Simulating Future Trends in Wealth Inequality

Simon Kelly

Simulating Future Trends in Wealth Inequality

Simon Kelly

Research output: Contribution to conference (non-published works) › Paper

Abstract

The gap between the rich and the poor and changes in the distribution of wealth is being publicly debated at present. This paper contributes to this debate by providing some historical wealth inequality measures and by taking the debate a step further by trying to estimate the direction in which wealth inequality will move in the future.

In recent years, the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling has developed a model that can simulate the accumulation of wealth over time at the family level. Aggregating the families provides estimates of the national distribution of wealth, both now and in the future.

This paper uses the outcomes of the simulation to project future trends in wealth inequality. The results are heavily influenced by the underlying assumptions but provide some very valuable insights into whether wealth inequality will increase or decrease in the future.

Original language	English
Pages	1-23
Number of pages	23
Publication status	Published - 2002
Event	Australian Conference of Economists - Adelaide, Australia Duration: 30 Sep 2002 → 3 Oct 2002

Conference

Conference	Australian Conference of Economists
Country	Australia
City	Adelaide
Period	30/09/02 → 3/10/02

Access to Document

http://pandora.nla.gov.au/pan/13950/20021203-0000/www.natsem.canberra.edu.au/pubs/cp02/2002_010/cp2002_010.pdf

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Kelly, S. (2002). Simulating Future Trends in Wealth Inequality. 1-23. Paper presented at Australian Conference of Economists, Adelaide, Australia. http://pandora.nla.gov.au/pan/13950/20021203-0000/www.natsem.canberra.edu.au/pubs/cp02/2002_010/cp2002_010.pdf

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AB - The gap between the rich and the poor and changes in the distribution of wealth is being publicly debated at present. This paper contributes to this debate by providing some historical wealth inequality measures and by taking the debate a step further by trying to estimate the direction in which wealth inequality will move in the future.In recent years, the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling has developed a model that can simulate the accumulation of wealth over time at the family level. Aggregating the families provides estimates of the national distribution of wealth, both now and in the future.This paper uses the outcomes of the simulation to project future trends in wealth inequality. The results are heavily influenced by the underlying assumptions but provide some very valuable insights into whether wealth inequality will increase or decrease in the future.

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