Stream hydrological and ecological responses to climate change assessed with an artificial neural network

N.L. Poff, S. Tokar, P. Johnson

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    92 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    An artificial neural network (ANN) was used to evaluate the hydrological responses of two streams in the northeastern U.S. having different hydroclimatologies (rainfall and snow+rain) to hypothetical changes in precipitation and thermal regimes associated with climate change. For each stream, historic precipitation and temperature data were used as input to an ANN, which generated a synthetic daily hydrograph with high goodness-of-fit (r2 > 0.80). Four scenarios of climate change were used to evaluate stream responses to climate change: +25% precipitation, -25% precipitation, 2 x the coefficient of variation in precipitation regime, and +3°C average temperature. Responses were expressed in hydrological terms of ecological relevance, including flow variability, baseflow conditions, and frequency and predictability of floods. Increased average precipitation induced elevated runoff and more frequent high flow events, while decreased precipitation had the opposite effect. Elevated temperature reduced average runoff. Doubled precipitation variability had a large effect on many variables, including average runoff, variability of flow, flooding frequency, and baseflow stability. In general, the rainfall-dominated stream exhibited greater relative response to climate change scenarios than did the snowmelt stream.
    Original languageUndefined
    Pages (from-to)857-863
    Number of pages7
    JournalLimnology and Oceanography
    Volume41
    Issue number5
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 1996

    Cite this

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    title = "Stream hydrological and ecological responses to climate change assessed with an artificial neural network",
    abstract = "An artificial neural network (ANN) was used to evaluate the hydrological responses of two streams in the northeastern U.S. having different hydroclimatologies (rainfall and snow+rain) to hypothetical changes in precipitation and thermal regimes associated with climate change. For each stream, historic precipitation and temperature data were used as input to an ANN, which generated a synthetic daily hydrograph with high goodness-of-fit (r2 > 0.80). Four scenarios of climate change were used to evaluate stream responses to climate change: +25{\%} precipitation, -25{\%} precipitation, 2 x the coefficient of variation in precipitation regime, and +3°C average temperature. Responses were expressed in hydrological terms of ecological relevance, including flow variability, baseflow conditions, and frequency and predictability of floods. Increased average precipitation induced elevated runoff and more frequent high flow events, while decreased precipitation had the opposite effect. Elevated temperature reduced average runoff. Doubled precipitation variability had a large effect on many variables, including average runoff, variability of flow, flooding frequency, and baseflow stability. In general, the rainfall-dominated stream exhibited greater relative response to climate change scenarios than did the snowmelt stream.",
    author = "N.L. Poff and S. Tokar and P. Johnson",
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    year = "1996",
    doi = "10.4319/lo.1996.41.5.0857",
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    volume = "41",
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    Stream hydrological and ecological responses to climate change assessed with an artificial neural network. / Poff, N.L.; Tokar, S.; Johnson, P.

    In: Limnology and Oceanography, Vol. 41, No. 5, 1996, p. 857-863.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Stream hydrological and ecological responses to climate change assessed with an artificial neural network

    AU - Poff, N.L.

    AU - Tokar, S.

    AU - Johnson, P.

    N1 - cited By 87

    PY - 1996

    Y1 - 1996

    N2 - An artificial neural network (ANN) was used to evaluate the hydrological responses of two streams in the northeastern U.S. having different hydroclimatologies (rainfall and snow+rain) to hypothetical changes in precipitation and thermal regimes associated with climate change. For each stream, historic precipitation and temperature data were used as input to an ANN, which generated a synthetic daily hydrograph with high goodness-of-fit (r2 > 0.80). Four scenarios of climate change were used to evaluate stream responses to climate change: +25% precipitation, -25% precipitation, 2 x the coefficient of variation in precipitation regime, and +3°C average temperature. Responses were expressed in hydrological terms of ecological relevance, including flow variability, baseflow conditions, and frequency and predictability of floods. Increased average precipitation induced elevated runoff and more frequent high flow events, while decreased precipitation had the opposite effect. Elevated temperature reduced average runoff. Doubled precipitation variability had a large effect on many variables, including average runoff, variability of flow, flooding frequency, and baseflow stability. In general, the rainfall-dominated stream exhibited greater relative response to climate change scenarios than did the snowmelt stream.

    AB - An artificial neural network (ANN) was used to evaluate the hydrological responses of two streams in the northeastern U.S. having different hydroclimatologies (rainfall and snow+rain) to hypothetical changes in precipitation and thermal regimes associated with climate change. For each stream, historic precipitation and temperature data were used as input to an ANN, which generated a synthetic daily hydrograph with high goodness-of-fit (r2 > 0.80). Four scenarios of climate change were used to evaluate stream responses to climate change: +25% precipitation, -25% precipitation, 2 x the coefficient of variation in precipitation regime, and +3°C average temperature. Responses were expressed in hydrological terms of ecological relevance, including flow variability, baseflow conditions, and frequency and predictability of floods. Increased average precipitation induced elevated runoff and more frequent high flow events, while decreased precipitation had the opposite effect. Elevated temperature reduced average runoff. Doubled precipitation variability had a large effect on many variables, including average runoff, variability of flow, flooding frequency, and baseflow stability. In general, the rainfall-dominated stream exhibited greater relative response to climate change scenarios than did the snowmelt stream.

    U2 - 10.4319/lo.1996.41.5.0857

    DO - 10.4319/lo.1996.41.5.0857

    M3 - Article

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    JO - Limnology and Oceanography

    JF - Limnology and Oceanography

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