Smoking is the leading contributor to the burden of disease among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, and there is considerable potential for change. Understanding the epidemic stage may provide insight into probable trends in smoking-attributable mortality, and inform program and policy development. Tobacco use among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians has declined substantially, accompanied by declining tobacco-related cardiovascular mortality. Based on the available evidence, we expect tobacco-related cancer mortality to remain high, but peak within the next decade; however, there is a critical need for improved evidence to make an accurate assessment. The continuation and expansion of comprehensive tobacco reduction measures is expected to further decrease tobacco use. Health gains will be observed over both the short and long term.