Spatial analysis of housing stress estimation in Australia with statistical validation

A large number of Australian households are experiencing housing stress. Decision makers at the national and regional levels need reliable small area statistics on housing stress, to most efficiently and fairly target assistance and policy design. This paper studies small area housing stress estimation in Australia and examines various distributive scenarios of the estimates through spatial analysis of a synthetically microsimulated data. Results reveal that one in every nine households in Australia is experiencing housing stress, with private renter households being most greatly affected. About two-thirds of Australian households with housing stress reside in the eight major capital cities, principally in Sydney and Melbourne. The statistical local area level estimates of housing stress are much lower in Canberra, compared to the other major cities. Scenarios of the spatial analysis identify small area level hotspots for housing stress across Australia. A new approach for validating the results of microsimulated data produced by the microsimulation modelling technology reveals statistically accurate housing stress estimation for about 94.3 percent of small areas.