TY - JOUR
T1 - Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Dengue Incidence in Medan City, North Sumatera, Indonesia
AU - Pasaribu, Ayodhia Pitaloka
AU - Tsheten, Tsheten
AU - Yamin, Muhammad
AU - Maryani, Yulia
AU - Fahmi, Fahmi
AU - Clements, Archie C A
AU - Gray, Darren J
AU - Wangdi, Kinley
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
PY - 2021/3/5
Y1 - 2021/3/5
N2 - Dengue has been a perennial public health problem in Medan city, North Sumatera, despite the widespread implementation of dengue control. Understanding the spatial and temporal pattern of dengue is critical for effective implementation of dengue control strategies. This study aimed to characterize the epidemiology and spatio-temporal patterns of dengue in Medan City, Indonesia. Data on dengue incidence were obtained from January 2016 to December 2019. Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic was used to identify dengue clusters. The Getis-Ord Gi* and Anselin Local Moran's I statistics were used for further characterisation of dengue hotspots and cold spots. Results: A total of 5556 cases were reported from 151 villages across 21 districts in Medan City. Annual incidence in villages varied from zero to 439.32 per 100,000 inhabitants. According to Kulldorf's space-time scan statistic, the most likely cluster was located in 27 villages in the south-west of Medan between January 2016 and February 2017, with a relative risk (RR) of 2.47. Getis-Ord Gi* and LISA statistics also identified these villages as hotpot areas. Significant space-time dengue clusters were identified during the study period. These clusters could be prioritized for resource allocation for more efficient prevention and control of dengue.
AB - Dengue has been a perennial public health problem in Medan city, North Sumatera, despite the widespread implementation of dengue control. Understanding the spatial and temporal pattern of dengue is critical for effective implementation of dengue control strategies. This study aimed to characterize the epidemiology and spatio-temporal patterns of dengue in Medan City, Indonesia. Data on dengue incidence were obtained from January 2016 to December 2019. Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic was used to identify dengue clusters. The Getis-Ord Gi* and Anselin Local Moran's I statistics were used for further characterisation of dengue hotspots and cold spots. Results: A total of 5556 cases were reported from 151 villages across 21 districts in Medan City. Annual incidence in villages varied from zero to 439.32 per 100,000 inhabitants. According to Kulldorf's space-time scan statistic, the most likely cluster was located in 27 villages in the south-west of Medan between January 2016 and February 2017, with a relative risk (RR) of 2.47. Getis-Ord Gi* and LISA statistics also identified these villages as hotpot areas. Significant space-time dengue clusters were identified during the study period. These clusters could be prioritized for resource allocation for more efficient prevention and control of dengue.
KW - Clustering
KW - Dengue
KW - Indonesia
KW - Medan
KW - Spatio-temporal
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85106914620&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/tropicalmed6010030
DO - 10.3390/tropicalmed6010030
M3 - Article
C2 - 33807820
SN - 2414-6366
VL - 6
SP - 1
EP - 15
JO - Tropical medicine and infectious disease
JF - Tropical medicine and infectious disease
IS - 1
M1 - 30
ER -
