Simulating the effects of nutrient loading rates and hypoxia on bay anchovy in Chesapeake Bay using coupled hydrodynamic, water quality, and individual-based fish models

Aaron T. Adamack, Kenneth A. Rose, Carl F. Cerco

    Research output: A Conference proceeding or a Chapter in BookChapter

    4 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Water quality in the Chesapeake Bay has decreased since the 1950s due to an increase in nutrient loadings that have increased the extent and duration of hypoxic conditions. Restoration via large-scale reductions in nutrient loadings is now underway. How reducing nutrient loadings will affect water quality is well predicted; however, the effects of reduced nutrients (reduced food availability) and associated reduced hypoxia on fish are generally unknown as most water quality models do not include trophic levels higher than zooplankton. We dynamically coupled a spatially explicit, individual-based population dynamics model of juvenile and adult anchovy to the three-dimensional Chesapeake Bay eutrophication model. Growth rates of individual anchovy were calculated using a bioenergetics equation. Anchovy consumption rates were forced by zooplankton densities from the water quality model, and anchovy consumption of zooplankton was added as an additional mortality term on zooplankton in the eutrophication model. Anchovy mortality was size dependent and their movement depended on water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and zooplankton concentrations. Multi-year simulations with fixed annual recruitment were performed under decreased, baseline, and increased nutrient loadings scenarios. The results of our analyses show that anchovy responses to changed nutrient loadings are dominated by changes in productivity, including simultaneous changes in growth and mortality rates, and spatial distribution, and depend on life stage. As such, we recommend using full life cycle, spatially explicit population models that are dynamically coupled to water quality models as a tool for predicting the effects of changes in nutrient loadings on fish population dynamics.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationModeling Coastal Hypoxia
    Subtitle of host publicationNumerical Simulations of Patterns, Controls and Effects of Dissolved Oxygen Dynamicscs
    EditorsDubravko Justic, Kenneth A. Rose, Robert D. Hetland, Katja Fennel
    Place of PublicationCham, Switzerland
    PublisherSpringer
    Pages319-357
    Number of pages39
    ISBN (Electronic)9783319545714
    ISBN (Print)9783319545714
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 3 May 2017

    Publication series

    NameModeling Coastal Hypoxia: Numerical Simulations of Patterns, Controls and Effects of Dissolved Oxygen Dynamics

    Fingerprint

    Hypoxia
    Water Quality
    Chesapeake Bay
    anchovies
    Hydrodynamics
    hypoxia
    pollution load
    Fish
    Nutrients
    hydrodynamics
    Zooplankton
    Fishes
    water quality
    zooplankton
    Food
    nutrient
    fish
    hydrologic models
    Eutrophication
    eutrophication

    Cite this

    Adamack, A. T., Rose, K. A., & Cerco, C. F. (2017). Simulating the effects of nutrient loading rates and hypoxia on bay anchovy in Chesapeake Bay using coupled hydrodynamic, water quality, and individual-based fish models. In D. Justic, K. A. Rose, R. D. Hetland, & K. Fennel (Eds.), Modeling Coastal Hypoxia: Numerical Simulations of Patterns, Controls and Effects of Dissolved Oxygen Dynamicscs (pp. 319-357). (Modeling Coastal Hypoxia: Numerical Simulations of Patterns, Controls and Effects of Dissolved Oxygen Dynamics). Cham, Switzerland: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-54571-4_12
    Adamack, Aaron T. ; Rose, Kenneth A. ; Cerco, Carl F. / Simulating the effects of nutrient loading rates and hypoxia on bay anchovy in Chesapeake Bay using coupled hydrodynamic, water quality, and individual-based fish models. Modeling Coastal Hypoxia: Numerical Simulations of Patterns, Controls and Effects of Dissolved Oxygen Dynamicscs. editor / Dubravko Justic ; Kenneth A. Rose ; Robert D. Hetland ; Katja Fennel. Cham, Switzerland : Springer, 2017. pp. 319-357 (Modeling Coastal Hypoxia: Numerical Simulations of Patterns, Controls and Effects of Dissolved Oxygen Dynamics).
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    abstract = "Water quality in the Chesapeake Bay has decreased since the 1950s due to an increase in nutrient loadings that have increased the extent and duration of hypoxic conditions. Restoration via large-scale reductions in nutrient loadings is now underway. How reducing nutrient loadings will affect water quality is well predicted; however, the effects of reduced nutrients (reduced food availability) and associated reduced hypoxia on fish are generally unknown as most water quality models do not include trophic levels higher than zooplankton. We dynamically coupled a spatially explicit, individual-based population dynamics model of juvenile and adult anchovy to the three-dimensional Chesapeake Bay eutrophication model. Growth rates of individual anchovy were calculated using a bioenergetics equation. Anchovy consumption rates were forced by zooplankton densities from the water quality model, and anchovy consumption of zooplankton was added as an additional mortality term on zooplankton in the eutrophication model. Anchovy mortality was size dependent and their movement depended on water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and zooplankton concentrations. Multi-year simulations with fixed annual recruitment were performed under decreased, baseline, and increased nutrient loadings scenarios. The results of our analyses show that anchovy responses to changed nutrient loadings are dominated by changes in productivity, including simultaneous changes in growth and mortality rates, and spatial distribution, and depend on life stage. As such, we recommend using full life cycle, spatially explicit population models that are dynamically coupled to water quality models as a tool for predicting the effects of changes in nutrient loadings on fish population dynamics.",
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    Adamack, AT, Rose, KA & Cerco, CF 2017, Simulating the effects of nutrient loading rates and hypoxia on bay anchovy in Chesapeake Bay using coupled hydrodynamic, water quality, and individual-based fish models. in D Justic, KA Rose, RD Hetland & K Fennel (eds), Modeling Coastal Hypoxia: Numerical Simulations of Patterns, Controls and Effects of Dissolved Oxygen Dynamicscs. Modeling Coastal Hypoxia: Numerical Simulations of Patterns, Controls and Effects of Dissolved Oxygen Dynamics, Springer, Cham, Switzerland, pp. 319-357. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-54571-4_12

    Simulating the effects of nutrient loading rates and hypoxia on bay anchovy in Chesapeake Bay using coupled hydrodynamic, water quality, and individual-based fish models. / Adamack, Aaron T.; Rose, Kenneth A.; Cerco, Carl F.

    Modeling Coastal Hypoxia: Numerical Simulations of Patterns, Controls and Effects of Dissolved Oxygen Dynamicscs. ed. / Dubravko Justic; Kenneth A. Rose; Robert D. Hetland; Katja Fennel. Cham, Switzerland : Springer, 2017. p. 319-357 (Modeling Coastal Hypoxia: Numerical Simulations of Patterns, Controls and Effects of Dissolved Oxygen Dynamics).

    Research output: A Conference proceeding or a Chapter in BookChapter

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    T1 - Simulating the effects of nutrient loading rates and hypoxia on bay anchovy in Chesapeake Bay using coupled hydrodynamic, water quality, and individual-based fish models

    AU - Adamack, Aaron T.

    AU - Rose, Kenneth A.

    AU - Cerco, Carl F.

    PY - 2017/5/3

    Y1 - 2017/5/3

    N2 - Water quality in the Chesapeake Bay has decreased since the 1950s due to an increase in nutrient loadings that have increased the extent and duration of hypoxic conditions. Restoration via large-scale reductions in nutrient loadings is now underway. How reducing nutrient loadings will affect water quality is well predicted; however, the effects of reduced nutrients (reduced food availability) and associated reduced hypoxia on fish are generally unknown as most water quality models do not include trophic levels higher than zooplankton. We dynamically coupled a spatially explicit, individual-based population dynamics model of juvenile and adult anchovy to the three-dimensional Chesapeake Bay eutrophication model. Growth rates of individual anchovy were calculated using a bioenergetics equation. Anchovy consumption rates were forced by zooplankton densities from the water quality model, and anchovy consumption of zooplankton was added as an additional mortality term on zooplankton in the eutrophication model. Anchovy mortality was size dependent and their movement depended on water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and zooplankton concentrations. Multi-year simulations with fixed annual recruitment were performed under decreased, baseline, and increased nutrient loadings scenarios. The results of our analyses show that anchovy responses to changed nutrient loadings are dominated by changes in productivity, including simultaneous changes in growth and mortality rates, and spatial distribution, and depend on life stage. As such, we recommend using full life cycle, spatially explicit population models that are dynamically coupled to water quality models as a tool for predicting the effects of changes in nutrient loadings on fish population dynamics.

    AB - Water quality in the Chesapeake Bay has decreased since the 1950s due to an increase in nutrient loadings that have increased the extent and duration of hypoxic conditions. Restoration via large-scale reductions in nutrient loadings is now underway. How reducing nutrient loadings will affect water quality is well predicted; however, the effects of reduced nutrients (reduced food availability) and associated reduced hypoxia on fish are generally unknown as most water quality models do not include trophic levels higher than zooplankton. We dynamically coupled a spatially explicit, individual-based population dynamics model of juvenile and adult anchovy to the three-dimensional Chesapeake Bay eutrophication model. Growth rates of individual anchovy were calculated using a bioenergetics equation. Anchovy consumption rates were forced by zooplankton densities from the water quality model, and anchovy consumption of zooplankton was added as an additional mortality term on zooplankton in the eutrophication model. Anchovy mortality was size dependent and their movement depended on water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and zooplankton concentrations. Multi-year simulations with fixed annual recruitment were performed under decreased, baseline, and increased nutrient loadings scenarios. The results of our analyses show that anchovy responses to changed nutrient loadings are dominated by changes in productivity, including simultaneous changes in growth and mortality rates, and spatial distribution, and depend on life stage. As such, we recommend using full life cycle, spatially explicit population models that are dynamically coupled to water quality models as a tool for predicting the effects of changes in nutrient loadings on fish population dynamics.

    KW - Bay anchovy

    KW - Chesapeake bay

    KW - Hypoxia

    KW - Individual-based model

    KW - Numerical modeling

    KW - Nutrient loading

    KW - Population dynamics

    UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85033606641&partnerID=8YFLogxK

    UR - http://www.mendeley.com/research/simulating-effects-nutrient-loading-rates-hypoxia-bay-anchovy-chesapeake-bay-using-coupled-hydrodyna

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    BT - Modeling Coastal Hypoxia

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    PB - Springer

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    Adamack AT, Rose KA, Cerco CF. Simulating the effects of nutrient loading rates and hypoxia on bay anchovy in Chesapeake Bay using coupled hydrodynamic, water quality, and individual-based fish models. In Justic D, Rose KA, Hetland RD, Fennel K, editors, Modeling Coastal Hypoxia: Numerical Simulations of Patterns, Controls and Effects of Dissolved Oxygen Dynamicscs. Cham, Switzerland: Springer. 2017. p. 319-357. (Modeling Coastal Hypoxia: Numerical Simulations of Patterns, Controls and Effects of Dissolved Oxygen Dynamics). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-54571-4_12