Abstract
A scenario is an internally consistent narrative about the future, developed using
a structured approach with clear and consistent logic to consider systematically
how uncertainties and surprises in the future might lead to alternative plausible
outcomes. Scenarios can share meaning at deeper levels than logic-based
communication through their basis in narrative. Scenario development draws on
a range of information, quantitative modelling, expert judgement and creative
thinking. These ingredients are combined using procedures that ensure that three
key requirements are satisfied: legitimacy (that the information base is reliable and
the models used are sound), saliency (that the questions or future uncertainties
probed by the scenarios are pertinent) and credibility within specified boundaries
(that the scenario is considered plausible by participants in the scenario-building
process and by observers). A crucial starting point in scenario development is the
specification of a focal question. To exemplify these concepts, we consider scenarios
arising from three different focal questions, respectively concerning approaches to
climate change, governance and complexification.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | Negotiating our future: Living scenarios for Australia to 2050 |
| Place of Publication | Canberra, Australia |
| Publisher | Australian Academy of Science |
| Pages | 115-151 |
| Number of pages | 37 |
| Edition | 1 |
| ISBN (Print) | 9780858473409 |
| Publication status | Published - 2013 |
