meps09431

    DO - 10.3354/meps09431

    M3 - Article

    VL - 444

    SP - 155

    EP - 173

    JO - Marine Ecology - Progress Series

    JF - Marine Ecology - Progress Series

    SN - 0171-8630

    ER -