Simulating Future Trends in Wealth Inequality

Simon Kelly

Research output: Contribution to conference (non-published works)Paper


The gap between the rich and the poor and changes in the distribution of wealth is being publicly debated at present. This paper contributes to this debate by providing some historical wealth inequality measures and by taking the debate a step further by trying to estimate the direction in which wealth inequality will move in the future.

In recent years, the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling has developed a model that can simulate the accumulation of wealth over time at the family level. Aggregating the families provides estimates of the national distribution of wealth, both now and in the future.

This paper uses the outcomes of the simulation to project future trends in wealth inequality. The results are heavily influenced by the underlying assumptions but provide some very valuable insights into whether wealth inequality will increase or decrease in the future.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages23
Publication statusPublished - 2002
EventAustralian Conference of Economists - Adelaide, Australia
Duration: 30 Sept 20023 Oct 2002


ConferenceAustralian Conference of Economists


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