The global effect of extreme weather events on nutrient supply

A superposed epoch analysis

Caro S. Park, Elisabeth Vogel, Leila M. Larson, Samuel S. Myers, Mark Daniel, Beverley Ann Biggs

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Background: To date, the effects of extreme weather events on nutrient supply within the population have not been quantified. In this study, we investigated micronutrient, macronutrient, and fibre supply changes during 175 extreme weather events within 87 countries in the year that a major extreme weather event occurred, with a targeted focus on low-income settings. Methods: We collected data from the International Disasters Database and the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply model for the period 1961–2010, and applied superposed epoch analysis to calculate the percentage change in nutrient supply during the year of an extreme weather event relative to its historical context. We composited globally and by subgroup (EU, landlocked developing countries, least developed countries, low-income food deficit countries, and net food-importing developing countries). Lastly, we reported nutrient supply changes in terms of recommended dietary allowance for children aged 1–3 years. Findings: Globally, all micronutrient supplies had a modest negative percentage change during the year of an extreme weather event; of these effects, those that reached an α=0·05 significance level included calcium, folate, thiamin, vitamin B6, and vitamin C, with nutrient supply changes ranging from −0·40 to −1·73% of the average supply. The effect of an extreme weather event was especially magnified among landlocked developing countries and low-income food deficit countries, with significant nutrient supply changes ranging from −1·61 to −7·57% of the average supply. Furthermore, the observed nutrient supply deficits in landlocked developing countries constituted a large percentage (ranging from 1·95 to 39·19%) of what a healthy child's sufficient average dietary intake should be. Interpretation: The global effects of extreme weather events on nutrient supply found in this study are modest in isolation; however, in the context of nutrient needs for healthy child development in low-income settings, the effects observed are substantial. Funding: Australian-American Fulbright Commission.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)e429-e438
Number of pages10
JournalThe Lancet Planetary Health
Volume3
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2019

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Weather
supply
Food
event
Developing Countries
low income
developing country
deficit
Micronutrients
food
Recommended Dietary Allowances
Vitamin B 6
Thiamine
Disasters
Child Development
Folic Acid
social isolation
disaster
Ascorbic Acid
EU

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Park, Caro S. ; Vogel, Elisabeth ; Larson, Leila M. ; Myers, Samuel S. ; Daniel, Mark ; Biggs, Beverley Ann. / The global effect of extreme weather events on nutrient supply : A superposed epoch analysis. In: The Lancet Planetary Health. 2019 ; Vol. 3, No. 10. pp. e429-e438.
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abstract = "Background: To date, the effects of extreme weather events on nutrient supply within the population have not been quantified. In this study, we investigated micronutrient, macronutrient, and fibre supply changes during 175 extreme weather events within 87 countries in the year that a major extreme weather event occurred, with a targeted focus on low-income settings. Methods: We collected data from the International Disasters Database and the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply model for the period 1961–2010, and applied superposed epoch analysis to calculate the percentage change in nutrient supply during the year of an extreme weather event relative to its historical context. We composited globally and by subgroup (EU, landlocked developing countries, least developed countries, low-income food deficit countries, and net food-importing developing countries). Lastly, we reported nutrient supply changes in terms of recommended dietary allowance for children aged 1–3 years. Findings: Globally, all micronutrient supplies had a modest negative percentage change during the year of an extreme weather event; of these effects, those that reached an α=0·05 significance level included calcium, folate, thiamin, vitamin B6, and vitamin C, with nutrient supply changes ranging from −0·40 to −1·73{\%} of the average supply. The effect of an extreme weather event was especially magnified among landlocked developing countries and low-income food deficit countries, with significant nutrient supply changes ranging from −1·61 to −7·57{\%} of the average supply. Furthermore, the observed nutrient supply deficits in landlocked developing countries constituted a large percentage (ranging from 1·95 to 39·19{\%}) of what a healthy child's sufficient average dietary intake should be. Interpretation: The global effects of extreme weather events on nutrient supply found in this study are modest in isolation; however, in the context of nutrient needs for healthy child development in low-income settings, the effects observed are substantial. Funding: Australian-American Fulbright Commission.",
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The global effect of extreme weather events on nutrient supply : A superposed epoch analysis. / Park, Caro S.; Vogel, Elisabeth; Larson, Leila M.; Myers, Samuel S.; Daniel, Mark; Biggs, Beverley Ann.

In: The Lancet Planetary Health, Vol. 3, No. 10, 10.2019, p. e429-e438.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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