The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems

Guy Woodward, NURIA Bonada, Lee Brown, Russell Death, Isabelle Durance, Clare Gray, Sally Hladyz, Mark E. Ledger, Alexander Milner, Stephen Ormerod, Ross THOMPSON, Samraat Pawar

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    48 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running-water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs, and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; and reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1-15
    Number of pages15
    JournalPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
    Volume371
    Issue number1694
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2016

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    Food Chain
    Ecosystems
    food webs
    Ecosystem
    Water
    ecosystems
    water
    biological assessment
    prediction
    Climate Change
    Drought
    Droughts
    Practice Management
    wildfires
    Fresh Water
    Metabolism
    Climate change
    environmental impact
    Theoretical Models
    Up-Regulation

    Cite this

    Woodward, Guy ; Bonada, NURIA ; Brown, Lee ; Death, Russell ; Durance, Isabelle ; Gray, Clare ; Hladyz, Sally ; Ledger, Mark E. ; Milner, Alexander ; Ormerod, Stephen ; THOMPSON, Ross ; Pawar, Samraat. / The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems. In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2016 ; Vol. 371, No. 1694. pp. 1-15.
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    abstract = "Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running-water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs, and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; and reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world.",
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    Woodward, G, Bonada, NURIA, Brown, L, Death, R, Durance, I, Gray, C, Hladyz, S, Ledger, ME, Milner, A, Ormerod, S, THOMPSON, R & Pawar, S 2016, 'The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems', Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol. 371, no. 1694, pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0274

    The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems. / Woodward, Guy; Bonada, NURIA; Brown, Lee; Death, Russell; Durance, Isabelle; Gray, Clare; Hladyz, Sally; Ledger, Mark E.; Milner, Alexander; Ormerod, Stephen; THOMPSON, Ross; Pawar, Samraat.

    In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 371, No. 1694, 2016, p. 1-15.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems

    AU - Woodward, Guy

    AU - Bonada, NURIA

    AU - Brown, Lee

    AU - Death, Russell

    AU - Durance, Isabelle

    AU - Gray, Clare

    AU - Hladyz, Sally

    AU - Ledger, Mark E.

    AU - Milner, Alexander

    AU - Ormerod, Stephen

    AU - THOMPSON, Ross

    AU - Pawar, Samraat

    PY - 2016

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    N2 - Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running-water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs, and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; and reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world.

    AB - Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running-water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs, and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; and reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world.

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