Projecting the impact of climate change on bitou bush and boneseed distributions in Australia

Rachael Gallagher, Linda Beaumont, Paul DOWNEY, Lesley Hughes, Michelle Leishman

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    2 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Global climate change will have significant implications for the management of invasive species in Australia and throughout the world. Changes to temperature and precipitation regimes may influence the fecundity, recruitment and competitive ability of invasive species leading to expansions or contractions of species distributions. Using point localities derived from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), and NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service survey data we have modelled projections of the potential future bioclimatic ranges of the widespread weeds bitou bush (Chrysanthemoides monilifera subsp. rotundata (DC.) Norl.) and boneseed (Chrysanthemoides monilifera subsp. monilifera (L.) Norl.) within Australia. Uncertainty exists in estimates of future climate, due to differences in projections derived from alternate climate models. Also, the severity of climate change will depend on emissions scenarios that will be influenced by human population levels, socio-economic conditions and technological changes. To address some of the uncertainty surrounding future climate, we projected species distributions onto scenarios derived from two climate models (CSIRO MK2 and NCAR) and two emissions scenarios (A1f and B1) for the year 2030. Through investigating the potential for climate change to alter the distribution of bitou bush and boneseed, managers can make informed decisions when developing strategies with a long term perspective.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)37-37
    Number of pages1
    JournalPlant Protection Quarterly
    Volume23
    Issue number1
    Publication statusPublished - 2008

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    climate models
    climate change
    invasive species
    climate modeling
    uncertainty
    biogeography
    Chrysanthemoides monilifera
    climate
    technological change
    competitive ability
    economic conditions
    human population
    contraction
    weed
    fecundity
    socioeconomics
    global climate
    wildlife
    national parks
    managers

    Cite this

    Gallagher, R., Beaumont, L., DOWNEY, P., Hughes, L., & Leishman, M. (2008). Projecting the impact of climate change on bitou bush and boneseed distributions in Australia. Plant Protection Quarterly, 23(1), 37-37.
    Gallagher, Rachael ; Beaumont, Linda ; DOWNEY, Paul ; Hughes, Lesley ; Leishman, Michelle. / Projecting the impact of climate change on bitou bush and boneseed distributions in Australia. In: Plant Protection Quarterly. 2008 ; Vol. 23, No. 1. pp. 37-37.
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    abstract = "Global climate change will have significant implications for the management of invasive species in Australia and throughout the world. Changes to temperature and precipitation regimes may influence the fecundity, recruitment and competitive ability of invasive species leading to expansions or contractions of species distributions. Using point localities derived from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), and NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service survey data we have modelled projections of the potential future bioclimatic ranges of the widespread weeds bitou bush (Chrysanthemoides monilifera subsp. rotundata (DC.) Norl.) and boneseed (Chrysanthemoides monilifera subsp. monilifera (L.) Norl.) within Australia. Uncertainty exists in estimates of future climate, due to differences in projections derived from alternate climate models. Also, the severity of climate change will depend on emissions scenarios that will be influenced by human population levels, socio-economic conditions and technological changes. To address some of the uncertainty surrounding future climate, we projected species distributions onto scenarios derived from two climate models (CSIRO MK2 and NCAR) and two emissions scenarios (A1f and B1) for the year 2030. Through investigating the potential for climate change to alter the distribution of bitou bush and boneseed, managers can make informed decisions when developing strategies with a long term perspective.",
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    Gallagher, R, Beaumont, L, DOWNEY, P, Hughes, L & Leishman, M 2008, 'Projecting the impact of climate change on bitou bush and boneseed distributions in Australia', Plant Protection Quarterly, vol. 23, no. 1, pp. 37-37.

    Projecting the impact of climate change on bitou bush and boneseed distributions in Australia. / Gallagher, Rachael; Beaumont, Linda; DOWNEY, Paul; Hughes, Lesley; Leishman, Michelle.

    In: Plant Protection Quarterly, Vol. 23, No. 1, 2008, p. 37-37.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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    AB - Global climate change will have significant implications for the management of invasive species in Australia and throughout the world. Changes to temperature and precipitation regimes may influence the fecundity, recruitment and competitive ability of invasive species leading to expansions or contractions of species distributions. Using point localities derived from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), and NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service survey data we have modelled projections of the potential future bioclimatic ranges of the widespread weeds bitou bush (Chrysanthemoides monilifera subsp. rotundata (DC.) Norl.) and boneseed (Chrysanthemoides monilifera subsp. monilifera (L.) Norl.) within Australia. Uncertainty exists in estimates of future climate, due to differences in projections derived from alternate climate models. Also, the severity of climate change will depend on emissions scenarios that will be influenced by human population levels, socio-economic conditions and technological changes. To address some of the uncertainty surrounding future climate, we projected species distributions onto scenarios derived from two climate models (CSIRO MK2 and NCAR) and two emissions scenarios (A1f and B1) for the year 2030. Through investigating the potential for climate change to alter the distribution of bitou bush and boneseed, managers can make informed decisions when developing strategies with a long term perspective.

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