Predicting white spruce cone crops in the boreal forests of southern and central Yukon

Charles J. Krebs, M. O’Donoghue, Shawn Taylor, A. J. Kenney, E. J. Hofer, S. Boutin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

White spruce (Piceaglauca (Moench) Voss) cone crops were measured at five regional centers in southern and central southern and central Yukon Yukon for 30 years at one site from 1986 to 2015 and at four other sites during 9 to 11 years to select the best climatic model that Predicting white spruce cone crops in the boreal forests of uses cues from growing season temperature and rainfall to predict the size of cone crops. We evaluated six climatic models that use summer temperature and rainfall of years t – 1 and t – 2 to predict cone crops in year t. July temperatures provided the best predictors of white spruce cone crops, and no rainfall variable was related to the size of cone crops. We explored three variants of July temperatures: mean temperature, degree-days > 5 °C, and maximum temperatures. For each of these, we used the DT model that uses the difference in the July temperature measures of years t – 1 and t – 2. We compared the resulting six models with corrected Akaike’s information criterion (AICc) to determine their relative predictive performance. The best model combined _T measures of degree-days > 5 °C and the four highest daily maximum July temperatures with R2 = 0.65. By comparison, the DT model involving only mean July temperatures was less successful (R2 = 0.49). There was good regional synchrony (rp = 0.7 to 0.8) in high cone crops over southern and central Yukon during 1986 to 2015.

Original languageEnglish
Article number1
Pages (from-to)47-52
Number of pages6
JournalCanadian Journal of Forest Research
Volume47
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2017
Externally publishedYes

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