TY - JOUR
T1 - Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios
AU - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
AU - Guo, Yuming
AU - Sera, Francesco
AU - Huber, Veronika
AU - Schleussner, Carl Friedrich
AU - Mitchell, Dann
AU - Tong, Shilu
AU - Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio
AU - Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento
AU - Lavigne, Eric
AU - Correa, Patricia Matus
AU - Ortega, Nicolas Valdes
AU - Kan, Haidong
AU - Osorio, Samuel
AU - Kyselý, Jan
AU - Urban, Aleš
AU - Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.
AU - Ryti, Niilo R.I.
AU - Pascal, Mathilde
AU - Goodman, Patrick G.
AU - Zeka, Ariana
AU - Michelozzi, Paola
AU - Scortichini, Matteo
AU - Hashizume, Masahiro
AU - Honda, Yasushi
AU - Hurtado-Diaz, Magali
AU - Cruz, Julio
AU - Seposo, Xerxes
AU - Kim, Ho
AU - Tobias, Aurelio
AU - Íñiguez, Carmen
AU - Forsberg, Bertil
AU - Åström, Daniel Oudin
AU - Ragettli, Martina S.
AU - Röösli, Martin
AU - Guo, Yue Leon
AU - Wu, Chang fu
AU - Zanobetti, Antonella
AU - Schwartz, Joel
AU - Bell, Michelle L.
AU - Dang, Tran Ngoc
AU - Do Van, Dung
AU - Heaviside, Clare
AU - Vardoulakis, Sotiris
AU - Hajat, Shakoor
AU - Haines, Andy
AU - Armstrong, Ben
AU - Ebi, Kristie L.
AU - Gasparrini, Antonio
N1 - Funding Information:
Acknowledgements This work was primarily supported by the Medical Research Council-UK (Grant ID: MR/ M022625/1) and by the Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1). The following individual grants also supported this work: YG was supported by the Career Development Fellowship of Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (Grant ID: APP1107107); AT was supported by the Ministry of Education of Spain (Grant ID: PRX12/00515); JK and AU was supported by the Czech Science Foundation (Grant ID: 16-22000S); JJKJ and NRIR were supported by the Research Council for Health, Academy of Finland (Grant ID: 266314); YLG was supported by the National Health Research Institutes of Taiwan (Grant ID: NHRI-EM-106-SP03); MLB was supported by a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Assistance Agreement awarded to Yale University (Grant ID: 83587101); YH, MH, XS, and TND were supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency; YH, LG, and HK were supported by the Global Research Lab (#K21004000001-10A0500-00710) through the National Research Foundation of Korea funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and future planning. BA was supported by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Environmental Change and Health. C.F.S. acknowledges support by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment (16_II_148_Global_A_IMPACT) and by German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (01LS1613A).
Funding Information:
This work was primarily supported by the Medical Research Council-UK (Grant ID: MR/M022625/1) and by the Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1). The following individual grants also supported this work: YG was supported by the Career Development Fellowship of Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (Grant ID: APP1107107); AT was supported by the Ministry of Education of Spain (Grant ID: PRX12/00515); JK and AU was supported by the Czech Science Foundation (Grant ID: 16-22000S); JJKJ and NRIR were supported by the Research Council for Health, Academy of Finland (Grant ID: 266314); YLG was supported by the National Health Research Institutes of Taiwan (Grant ID: NHRI-EM-106-SP03); MLB was supported by a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Assistance Agreement awarded to Yale University (Grant ID: 83587101); YH, MH, XS, and TND were supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency; YH, LG, and HK were supported by the Global Research Lab (#K21004000001-10A0500-00710) through the National Research Foundation of Korea funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and future planning. BA was supported by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Environmental Change and Health. C.F.S. acknowledges support by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment (16_II_148_Global_A_IMPACT) and by German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (01LS1613A).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018, The Author(s).
PY - 2018/10/1
Y1 - 2018/10/1
N2 - The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.
AB - The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.
KW - Climate change
KW - Mortality
KW - Projections
KW - Temperature
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85053489637&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3
DO - 10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85053489637
SN - 0165-0009
VL - 150
SP - 391
EP - 402
JO - Climatic Change
JF - Climatic Change
IS - 3-4
ER -