TY - JOUR
T1 - The global effect of extreme weather events on nutrient supply
T2 - A superposed epoch analysis
AU - Park, Caroline S.
AU - Vogel, Elisabeth
AU - Larson, Leila M.
AU - Myers, Samuel S.
AU - Daniel, Mark
AU - Biggs, Beverley Ann
N1 - Funding Information:
The study was funded by the Australian–American Fulbright Commission. Katja Frieler, Natasha Ballis, Kate Saunders, and the rest of the Australian–German Climate and Energy College have provided endless help throughout the process.
Funding Information:
The study was funded by the Australian?American Fulbright Commission. Katja Frieler, Natasha Ballis, Kate Saunders, and the rest of the Australian?German Climate and Energy College have provided endless help throughout the process. Editorial note: The Lancet Group takes a neutral position with respect to territorial claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
PY - 2019/10
Y1 - 2019/10
N2 - Background: To date, the effects of extreme weather events on nutrient supply within the population have not been quantified. In this study, we investigated micronutrient, macronutrient, and fibre supply changes during 175 extreme weather events within 87 countries in the year that a major extreme weather event occurred, with a targeted focus on low-income settings. Methods: We collected data from the International Disasters Database and the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply model for the period 1961–2010, and applied superposed epoch analysis to calculate the percentage change in nutrient supply during the year of an extreme weather event relative to its historical context. We composited globally and by subgroup (EU, landlocked developing countries, least developed countries, low-income food deficit countries, and net food-importing developing countries). Lastly, we reported nutrient supply changes in terms of recommended dietary allowance for children aged 1–3 years. Findings: Globally, all micronutrient supplies had a modest negative percentage change during the year of an extreme weather event; of these effects, those that reached an α=0·05 significance level included calcium, folate, thiamin, vitamin B6, and vitamin C, with nutrient supply changes ranging from −0·40 to −1·73% of the average supply. The effect of an extreme weather event was especially magnified among landlocked developing countries and low-income food deficit countries, with significant nutrient supply changes ranging from −1·61 to −7·57% of the average supply. Furthermore, the observed nutrient supply deficits in landlocked developing countries constituted a large percentage (ranging from 1·95 to 39·19%) of what a healthy child's sufficient average dietary intake should be. Interpretation: The global effects of extreme weather events on nutrient supply found in this study are modest in isolation; however, in the context of nutrient needs for healthy child development in low-income settings, the effects observed are substantial. Funding: Australian-American Fulbright Commission.
AB - Background: To date, the effects of extreme weather events on nutrient supply within the population have not been quantified. In this study, we investigated micronutrient, macronutrient, and fibre supply changes during 175 extreme weather events within 87 countries in the year that a major extreme weather event occurred, with a targeted focus on low-income settings. Methods: We collected data from the International Disasters Database and the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply model for the period 1961–2010, and applied superposed epoch analysis to calculate the percentage change in nutrient supply during the year of an extreme weather event relative to its historical context. We composited globally and by subgroup (EU, landlocked developing countries, least developed countries, low-income food deficit countries, and net food-importing developing countries). Lastly, we reported nutrient supply changes in terms of recommended dietary allowance for children aged 1–3 years. Findings: Globally, all micronutrient supplies had a modest negative percentage change during the year of an extreme weather event; of these effects, those that reached an α=0·05 significance level included calcium, folate, thiamin, vitamin B6, and vitamin C, with nutrient supply changes ranging from −0·40 to −1·73% of the average supply. The effect of an extreme weather event was especially magnified among landlocked developing countries and low-income food deficit countries, with significant nutrient supply changes ranging from −1·61 to −7·57% of the average supply. Furthermore, the observed nutrient supply deficits in landlocked developing countries constituted a large percentage (ranging from 1·95 to 39·19%) of what a healthy child's sufficient average dietary intake should be. Interpretation: The global effects of extreme weather events on nutrient supply found in this study are modest in isolation; however, in the context of nutrient needs for healthy child development in low-income settings, the effects observed are substantial. Funding: Australian-American Fulbright Commission.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85073252290&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30193-7
DO - 10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30193-7
M3 - Article
C2 - 31625515
AN - SCOPUS:85073252290
SN - 2542-5196
VL - 3
SP - 429
EP - 438
JO - The Lancet Planetary Health
JF - The Lancet Planetary Health
IS - 10
ER -
