As spatial microsimulation techniques derive estimates of socio-economic variables for local areas, there may also be a need to project these socio-economic variables into the future. The issue is that deriving projections for small areas can be difficult due to the high rates of migration between small areas. This chapter describes several projection methods that can be applied to a spatial microsimulation model to project small area socio-economic variables into the future without introducing a more complex dynamic microsimulation technique. These methods include inflating the microdata weights, projecting the benchmark tables using regression and projecting the benchmark tables by other means. Some consideration is also given to the cost and complexity of each method. Finally, this chapter looks at the strength and weaknesses of each methodology.
|Title of host publication
|Spatial microsimulation: a reference guide for users
|Robert Tanton, Kimberley L Edwards
|Place of Publication
|Number of pages
|Published - 2013