Simulating histories within dynamic microsimulation models

Jinjing Li, Cathal O'Donoghue

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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    Abstract

    Constructing a base dataset is one of the most important elements in the dynamic microsimulation modelling. However, the access to a long historical panel is usually restricted for many reasons. This paper aims to develop a back simulation method that has the potential to generate a consis tent synthetic history panel based on a typical household survey dataset with some complementary statistics. The model uses Living in Ireland (LII) household survey as an example to reconstruct the individual labour market trajectory since 1939. The overal l results of the simulated panel have been proven sensible and consistent based on several validation tests. This method opens the possibility to further investigate into several fields of application such as life - cycle income analysis and pension reform e valuation, which typically requires the historical profile of individuals and has traditionally been difficult to perform.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)52-76
    Number of pages25
    JournalInternational Journal of Microsimulation
    Volume5
    Issue number1
    Publication statusPublished - 2012

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    Microsimulation
    Dynamic models
    Valuation
    Simulation Methods
    Life Cycle
    Life cycle
    Trajectories
    Statistics
    Personnel
    Trajectory
    Modeling
    Model
    History
    Profile
    Market

    Cite this

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    title = "Simulating histories within dynamic microsimulation models",
    abstract = "Constructing a base dataset is one of the most important elements in the dynamic microsimulation modelling. However, the access to a long historical panel is usually restricted for many reasons. This paper aims to develop a back simulation method that has the potential to generate a consis tent synthetic history panel based on a typical household survey dataset with some complementary statistics. The model uses Living in Ireland (LII) household survey as an example to reconstruct the individual labour market trajectory since 1939. The overal l results of the simulated panel have been proven sensible and consistent based on several validation tests. This method opens the possibility to further investigate into several fields of application such as life - cycle income analysis and pension reform e valuation, which typically requires the historical profile of individuals and has traditionally been difficult to perform.",
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    pages = "52--76",
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    Simulating histories within dynamic microsimulation models. / Li, Jinjing; O'Donoghue, Cathal.

    In: International Journal of Microsimulation, Vol. 5, No. 1, 2012, p. 52-76.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Simulating histories within dynamic microsimulation models

    AU - Li, Jinjing

    AU - O'Donoghue, Cathal

    PY - 2012

    Y1 - 2012

    N2 - Constructing a base dataset is one of the most important elements in the dynamic microsimulation modelling. However, the access to a long historical panel is usually restricted for many reasons. This paper aims to develop a back simulation method that has the potential to generate a consis tent synthetic history panel based on a typical household survey dataset with some complementary statistics. The model uses Living in Ireland (LII) household survey as an example to reconstruct the individual labour market trajectory since 1939. The overal l results of the simulated panel have been proven sensible and consistent based on several validation tests. This method opens the possibility to further investigate into several fields of application such as life - cycle income analysis and pension reform e valuation, which typically requires the historical profile of individuals and has traditionally been difficult to perform.

    AB - Constructing a base dataset is one of the most important elements in the dynamic microsimulation modelling. However, the access to a long historical panel is usually restricted for many reasons. This paper aims to develop a back simulation method that has the potential to generate a consis tent synthetic history panel based on a typical household survey dataset with some complementary statistics. The model uses Living in Ireland (LII) household survey as an example to reconstruct the individual labour market trajectory since 1939. The overal l results of the simulated panel have been proven sensible and consistent based on several validation tests. This method opens the possibility to further investigate into several fields of application such as life - cycle income analysis and pension reform e valuation, which typically requires the historical profile of individuals and has traditionally been difficult to perform.

    KW - microsimulation

    KW - base dataset

    KW - history simulation

    KW - back simulation

    M3 - Article

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    JO - International Journal of Microsimulation

    JF - International Journal of Microsimulation

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