Abstract
This thesis investigates the relationship between technological change and job polarisation in Vietnam from 2010 to 2019, a period of significant economic transformation and digital advancement. While extensive research has documented job polarisation in developed economies, where middle-skill jobs decline relative to high-skill and low-skill positions, this phenomenon remains understudied in developing countries. This research addresses this gap by examining whether and how routine-biased technological change (RBTC) manifests in Vietnam’s evolving labour market.The study employs a comprehensive methodological approach that combines data from Vietnam’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) (2010–2019), the Vietnam Information and Computer Technology (ICT) Index, and gross regional domestic product across Vietnam’s 63 provinces. Using a combination of quadratic regression models and panel data techniques, including fixed effects and generalised method of moments estimation, the research tests how technological advancement affects employment patterns and wage structures across different skill levels, regions, and economic sectors.
The findings reveal that job polarisation in Vietnam is primarily sector-specific rather than economy-wide, with the service sector demonstrating the most pronounced polarisation pattern. While high-skill and low-skill service jobs have expanded, middle-skill positions have declined, especially in sectors experiencing rapid technological transformation. Interestingly, wage polarisation precedes employment polarisation, suggesting that wages respond more quickly to technological change than employment structures. The impact of information and communication technology varies across skill levels, with positive effects on high-skill jobs through skill complementarity and negative effects on middle-skill positions vulnerable to automation.
This research makes three significant contributions: theoretically extending RBTC frameworks to developing economies, methodologically integrating multiple datasets to capture technology-driven labour market transformations, and empirically documenting Vietnam’s unique patterns of sector-specific job polarisation. The findings have important implications for policymakers seeking to manage technological transitions while promoting inclusive economic development, highlighting the need for sector-specific workforce development strategies and education reforms that prepare workers for a changing labour market.
| Date of Award | 2025 |
|---|---|
| Original language | English |
| Supervisor | Riyana MIRANTI (Supervisor), Yogi VIDYATTAMA (Supervisor) & Jennifer M.I. Loh (Supervisor) |